✍️IND's Renewable Energy sector is world's 4th most attractive RE Mkt
✍️Globally, Cost to generate Solar & Wind Energy dropped by 90% & 70% in past 10 yrs
✍️Costs almost at par with NG
✍️RE is estimated to comprise ~60% of IND’s installed power capacity by 2030 (~24% at present)
✍️Global Investments in RE: $282 Bn in 2019
✍️45% cming frm China, who aims to get 62% energy via RE in nxt 3 yrs
✍️By 2040, IND aims to generate ~49% of total Electricity frm RE
✍️FDI inflow in the Indian non-conventional “energy sector” stood at $9.22B in last 10 years
✍️More than $42B has been invested in IND’s “RE” sector since 2014
✍️Estimated to attract investment ~$80B in nxt 4 yrs
✍️The past 9 months have slowed the Solar Energy installations by 80% v/s 2019 due to Covid
✍️2020-Cumulative solar capacity is ~37 GW
✍️2022-Tgt is 100 GW
✍️India’s RE capacity tgts a) 2022: 175 GW b) 2030: 450 GW
✍️RIL & Adani Green are also scaling efforts
✍️Stock of Adani G up 25x in 1.5 yrs
✍️RIL aims to be net carbon 0 by 2035
✍️Only 2 or 3 cos taking a big chunk from plate of Green Energy
✍️Gov needs to support small startups
✍️Global Funds grabbing bites of India's RE assets:
a) KKR launches Virescent for RE investments
b) EQT and Temasek set up O2 Power, a $500Mn RE platform
c) Other players actively involved include Goldman Sachs, Brookfield, SoftBank, CPPIB, JERA, GIC #renewables #renewableenergy
✍️ReNew Power, Warburg Pincus backed CleanMax & Morgan Stanley owned Continuum Wind Energy, few key RE Indian players aiming for IPOs soon
✍️Adani Green's $6 Bn solar project has no buyers & even SECI doesn't guarantee any power purchase agreement. #adanigreen #Adani #Reliance
✍️IND is still a coal based energy consumer & it is still lagging behind in the targets it has set for adoption of RE
✍️With exploration of new resources to create green energy,surely IND's journey towards sustainability wil b smooth & fast.
Credit: Rony Saha (The representative)
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Valiant Organics CMP 2795
✍️A Specialty Chemical Manufacturing Company.
✍️The products of the company find several applications mainly in the agro-chemical, pharmaceuticals, rubber, dyes, pigment & in the making of veterinary drugs
✍️Fully integrated manufacturing facilities
✍️Revenue: Domestic 85% & Export 15%
(Agro 40%,Specialty 30%,Dyes+Pigments 20%,API 10%)
✍️Rev. share from API is likely to increase in coming yrs
✍️One of the most competitive producers of Chlorination, Ammonolysis,Acylation,Hydrogenation & Methoxylation based specialty products
✍️Inorganic growth & organic capital expansion without much increase in Debt Equity
✍️Leveraging a de-risked biz model
✍️The synergistic acquisition of Amarjyot chemical ltd last year
✍️Ability to forward integrate by adding high-margin & high value products to maximise growth
IndusInd Bank CMP 380
✍ Stock fell frm 2038 high to 235
✍ Decreasing deposits
✍ Rising bad loans
✍ High exposure to telecom companies & NBFCs
✍ Exit of a long-time CEO
✍ Crisis at #yesbank has put question mark on rest of the private lenders
✍ Stock corrected 68% in March
Journey from 2035 to 235
✍ Dec 2017 - RBI imposes INR 3 Crs penalty for under-reporting of FY16 NPAs
✍ Apr 2018 - Reports divergence in FY17 NPAs of INR 1350 Crs frm RBI's estimates
✍ Sep 2018 - Discloses exposure of INR 3000 Crs to IL&FS, a crisis-ridden NBFC #IndusindBank
✍ July 2019 - Completes merger with Bharat Financial Inclusion
✍ Jan 2020 - Posts disappointing Q3, provisions up by 72%, gross NPAs more than double YoY, asset quality worsens, Mr Sobti set to retire in Mar'20
✍ Feb 2020 - Moody's downgrades Outlook to Negative from Stable
The API Industry
✍️ The backbone of India pharma industry is the bulk drug industry
✍️ India has highest no. of US FDA approved plants (665) outside of the US
✍️ India has 44% of global abbreviated new drug applications (ANDA)
✍️ India needs to proactively boost the API Industry
✍️ The Indian pharma industry is the world's 3rd largest in terms of vol
✍️ India's API industry is ranked the 3rd largest in the world
✍️ India fulfils 20% of global demand for generic medicines in terms of Vol & supplies over 60% of global demand of various vaccines & ARV drugs
✍️ Indian bulk drug industry has grown at CAGR of 8.6% over 2016-2020. It is further expeacted to grow at similar CAGR during 2020-2024
✍️ The import of APIs has risen at a CAGR of 8.3% from 2012-2019
✍️ Bulk drug import reached a value of INR ~249 billion in 2019
IOL Chemical CMP 255
✍️ Ibuprofen price increased from $15 to $18. Management expects it to touch $20
✍️ Recently, Dept. of pharmaceuticals has clarified that no ban has been proposed on export of APIs & formulations in the wake of coronavirus outbreak
✍️ IOLCP is having 30% World Mkt Share of Ibuprofen
✍️ 1 Ibuprofen manufacturer which has 15% world Mkt Share is in Hubei province & it is in complete shutdown due to coronavirus outbreak
✍️ Ibuprofen demand increased due to Supply Constraint
✍️ Co. is having 6 months Inventory
✍️ IOLCP is a leader in India for #Ibuprofen.
✍️ Two cos in India which manufacture Ibuprofen (#IOLCP & #Solara)
✍️ Co is not increasing Ibuprofen prices in Indian Mkt
✍️ Co has already started getting Ibuprofen orders at $18
✍️ Currently Ibuprofen capacity utilization is 80%
👉 AMC biz: High operating leverage
👉 Fixed costs are relatively low in this biz
👉 MF Biz is fundamentally strong due to its high ROE, ROCE & FCF genearation
👉 High Dividend payout due to high FCF
👉 Both HDFC AMC & Nippon Life AMC generated massive >150% returns in past 1 yr
👉 India's MF Industry's consistent growth @21% CAGR (From 12.75 Lakh Crs to 27.26 lakh Crs in 2019)
👉 Equity MF and Debt MF grew at 4 year CAGR of 18% and 14% respectively
👉 Clear jump in equity funds and Hybrid funds of 62% to 152% in 2017
👉 MF AUM continues to rise
👉 Total AUM as % of GDP is still very low at about 11% vs world average of about 62%
Factors driving growth
👉 Growing middle class with rising disposable income
👉 Large working age population with better job opportunities
👉 Low FD Interest rates