The narrative is that thermal coal is in terminal decline & will be replaced by renewables and nat gas moving forward
Coals in decline in developed countries, but we often overlook the fact that developed countries are the minority globally
Coal still accounts for almost 40% of global electricity production
It pays to remember is that developed countries comprise of 1.3B people while developing is 6.5B people which based on demographics is on the way to 8-8.5B people by 2050.
This doubles the energy system.
Where does coal demand stand currently?
There is 1,790,642 MW operating globally (1m MW is in China)
There is 199,572 MW under construction or +11%
There is 297,829 MW planned or +17%
So in total, this means adding nearly 1/3 to the current global coal plants
Decent growth..
The European Union has 47,574 MW of coal in operation
Other Asia has an equivalent amount under construction
India also has an equivalent amount under construction
China has 2x this under construction & 4x this planned
A total of 4x Europes coal plants are under construction!
Hence why what happens in developed countries to coal is largely irrelevant for demand.
Developing countries is a growth story and will be for some time yet.
History has always involved progressing up the energy density ladder and MSR technology fits this bill
Six considerations
1. Public perception
2. Safety
3. Cost
4. Efficiency
5. Waste
6. High heat processes
1. Public perception
Nuclear needs a rebrand & PR makeover
When people hear nuclear the likes of the Chernobyl series or nuclear weapons spring to mind.
MSRs achieve this and address both safety concerns and waste concerns (the two most common nuclear reservations).
2. Safety
MSRs are "walk-away safe"
An operator couldn't melt it down even if they wanted to
MSRs aren't vulnerable to a terrorist attack as they work at atmospheric pressure, so a breach would cause the fuel to solidify without a significant release of radioactivity
“Show me the incentives and I will show you the outcome.” - Charlie Munger
Ensuring incentives are aligned positions you for better outcomes.
At the minimum know what everyone's incentives are before entering any deal/investment.
2. Asymmetry
Position for ideally large (unknown) upside and small (known) downside
"If you ‘have optionality,’ you don’t have much need for what is commonly called intelligence, knowledge, insight, skills and these complicated things that take place in our brain cells"-N Taleb