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30 Nov, 5 tweets, 2 min read
I've been wondering about the seemingly inexorable pull of No Deal in this weird calm-before-the-storm phase of Brexit, and so I have blogged about it

tl:dr; it's about outdated notions of sovereignty

jonworth.eu/is-brexiters-a…
The blog post draws heavily on this LSE piece by @NickWestcottRAS blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020/11… and discussions over some weeks with @davidheniguk and others about what has and hasn't been said by Tory MPs since September
Basically a combination of two factors combine to make No Deal likely: the by now very entrenched (and erroneous) notion of sovereignty that Westcott describes, and the EU not being a legitimate actor in the eyes of the UK government...
... and that means that the UK will negotiate with the EU the very sorts of mutual constraints it is all too happy to agree to in deals with Canada and Japan.

Having done no ground work to prepare MPs for the consequences of a Deal, the politics of No Deal becomes very appealing
The end of Brexit transition is 32 days away. And where things stand today... is not looking good.



/ends

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More from @jonworth

Jon Worth Profile picture
30 Nov
OK. Deep breath. And a mea culpa.

My earlier post about Labour abstaining on a vote on a Brexit Deal was based on there not being a "Meaningful Vote" but just a motion - because MPs had voted in June to not give themselves a "Meaningful Vote".
But this being Brexit, and UK Parliamentary procedure being complicated and - to outsiders unclear - I was wrong to think it was so clear cut, and brilliant legal and Parliament nerds @GeorgePeretzQC @Brigid_Fowler & @nvonwestenholz helped get to the bottom of it.
If *no* primary legislation were needed in the UK, then the Constitutional Reform and Governance Act applies, giving the Commons a potential delaying power... which as time is so tight is significant.
Read 7 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
30 Nov
This is a good challenging thread by @robfordmancs

There are a few counter claims and mitigating circumstances that are worth exploring

First, the real practical impacts are perhaps now going to be felt more - because now things really *will* change (new rules, headaches for imports etc.), while not much has changed until now - there is a little evidence of this
Second, understanding what has changed and how is complicated - and requires a multi-faceted and complete debate to understand. And that is not what Britain has for some of the reasons Rob outlines
Read 10 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
27 Nov
Next week is shaping up to be one hell of a week in 🇬🇧 politics

It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing

Bear with me - this is messy but important

1/12
Why will it be hellish?

We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec

There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not

2/12
Coronavirus first

I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?

3/12
Read 13 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
26 Nov
There's an election happening mid January, and it's going to decide the successor to the leader of the western alliance...

Really!

Well, sort of
No, I am not referring to the start of Biden's term as US President

I am referring to the decision of Germany's CDU to decide who will be its party leader - because whoever that is has an excellent chance to succeed Merkel as Chancellor in September 2021

#CDUVorsitz
Norbert Röttgen, Armin Laschet and Friedrich Merz are in the running (L to R, and I don't mean the picture)
Read 14 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
25 Nov
Another day in British politics, another government resignation

This time it was Baroness Sugg resigning over Sunak committing to cutting the UK's overseas aid spending - see Gavin's thread for the data

But a thread from me about the ⛈ on the horizon - #Brexit
Sugg resigned because of a policy disagreement, as her resignation letter outlines, but the outright and blunt way the announcement was made by Sunak fits a pattern - this is not a decision that has been debated, discussed, mulled over.

A whole slew of Tories have lined up to criticise the cut

And even David Cameron put his head out of the shed door for a while to raise his concerns
Read 13 tweets
Jon Worth Profile picture
23 Nov
One of the things that has perplexed me about the current #Brexit impasse has been how passive the European Parliament has been in public

This tweet today from Bernd Lange was about the first sign of exasperation I have seen:
Don't get me wrong - there might be good reason for not saying anything. But had Verhofstadt still been doing Brexit coordination for the EP you can be sure it would not be this quiet!
The EP has a "UK Coordination Group"

More info about it, and its members:
europarl.europa.eu/ukcg/en/about/…

In this thread a summary of what the MEPs in it have (not) said about Brexit, based on Tweets and their own websites...
Read 18 tweets

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