fly4dat Profile picture
2 Nov, 7 tweets, 2 min read
1/ $FCAU accepted Honda in their European CO2 pool with #Tesla.

Some think it's bullish for $TSLA. In fact, it's neutral at best.

$TSLAQ
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
2/ FCA has bought all the credits from Tesla. Tesla couldn't have invited Honda to the pool alone.

Either FCA sells the excess credits that it committed itself to buy from Tesla to Honda, because it is now obvious that they don't need that many due to COVID, 500e and PSA next yr
3/ Or FCA agreed that Tesla and Honda cut a deal, but they get a pass on some of their obligations.

This could be marginally bullish for Tesla if they could sell these credits at a higher price, but I don't think that to be the case.
4/ Renault and Volvo have both announced that they have excess credits. PSA hasn't, but most probably they have, too. Possibly others.

Buyers are Merc and JLR. Prices should be low, or at least much lower than what FCA paid to Tesla.

See my earlier thread on the FCA-Tesla deal.
5/ It could be seen as bullish that Honda doesn't comply on its own.

But Tesla alone can't sell credits in Europe until at least 2022. Also, Honda is tiny in Europe. If FCA couldn't sell to Merc, it means that Merc bought credits for much cheaper than what FCA could offer.
6/ FCA should have lots of excess credits from Tesla.

We might be able to get some insights from FCA's next 6-K or what.

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More from @fly4dat

4 Nov
1/ While you were watching elections, #Tesla silently hasn't shipped more cars to Europe🇪🇺. 4 ships have departed so far (from SFO and SHA combined), which is, surprisingly, only slightly delayed vs 19Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ There have been 8 ships to Europe in 19Q4. I don't see a reason why they couldn't send 4 more (or even more) this time, but there are no indications for that. 3 are more likely.

However, after 19Q3, "supply-constrained" Tesla started Q4 with 6.2k+ cars in inventory in Europe.
3/ That helped them deliver a record 30k+ M3's in 19Q4. With an estimated ~1.350 cars in inventory going into 20Q4, even 8 ships aren't enough to match 19Q4.

It remains a question why they don't send more ships. Supply should be ample. I dare to ask: demand?
Read 9 tweets
26 Oct
$TSLA weekly 🇪🇺 UPDATE

♣Very slow shipping (2 ships QTD vs 4 in 19Q4)
♦️NO: ID.3 sells more in 6 wks than #Tesla 3SX combined in whole 2020
♠MIC SR+ to replace MiUS in EU
♥Strong German demand seen

🃏Giga Berlin chief fired

$TSLAQ
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
1/ Speaking of credits, do you still have crows around? I've eaten so many.

The whole thing still doesn't make sense.
2/ @jaberwock2 estimated 60k cars to be needed for FCA to offset emissions this year. My guess is much lower (pre-COVID). They were working on the RNO deal at the time they signed the TSLA one, so they mustn't have signed anything definite for 2021 and beyond.
3/ FCA is making the new 500e's for around €20k (ex allocated fixed costs). If they gave a free 500e with every petrol 500 for the first 60k buyers, they'd be almost at half the cost.
Read 4 tweets
13 Oct
1/ VW started to deliver ID.3 in Norway (and most other markets) exactly a month ago. Misses outdoing full year Model 3 deliveries by a full day (less than 100 units). Sad.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ #Tesla M3 won't be in the top 5 in Norway *this full year*.

Not leading the Dutch chart.

In fact, besides the UK, Sweden, Switzerland, Austria, Denmark and Iceland (and maybe Luxembourg), Tesla doesn't lead anywhere in Europe. Even this list will shrink in Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
3/ In Europe, it's over for Tesla.

Bulls will say it's Giga Berlin. But it was COVID, the NL surge, Raven for the Model S, you name it. There are always excuses. Berlin won't change the trend long term unless Tesla cuts prices heavily.

Read 4 tweets
13 Oct
1/ $TSLA sold 11,329 MIC in China🇨🇳 in Sep, bringing quarterly totals to 33,891. This compares to 29,953 in Q2, a growth of 9.6%, while production grew 13.3% and unsold inventory doubled.

The Chinese NEV market grew 67.7% YoY in Sep.

A thread.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ With this, geo breakdown looks as follows. Overall growth is again driven by China, but Tesla could eke out some growth ex-China too.
3/ However, all that ex-China growth came from Model Y. Without Model Y, ex-China Tesla shrunk by 19.9%

In the US, Model 3 sales fell by a whopping 42.7%

$TSLA $TSLAQ
Read 11 tweets
4 Oct
1/ #Tesla bulls are cheering the 10th Chinese price cut this year, celebrating the "passing on cost savings to customers". Let's assume it's Musk's good heart the reason for the cuts, not #nodemand at current price levels*.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Price cuts >> total battery costs.

Now imagine for a second how utterly inefficient production must have been if there could be such cost savings.

cleantechnica.com/2020/08/21/elo…
4/ Now imagine if
a) price cuts are bigger than "efficiency gains", eating into the eterna 23% gross margin. If only 3% of the price cut eats into this, that's a 13% GM reduction.
b) relative margins stay at the eternal 23%, what do absolute margins do?
Read 4 tweets

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