Thread by @therealarod1984

What do "normal" state Presidential returns look like?

THREAD 1/n

Many have asked about other states & what their curves look like. Here are 4 states, 2 of which for sure did mail-in voting - FL, MN, MA, IL. I could do 10 more, they are all the same.

Here we go...

1/n

2/n
Let's look at two fairly close races, FL and MN. FL did mail-in. These are the curves from election night into the early AM.

Mail-in ballots are counted all day. Computers are counting the election day voters. So, this notion of "waiting" to count mail-in is nonsense.

3/n

Here are two other states Biden won easily. MA and IL. MA does mail in. The ratios of incoming vote stay relatively consistent, mail in or not. Yes there are some 70-30 type batches in there, but in a close election, its consistent.

4/n

I'll leave this thread open ended. Maybe I have time to present a few more states, they are all going to be similar except for 4 or 5 states we all know about.

This is what state returns have looked like for a hundred years, mail in or no.

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"Normal" State Election Returns - Part 3

Let's do TX and CA. CA was an auto mail-in ballot state this year.

Any catching up a candidate does during the election, big city vs rural, etc, that happens within hours. Not 3 days later. CA processed mail ballots just fine

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"Normal" State Election Returns - Part 4

Ohio and CO. CO was an auto mail-in ballot state as well.

This is what all these state returns look like. Ballot counting settles on a ratio within a few hours of returns. Mail-in or no. I'll hopefully have time for a few more.

7/n

"Normal" State Election Returns - Part 5

IA and WA. A battleground and a mail-in state.

Ballot counting - mail-in or ED, settles on a ratio as the sample size increases. IA took 90 minutes for the rural vote to impact the sample sufficiently for a Trump win. Not 3 days.