Aurobindo CMP 868
The company is developing:
✍️14 Biosimilars (5 of these expected to launch by FY25 with a US$20 market size)
✍️8 inhalers (US market size is >$10 Bn)
✍️Pneumcoccal Conjugate Vaccine (US$6.2 bn global market size)
✍️3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)
Co also developing 50 Other Complex generics
✍️Peptides (US$14.5 Bn Mkt size-Global $2.5 bn size for 5 filed ANDAs and Global $12bn for 10 under development)
✍️Topicals (US$4 Bn Mkt size-26 products under development currently out of total 37 products identified for development)
✍️Transdermal patches (US$3 Bn Global Mkt size) : 8 products under development (Clinical trials to begin for the 1st product in FY21)
✍️Nasals (US$1.3 Bn Mkt size) : 1 approved + 4 under development (Filing will be done over the course of next 3 yrs)
#Aurobindopharma
#Growth
Biosimilars
✍️14 biosimilars are frm oncology, respiratory, rheumatology & ophthalmology therapy
✍️1st few launches are likely to be in oncology & ophthalmology molecule
✍️Likely to launch its 1st 2 biosimilars in Europe
✍️This biz has a high gestation period & involves high risk
✍️Aurobindo's biosimilars program is 2nd only to Biocon (28 biosimilars under development), in the indian pharma space)
✍️Expected incremental sales contribution would be in the range of ~30% to 80% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS report)
Respiratory
✍️Developing 8 inhalers (market size of USD 10 bn)
✍️Patents seem to have already expired on most of the large MDI inhalers
✍️Expected incremental sales would be in the range of ~4% to 10% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS report)
Depot Injectables
✍️Developing generic versions of 3 depot injectables (US$3.3 bn market size)
✍️Expected incremental sales would be in the range of 2% to 6% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS report)

#AUROPHARMA
Pneumcoccal vaccines and other products
✍️Expected incremental sales from Pneumococcal vaccines and other complex generics (Peptides, Topicals, Transdermal Patches and Nasals) would be 12% to 34% vs FY20 topline. Based on 5% to 15% market share assumption (As per GS Report)
Q2FY21
✍️Sustained performance in the ARV category & the traction in US biz
✍️Anitbiotic APIs saw muted demand (50% exposure)
✍️Company filed for 24 ANDAs (10 Injectables)
✍️ANDAs unde review, tentatively approved, potentially cater to an addressable market size of ~$92 Bn
Injectables Portfolio
✍️Co's steady execution on its injectables portfolio has been improving the quality of biz in the US
✍️In Jun'20, 22% of Co's products marketed in the US were injectables compared to 12% in Jun'15
✍️20% of Co's revenue comes from injectables v/s 6% in 2015
✍️Generated 6% PAT margin frm its injectable biz vs corporate avg of 12%
✍️Injecatble biz RoE was ~55% vs corproate avg of 19%
✍️Co represents ~42% of US Injectable sales made by Indian listed cos
✍️Due to higher entry barriers, Injectable pricing has been more stable than orals
✍️Injectable & Inhaler Generics are comfortably outgrowing orals in US Generics mkt
✍️Co is having 5 commercialized Injectables formulations facilities & 5 Injectables API facilities
✍️Injectable generics has less than 4 mkt participants per product compared to 7 in Oral generics
Key development to watch
✍️Traction in Biosimilars
✍️Turnaround in the EU biz leads to improvement in the EBITDA margin
✍️Acquired biz of Apotex provides access to newer mkts (likely to breakeven in H2FY21)
✍️Turnaround in Apotex will lead to improvement in OPM of European biz!!
Valuation
✍️Consistently outgrown IND generic exporting peers over the past 5 yrs
✍️Likely to turn net debt free by FY22
✍️Co is currently trading at ~14x fwd PE (40% disc. vs Indian Generic Peers)

Source: GS Research, AR 2019-20
Disc: Not a buy/sell Reco. Just for study purpose

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More from @ketanmba03

29 Nov
The Journey of Vini Costmetics
✍️1985: Darshan Patel joins his father's co Paras Pharmaceuticals
✍️1994: Launched Krack which was an overnight success
✍️1996-2000: Launched a range of products(D-Cold, Borosoft,Ring Guard,Itch Guard)
✍️2002: Launched Livon-IND's 1st hair detangler
✍️2005: Set Wet hairstyling gel is launched and later a deodrant under the same brand name
✍️2006: Patel exits Paras. He sold his 24% stake to Actis Capital for $43 Mn
✍️2007: Registered Vini Costmetics and spend the next couple of years doing consumer research
✍️2010: Vini Costmetics was launched; started selling pharma products; WhiteTone was launched; Paras Pharmaceuticasl was acquired by Reckitt Benckiser Group for INR 3260 Crs
✍️2011: Launched Fogg deodorants; Bay Capital came on board, investing 30 Crs
Read 5 tweets
23 Nov
✍️IND's Renewable Energy sector is world's 4th most attractive RE Mkt
✍️Globally, Cost to generate Solar & Wind Energy dropped by 90% & 70% in past 10 yrs
✍️Costs almost at par with NG
✍️RE is estimated to comprise ~60% of IND’s installed power capacity by 2030 (~24% at present)
✍️Global Investments in RE: $282 Bn in 2019
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✍️By 2040, IND aims to generate ~49% of total Electricity frm RE
✍️FDI inflow in the Indian non-conventional “energy sector” stood at $9.22B in last 10 years
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✍️Estimated to attract investment ~$80B in nxt 4 yrs
✍️The past 9 months have slowed the Solar Energy installations by 80% v/s 2019 due to Covid
✍️2020-Cumulative solar capacity is ~37 GW
✍️2022-Tgt is 100 GW
Read 7 tweets
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Valiant Organics CMP 2795
✍️A Specialty Chemical Manufacturing Company.
✍️The products of the company find several applications mainly in the agro-chemical, pharmaceuticals, rubber, dyes, pigment & in the making of veterinary drugs
✍️Fully integrated manufacturing facilities
✍️Revenue: Domestic 85% & Export 15%
(Agro 40%,Specialty 30%,Dyes+Pigments 20%,API 10%)
✍️Rev. share from API is likely to increase in coming yrs
✍️One of the most competitive producers of Chlorination, Ammonolysis,Acylation,Hydrogenation & Methoxylation based specialty products
✍️Inorganic growth & organic capital expansion without much increase in Debt Equity
✍️Leveraging a de-risked biz model
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✍️Ability to forward integrate by adding high-margin & high value products to maximise growth
Read 9 tweets
26 Apr
IndusInd Bank CMP 380
✍ Stock fell frm 2038 high to 235
✍ Decreasing deposits
✍ Rising bad loans
✍ High exposure to telecom companies & NBFCs
✍ Exit of a long-time CEO
✍ Crisis at #yesbank has put question mark on rest of the private lenders
✍ Stock corrected 68% in March
Journey from 2035 to 235
✍ Dec 2017 - RBI imposes INR 3 Crs penalty for under-reporting of FY16 NPAs

✍ Apr 2018 - Reports divergence in FY17 NPAs of INR 1350 Crs frm RBI's estimates

✍ Sep 2018 - Discloses exposure of INR 3000 Crs to IL&FS, a crisis-ridden NBFC
#IndusindBank
✍ July 2019 - Completes merger with Bharat Financial Inclusion

✍ Jan 2020 - Posts disappointing Q3, provisions up by 72%, gross NPAs more than double YoY, asset quality worsens, Mr Sobti set to retire in Mar'20

✍ Feb 2020 - Moody's downgrades Outlook to Negative from Stable
Read 5 tweets
25 Apr
The API Industry
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✍️ India has highest no. of US FDA approved plants (665) outside of the US
✍️ India has 44% of global abbreviated new drug applications (ANDA)
✍️ India needs to proactively boost the API Industry
✍️ The Indian pharma industry is the world's 3rd largest in terms of vol
✍️ India's API industry is ranked the 3rd largest in the world
✍️ India fulfils 20% of global demand for generic medicines in terms of Vol & supplies over 60% of global demand of various vaccines & ARV drugs
✍️ Indian bulk drug industry has grown at CAGR of 8.6% over 2016-2020. It is further expeacted to grow at similar CAGR during 2020-2024
✍️ The import of APIs has risen at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2012-2019
✍️ Bulk drug import reached a value of INR ~249 billion in 2019

@Harrshit1
Read 15 tweets
22 Mar
Thank you, #Coronavirus

Thank you for shaking us & showing us we're dependent on something much bigger than we think..!!

Thank you for making us appreciate the luxury we lived in..abundance of products...freedom...health...and realizing we were taking it for granted...!!
Thank you, #Coronavirus for stopping us...to make us see how lost we were in the "busy-ness"

Not having time for the most basic things..

Thank you for allowing us to put aside all our problems we thought were so important and showing us what is actually important..
Thank you, #Coronavirus for stopping the transport..

The Earth was begging us to look at the pollution for a very long time.. we didn't listen...

Thank you for all the FEAR
It has been a global disease for years but not many of us wanted to face it and now we have to face it...
Read 4 tweets

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