Ferg Profile picture
25 Nov, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Thread on #coal

Thermal Coal Demand

The narrative is that thermal coal is in terminal decline & will be replaced by renewables and nat gas moving forward

Coals in decline in developed countries, but we often overlook the fact that developed countries are the minority globally
Coal still accounts for almost 40% of global electricity production

It pays to remember is that developed countries comprise of 1.3B people while developing is 6.5B people which based on demographics is on the way to 8-8.5B people by 2050.

This doubles the energy system.
Where does coal demand stand currently?

There is 1,790,642 MW operating globally (1m MW is in China)

There is 199,572 MW under construction or +11%

There is 297,829 MW planned or +17%

So in total, this means adding nearly 1/3 to the current global coal plants

Decent growth..
The European Union has 47,574 MW of coal in operation

Other Asia has an equivalent amount under construction

India also has an equivalent amount under construction

China has 2x this under construction & 4x this planned

A total of 4x Europes coal plants are under construction!
Hence why what happens in developed countries to coal is largely irrelevant for demand.

Developing countries is a growth story and will be for some time yet.

Take the time to have a play on carbon briefs interactive website: carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-…

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More from @trader_ferg

24 Nov
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Molten Salt Reactors look to be a game-changer

History has always involved progressing up the energy density ladder and MSR technology fits this bill

Six considerations

1. Public perception

2. Safety

3. Cost

4. Efficiency

5. Waste

6. High heat processes
1. Public perception

Nuclear needs a rebrand & PR makeover

When people hear nuclear the likes of the Chernobyl series or nuclear weapons spring to mind.

MSRs achieve this and address both safety concerns and waste concerns (the two most common nuclear reservations).
2. Safety

MSRs are "walk-away safe"

An operator couldn't melt it down even if they wanted to

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A history of oil with The Economist covers

It's one of the better contrarian indicators

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Impressive timing. ImageImage
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Once again impressive timing! ImageImage
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19 Nov
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Charles Ellis had the idea of the "losers game"

Professional tennis is a "winners game" i.e. you win by hitting winning shots

Amateur tennis is a "loser's game" i.e. you win by not making mistakes.

Investing is a loser's game.

Avoiding making stupid mistakes is key
The 1st rule is to avoid anything that prevents you staying at the table

Always be long time & avoid margin

Rick Guerin was Buffet and Mungers equal in intelligence yet he wanted to get rich quicker & used margin

He got margin called in 73 & sold all $BRK to Buffet at bottom
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Cashflow?

Cash levels?

Debt levels?

When are debts maturing?

Will they be able to roll at the same terms?

Historic rate of dilution if small miner?

Read the 10Q and 10K do the work!
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Damn this comparison is chilling from Neil Postman

I need to read a Brave New World following reading 1984 a few months ago.

“We were keeping our eye on 1984. When the year came & the prophecy didn't, thoughtful Americans sang softly in praise of themselves.
The roots of liberal democracy had held. Wherever else the terror had happened, we at least had not been visited by Orwellian nightmares.

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CYA=Cover your ass
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