Thread by @firstresponses

Memphis/Shelby County
Covid Wk-In-Review

tl;dr
*

1/

Let's start with the national picture.

This is from @COVID19Tracking.

It's pretty bleak. Cases are growing exponentially, much faster than tests. Hospitalizations are at an all-time high. And we're avg'ing 1400 covid deaths each day.

2/

But @youyanggu estimates that the true number of cases is 3.3 times more than what's being reported.

FYI, Youyang had the most accurate covid model in existence. He's switched from forecasting to "nowcasting," estimating what *is* happening rather than predicting what will.

3/

Here are cases and tests per week for the past 8wks.
Short story: Cases are spiking, tests aren't.

Over 4wks
Cases +54%
Tests +9%

6wks
Cases +171%
Tests +26%

8wks
Cases +220%
Tests +51%

4/

Here are daily cases by report date.

Three things to note:

1) We set a record-high 7-day avg of 442 cases/day on Thursday.

2) We set a record-high 14-day avg of 401 cases/day today.

3) So this was the worst wk in the local pandemic.

5/

Let me also note that the 7-day avg dropped all the way down to 94 cases/day on Oct5.

Over the next 6wks, avg daily cases more than quadrupled.

That's right, there are 4x more cases each day than at our low point 6wks ago.

6/

Here are daily cases by test date. It lags by 6days bc tests trickle in for a wk.

So this is from last wk. (We don't have this wk's data yet.)

And according to this, last wk was the worst wk in the local pandemic.

7/

Our case positivity is at 23.2%, down from a record-high 23.4% yesterday. The high point this summer was 17.0%, which we surpassed in late Oct.

And our test positivity is up to 11.1%. Apparently, that hit 12.7% this summer.

8/

But we know that, at 10%, we're missing a significant number of cases.

And we know Youyang Gu, the best covid modeler, is estimating that there are 3.3 more daily cases in the US than reported.

So, conservatively, our 400 is likely over 1200 cases per day in actuality.

9/

Did I mention the fact that we set new records for covid hospitalizations this week?

And every bed being used by a covid patient is one fewer when a family has a car accident, a man has a heart attack, an elderly woman falls, a teenager has an asthma attack.

10/

The surrounding rural counties are doing even worse than us. This is part of why our hospitals are filling up, by the way. Rural areas depend on metro hospitals.

11/

The big problem, though, isn't beds.

It's staff.

We can open the field hospital at the old CA bldg. But there was a nat'l nursing shortage...before the pandemic.

NYC was able to recruit nurses in the Spring, but now that cases are spiking everywhere, that's not an option.

12/

So you'd think maybe our leaders would be in crisis-mode, right?

You'd think, but you'd be wrong. They just opened strip clubs last week.

https://twitter.com/MemphoNewsLady/status/1326325951052046343

13/

And they didn't announce any new restrictions during their briefing on Thursday.

Instead, once again, they dropped a new health directive quietly (not on their socials) on a Friday night.

Oh, and it doesn't go into effect until Monday.

shelbytnhealth.com/DocumentCenter…

14/

This is not the first time they've quietly dropped a new health directive on a Friday night, by the way. It's becoming a pattern.

But I don't know why you wouldn't want to announce the changes, explain them, and take questions from reporters.

15/

The new restrictions are a step in the right direction, but as @Theresa_Chapple notes, the mixed messages being sent are a problem.

Why is it "okay" to eat in a restaurant but not at your parents' house for Thanksgiving?

https://twitter.com/Theresa_Chapple/status/1329933212500570114

16/

Please don't eat inside someone else's house - or let someone eat inside yours. We know that's one of the riskiest things you can do. Small social gatherings are a major source of covid spread.

Thanksgiving will have to look different this year.

17/

Even getting tested is no guarantee.

Say you get tested on Tuesday and get a negative result on Wednesday.

Well, you could get infected on Wednesday afternoon. Or you could have been infected on Monday night, so maybe it was too early to register on a test.

18/

Just don't.

Indoors anything is 20x riskier than outdoors, so why not bring tables & chairs outside?

This is what my family did growing up anyway bc of space.

Now, you still want to distance from those who don't live with you. But you can still enjoy Thanksgiving safely.

19/

It seems very likely now that we will reach 500 avg cases per day before Christmas.

20/

You can see here that we are un-flattening the curve.

We never really flattened it to begin with, but we did bend it downwards in August and September.

But it started rising again in October into November.

21/

It took 100+ days, to July1, to get our first 10k cases.
Then just 28 days, to July29, for the second 10k.

We hit the next 10k on Sept19, 42 days later.
The next 10k took 62 days, Nov10.

But the next will take 23-26 days, Dec3-6.
Then 19-24 days, Dec21-29.
Then 16-19 days.

22/

Covid is closing in.

Two students I know have covid. A colleague's dad. A few in my own family. A friend's dad. Another friend's aunt, uncle, & cousins. A deacon at church.

And that's just this week!

We literally just got the call that a church member died today.

23/

The government is not coming to save us anytime soon.

Our lame-duck president does not care.
The Republicans in Congress do not care.

And local govt has to balance its books. W/o tax revenue from biz, they will have to lay off fire fighters and police. So I'm sympathetic.

24/

In Thursday's briefing, though, Dr. Randolph blamed people for doing wrong...and pleaded with people to do right.

But people are going out to eat, to the gym, to dinner parties, & to strip clubs...none of which is banned!

He needs to look in the mirror.

25/

For the past month, I've been going into the bldg to work w/the students with disabilities who opted to come in. Not many did, but it definitely helped the few.

I had already told my boss I did not feel safe coming back after T'giving. Yesterday, they made the call.

26/

We're back to all-virtual for the rest of the semester.

January is still "possible," but I can't envision a world in which it's safe.

Same goes for SCS. I can't imagine them opening the doors in January when they didn't in September.

27/

Us parents need some help, though.

Kids too.

Desperately.

My daughter needs to get out of the house. She needs to socialize with peers. She needs to get away from us.

I need her to go spend the night away, just to get a break.

28/

But there is hope. There is light at the end of the tunnel. And we can see it.

Don't expect schools to open this year, but it looks like we might be able to return to school by August.

Until then, stay home if possible, stay as distant as possible, and wear a damn mask.

29/29