Thread by @NashSGC

Still think it’s worth putting a fiver on UK/EU #trade negotiations going into December.

Why? Four reasons…

1. This government are firm believers in deadlines focusing minds (it’s the journalists in the them).

2. Brexiteers have never stopped believing that the #EU will fold in the face of no-deal.

3. Brexiteers are inexplicably convinced that the #EU only makes deals at the eleventh hour and that running down the clock works in the UK's favour.

4. The closer to Christmas the deal is done the easier it is to bury noise from the ERG & Farage about "betrayal". Managing the narrative & headlines might be the No. 10’s top priority.

Plenty of the assumptions being made by No. 10 about the way the #EU will behave during the end game are wrong (see 2 & 3 above). It’s hard to understand why these mistakes a re being repeated, but David Davisism dies hard.

For me all this points towards government running negotiations with the EU as close as possible to Christmas, and Parliamentary recess.

Govt. know the EU won’t walk away from the negotiations.

They know that hard Brexiteers are in no rush for a deal.

They know that the public isn’t really watching/doesn’t really care (what matters most, a deal with the EU, or seeing family at Christmas?)

They also know that the only real deadline is 31st December, and they still believe running the clock down is a safe gamble.

And as for ratification, process isn’t something that keeps this govt. awake at night, & they most likely see this as the EU’s problem, not theirs.

After all, it’s the EP, not the UK Parl. that has a genuine ratification role.

Now I might be proved embarrassingly wrong on this as early as next week, but I think we’ve got a few more weeks of "negotiations" yet, and it's only 20 days until December, so it’s probably worth a punt.