Thread by @jonworth

This is a good challenging thread by @robfordmancs

There are a few counter claims and mitigating circumstances that are worth exploring

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1333374935528583175

First, the real practical impacts are perhaps now going to be felt more - because now things really *will* change (new rules, headaches for imports etc.), while not much has changed until now - there is a little evidence of this

Second, understanding what has changed and how is complicated - and requires a multi-faceted and complete debate to understand. And that is not what Britain has for some of the reasons Rob outlines

Third, there are a slew of think tankers and journalists who keep on pumping out the "it's the economy, stupid" kind of line, while those arguing the opposite (that the economic concerns don't register) much are often rubbished for it

Fourth, in a country that has been one of the slowest in Europe to return to even PPP rates of household spending since the 2008 crash, then has been hit by a very deep hit from COVID, the "it's shit, can it get worse?" line can resonate

Fifth, meaningful political critique of what the Government is doing on Brexit has been lacking for the past 10 months - because opposition parties have either been in disarray or have hoped Brexit will go away as a problem

Sixth, downsides can be attributed to others behaving badly towards the UK, rather than the UK itself being ill prepared for the consequences of its own decisions

Seventh, when the government has not been doing well across a slew of policy fields (not just Brexit), I am not sure there is much understanding or expectation of good government - and there is definitely no price to bad government and corruption

Eighth, it is not all as unshakeable as Rob outlines - as the percentage saying leaving the EU was a bad idea is at the highest rate since the referendum - so there is some reflection going on

Only some *massive* mess is going to shake the confidence of this Johnson government. And even then they will probably succeed in framing it as a result of the dastardly EU or Remainers or something.