For David Dinkins, who passed away at 93 yesterday, the path to his historic election as NYC mayor began in the 1988 NY presidential primary.
Jesse Jackson came to the April primary hot off a big win in Michigan, and third term Mayor Ed Koch made it his mission to stop him:
Jackson, who had been caught referring to NYC as "Hymietown" a few years earlier, was already a controversial figure. Koch's relentless attacks on him overshadowed the campaign and helped to polarize the electorate along familiar demographic lines:
Jackson ended up losing New York state handily to Michael Dukakis in the 4/19/88 primary, a result that effectively sealed the nomination for Dukakis.
But, in a surprise, Jackson, with overwhelming black turnout and support, carried New York City, a clear rebuke of the mayor:
The NYC result instantly revealed Koch's vulnerability to a Democratic primary challenge in his 1989 re-election campaign -- something that Jackson, the morning after the primary, hinted that he'd get behind:
And within weeks, potential Koch challengers began eyeing the race, including the co-chair of Jackson's campaign, Manhattan Borough President David Dinkins:
17 months after the '88 primary: Manhattan Borough president David Dinkins defeats Mayor Ed Koch in the 1989 NYC Democratic mayoral primary:
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With a few House races still outstanding and likely to be settled by a handful of votes (with potential legal maneuvering to come), here's a look back at one of the closest, most contested and most politically consequential House races of all time: Indiana's Bloody 8th in 1984...
The race pitted first-term Democrat Frank McCloskey against 28-year-old GOP challenger Rick McIntyre in a notoriously marginal Indiana district that spanned from Bloomington to Evansville. On Election Night, it was too close to call…
When all votes were initially tallied several days after Election Day, McCloskey was up by 72 votes. McIntyre, though, noted potential tabulation errors in several counties and filed for recounts and the GOP Sec. of State refused to certify McCloskey as the winner:
“Well, it wasn’t 1980 -- but it was a lot like 2008”:
“Biden really ran up the score in metro areas and got the turnout Hillary couldn't in Milwaukee and Detroit, but wow -- Trump really did hold on to that rural white support":
Looking back at '16, NBC/WSJ asked several times about how the Scalia seat should be filled:
February 2016
Vote on Obama pick 43%
Leave vacant & wait for new president 42%
March 2016
Vote on Obama 48%
Leave and wait 37%
April 2016
Vote on Obama pick 52%
Leave and wait 30%
Except after Scalia's death, the Trump/GOP position in '16 was broadly unpopular. It's remembered as successful because he won and more Trump voters cited the court as their top issue. But again what I wonder is....
In the summer of '16 and again this summer, Pew asked what issues voters consider "very important," with SCOTUS importance rising 4 points among Dem voters and falling 9 w/ Trump voters:
2016
Clinton voters 62%
Trump voters 70%
2020
Biden voters 66%
Trump voters 61%
While the court was more central to Trump voters in '16, Trump also fared poorly in '16 polls on broad SCOTUS questions. The Oct. '16 NBC/WSJ poll asked which candidate would be better when it came to making SCOTUS appointments:
Clinton 48%
Trump 38%
Like everyone, I'm curious if this new fight will scramble the numbers - if R's calling this very important will spike, if the Dem number will ratchet up too, if there will end being a disparity between the parties, etc. But I also wonder what all of this is really measuring.
"If your name were Edward Moore, your candidacy would be a joke."
8/27/62 Boston Globe front page after 30-year-old Ted Kennedy's Democratic primary opponent, state Attorney General Edward McCormack (nephew of the Speaker of the House), made his famous debate attack:
It was desperate move by McCormack, who got clobbered by Kennedy in the Democratic primary a few weeks later. Kennedy went on to win nine more Massachusetts Democratic primaries (8 for the Senate and one for president) and finished his career 10-0 in them.
June 1946: 29-year-old WW II vet John F. Kennedy wins the Democratic primary in MA's 11th congressional district
Here is the history (Technically RFK finished 2nd in the '68 primary, but he wasn't on the ballot and had encouraged his supporters to vote for McCarthy):
The closest to a Kennedy loss in this time was probably the '98 Gov race, which then-Rep. Joe Kennedy II was preparing to run in. But polls were very bad for him in '97 (there was a scandal at the time involving his brother Michael) and he opted not to run.