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26 Nov, 14 tweets, 8 min read
There's an election happening mid January, and it's going to decide the successor to the leader of the western alliance...

Really!

Well, sort of
No, I am not referring to the start of Biden's term as US President

I am referring to the decision of Germany's CDU to decide who will be its party leader - because whoever that is has an excellent chance to succeed Merkel as Chancellor in September 2021

#CDUVorsitz
Norbert Röttgen, Armin Laschet and Friedrich Merz are in the running (L to R, and I don't mean the picture)
The problem?

Actually understanding what is going on is no simple task. The CDU's party conference that should have chosen the party leader has been postponed twice, and should now happen in January
The press coverage about it - even in German - is pretty meagre. In English (explaining the significance of this to an international audience) there is even less.

This by @philipoltermann in The Observer is the best there is - 2 months old! theguardian.com/world/2020/sep…
NY Times last covered it in February. The FT explained the delays with the party conference in October, but has done little in the way of analysis. The Economist flippantly in October said "After Merkel, midgets" and didn't even cover Röttgen - who definitely isn't a midget.
Then what about think tanks? Are they, I wondered filling the gap that the media is not?

Not yet, anyway.

@ecfr @ecfrberlin has nothing since March
google.de/search?sxsrf=A…

Anything else in the pipeline @markhleonard @jana_puglierin?
Centre for European Reform @CER_EU has nothing at all

google.de/search?sxsrf=A…

@CER_Grant are there plans to cover this issue?
The Institut Delors / Notre Europe (in Paris, Brussels, Berlin) @DelorsInstitute @DelorsBerlin @DelorsEurope likewise has nothing

google.de/search?sxsrf=A…

@genevieve_pons are you looking at this issue?
In Brussels @Bruegel_org has nothing

google.de/search?sxsrf=A…

@GuntramWolff @porcarorama I'm aware economics is your focus, but is this something you will examine?
Likewise @epc_eu
google.de/search?sxsrf=A…

And @CEPS_thinktank
google.de/search?sxsrf=A…

have nothing yet...

@FabianZuleeg @jaemmanouilidis @StevenBlockmans are you waiting until the party race is concluded?
Yes, this might be an internal party competition right now, but look how much time and energy is devoted to following primaries in US politics!

And I know Söder of the CSU waits in the wings, so January's vote might not be the end of all this...
But for the future of Europe and Germany all of this really matters - a lot.

Does Merkel's successor lead to continuity Merkel? Or something rather different, and potentially more dangerous for Europe?

At the moment those questions aren't being asked enough!
I don't know if I am the right person to answer these questions. There might be super analysis that I am missing. Perhaps into the new year we will all have more capacity to focus on this.

But for the moment the relative silence perplexes me...

/ends

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More from @jonworth

Jon Worth Profile picture
27 Nov
Next week is shaping up to be one hell of a week in 🇬🇧 politics

It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing

Bear with me - this is messy but important

1/12
Why will it be hellish?

We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec

There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not

2/12
Coronavirus first

I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
25 Nov
Another day in British politics, another government resignation

This time it was Baroness Sugg resigning over Sunak committing to cutting the UK's overseas aid spending - see Gavin's thread for the data

But a thread from me about the ⛈ on the horizon - #Brexit
Sugg resigned because of a policy disagreement, as her resignation letter outlines, but the outright and blunt way the announcement was made by Sunak fits a pattern - this is not a decision that has been debated, discussed, mulled over.

A whole slew of Tories have lined up to criticise the cut

And even David Cameron put his head out of the shed door for a while to raise his concerns
Read 13 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
23 Nov
One of the things that has perplexed me about the current #Brexit impasse has been how passive the European Parliament has been in public

This tweet today from Bernd Lange was about the first sign of exasperation I have seen:
Don't get me wrong - there might be good reason for not saying anything. But had Verhofstadt still been doing Brexit coordination for the EP you can be sure it would not be this quiet!
The EP has a "UK Coordination Group"

More info about it, and its members:
europarl.europa.eu/ukcg/en/about/…

In this thread a summary of what the MEPs in it have (not) said about Brexit, based on Tweets and their own websites...
Read 18 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
20 Nov
Why is fishing so important to 🇬🇧-🇪🇺, in comparison to 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵?

Because 🇬🇧🇫🇷🇧🇪🇮🇪 boats have been fishing the same waters, and you need to disentangle that

And you can land a 🐟 in Grimsby, 🚛 it fresh to Paris. You can't so easily from 🇨🇦 or 🇯🇵
Why is level playing field so important to 🇬🇧-🇪🇺, in comparison to 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵?

Because companies in Europe have integrated supply chains, and geographic proximity means likelihood of undercutting each other is considerable

An integrated supply chain 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵 is harder
Why is police cooperation so important to 🇬🇧-🇪🇺, in comparison to 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵?

Because 🇬🇧 has been doing it as part of 🇪🇺, and a lot more people and goods are exchanged between the two than 🇪🇺-🇨🇦 or 🇪🇺-🇯🇵
Read 6 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
19 Nov
I'm sorry for my hard line on grace periods, implementation periods for 🇬🇧, post 1 Jan - but 🇪🇺 must resist them

While I have some sympathy for the mess facing Brits and firms, the cause of this problem is completely and squarely with 🇬🇧 Government
Until 🇬🇧 Govt owns (or is forced to own) the mess it has caused there will be no change

And yes, it might require a metaphorical rubbing of Michael Gove's nose in it, in the bottom of a portaloo on the hard shoulder of the M20. But so be it
As @SnellArthur rightly put it, it's odd that "'taking back control', is giving the French port authorities the ability to bring your economy to its knees"
Read 9 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
19 Nov
This evening the EU's Heads of State and Government are meeting via #EUCO video call

#Brexit is not formally on the agenda, but let's look at how some of the key players in the Brexit end game are feeling just now...
Johnson

Nervously waiting. Cannot bear to take a decision. Hoping something will come along to save him.
Frost

Limited. Cannot go too far in talks as any compromises would be needed from Johnson. Keeps talking the talk.
Read 13 tweets

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