“Last week saw the first decline in newly-reported #covid19 cases globally since September, due to a decrease in cases in Europe”, says @DrTedros at @WHO presser. Says it’s "thanks to the effectiveness of difficult but necessary measures put in place in recent weeks”.
@DrTedros @WHO #covid19 cases are still increasing inmost other regions, says @drtedros and warns that gains can easily be lost, especially with the holiday season coming up. "This is no time for complacency."
@DrTedros @WHO "We all need to consider whose life we might be gambling with in the decisions we make”, says @DrTedros. “We all want to be together with the people we love during festive periods. But being with family and friends is not worth putting them or yourself at risk."
@DrTedros @WHO Some concrete suggestions fron @DrTedros for celebrating this year:
"Celebrate with your household, avoid gatherings with many different households and families coming together.”
"Avoid crowded shopping centres, shop at less crowded times, and use online shopping if you can."
@DrTedros @WHO "If you do meet people from a different household, meet outdoors if you can, maintain physical distance and wear a mask.”
Same precautions if you have to travel. And, of course: "If you feel unwell, don't travel."
@DrTedros @WHO Also acknowledges #WorldAIDSDay tomorrow:

"New HIV infections have declined by 23% since 2010 and AIDS-related deaths have fallen by 39%”, says @DrTedros.
But much still to be done:
12 million people living with HIV are not on treatment. And pandemic putting progress at risk.
@DrTedros @WHO “In a WHO survey of 127 countries earlier this year, more than a quarter reported partial disruption to antiretroviral treatment for people with HIV”, says @drtedros.
Has since declined. Now:
-9 countries reporting disruptions
-12 critically low stock of antiretroviral medicines
@DrTedros @WHO Q about WHO origins mission and how experts were selected.
A call was put out earlier in the year, says @DrMikeRyan. “The process was to select a diverse group of individuals representing a geographically diverse group who represent the necessary expertise."
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan "Some have been politicizing this,” says @drtedros. "WHO is position is very, very clear: We need to know the origin of this virus. Because it can help us to prevent future outbreaks. And we're doing everything to make sure that we know the origin."
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan "The burden on the health care facilities on health care workers right now in many countries across the world is really astounding”, says @mvankerkhove. “We just need to all play our part to try to prevent us from needing that that care in the first place."
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove Q: To ski or not to ski?
“It needs to be a risk-based approach”, says @mvankerkhove. As with other activities, questions are "in terms of what can be done, how it can be done, if it can be postponed and if it can't be postponed how it can be done safely. Skiing is no different.”
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove People are unlikely to be infected “barreling down the slopes”, @DrMikeRyan adds. “The real issues are going to come at airports, on tour buses taking people to and from ski resorts, ski lifts … not to mention the après ski that so many people seem to enjoy.”
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove Q about rising numbers in Brazil:
“The disease numbers are going down in a number of states but rising in others”, says @DrMikeRyan. Important to look closely: "Where are cases jumping back up? What's driving this rise in cases? What can be done at that sub-national level”"
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove Brazil #covid19 case numbers peaked in July at more than 300,000 cases per week, says @drtedros. Then went down to 114,000 cases in the week of November 2. Now back up to 218,000 in a week.
“So I think Brazil has to be very very serious”, says @drtedros. “It's very worrisome.”
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove “We've known that a pandemic is coming”, says @DrMikeRyan. “It's not like nature wasn't telling us to be careful, to watch out, to get ready. It's not like the scientists around the world weren't telling us to watch out, get ready."
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove “Converting that sense of threat into concerted action on every level, that's been the difficulty”, says @DrMikeRyan. “The crisis that hasn't happened in people's minds, is the one that it's very hard to get the investment in to avoid or to mitigate the impact of such a crisis."
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove Health systems in the south and north struggle for different reasons, says @DrMikeRyan:
“In the south, health systems are under strain because there's chronic underinvestment, and they struggle to maintain basic essential health services.”
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove In north “we've designed our health systems to be delivered at 95, 98, 100% efficiency", says @DrMikeRyan.
“It's almost like a low-cost airline model for health service delivery. Well, we're paying a price for that now, not having that extra surge capacity built into the system."
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove On COVAX:
“Although the $2 billion that was the target for 2020 has been reached, there is still another $5 billion, that is required in order to meet the aspiration of procuring 2 billion doses of vaccine by the end of 2021”, says @Kate_L_OBrien.
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove @Kate_L_OBrien Even if vaccines are effective and available, huge challenges ahead, says @Kate_L_OBrien:
"the delivery of these vaccines, the competence in communities, the acceptance of vaccines and assuring that people are in fact immunized with the right number of doses"
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove @Kate_L_OBrien The year ahead is "not only about assuring that there is supply, it's also about a massive unprecedented scale of readiness and implementation of delivery and all that that will take in every community in every country around the world”, says @Kate_L_OBrien.
@DrTedros @WHO @DrMikeRyan @mvankerkhove @Kate_L_OBrien People with influence should model good behaviour, says @drmikeryan.
“No matter what it says on the posters and no matter what it says in the guidance: If that behavior is not being modeled by leaders and influencers, populations get confused
and the issue becomes
politicized."

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More from @kakape

1 Dec
I don’t really remember how we marked the beginning of a new week in pre-pandemic times, but these days we celebrate “good news on vaccines” Mondays, followed by “not so good news on global #covid19" Tuesdays.
That’s to say: the WHO’s weekly sitrep is up. Quick thread
Big picture:

3,935,330 new cases and
69,916 new deaths
were reported to @WHO last week.
That means deaths have risen for a sixth week (+3%), but cases are down 4% from last week.

It is a huge amount of death and disease from one little pathogen. Image
@WHO Number of new #covid19 cases finally going down after two months of increases may sound great.
The problem is that the data includes the craziness of US Thanksgiving numbers.
US case number is basically the same as last week, when it should probably be a lot higher.
Read 7 tweets
1 Dec
Here we go. Moderna and Biontech/Pfizer have today submitted the data on their #covid19 vaccines to the EMA to request a conditional market authorisation. EMA spokesperson told me they think a decision could come “by the end of this year at the earliest”.
If data submitted on Biontech vaccine is robust enough, “EMA’s scientific committee for human medicines (CHMP) will conclude its assessment during an extraordinary meeting scheduled for 29 December at the latest”

ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-re…
If data on Moderna vaccine is robust “EMA’s scientific committee for human medicines (CHMP) will conclude its assessment during an extraordinary meeting scheduled for 12 January at the latest”.

ema.europa.eu/en/news/ema-re…
Read 4 tweets
30 Nov
More stunning data out from Moderna’s vaccine trial today:

Of 196 #covid19 cases
185 were in placebo group
11 in vaccine group
- 94,1% efficacy

All 30 severe #covid19 cases were in placebo group
- so that’s, well, 100% for now

There was one #covid19 death in the placebo group
“Efficacy was consistent across age, race and ethnicity, and gender demographics”


The 196 #covid19 cases included:
33 in people 65+
42 in people "identifying as being from diverse communities”
Moderna says it will submit today for EUA at FDA and for conditional marketing authorisation at EMA.

FDA meeting to review safety and efficacy data likely on December 17.

Press release here (and yes, it’s another “vaccine news by press release Monday”):
investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/…
Read 8 tweets
29 Nov
Interesting piece by @mattapuzzo and others at @nytimes looking at the list of seven demands Trump conveyed to @WHO before he announced withdrawal. No clear strategy apparent. “It was all about my country, my politics, my election”, says @LawrenceGostin. nytimes.com/2020/11/27/wor…
“The third item asked Dr. Tedros to say that countries were right to consider travel restrictions during the pandemic ... Dr. Tedros was wary of being drawn into the American presidential campaign, where travel restrictions were a rallying cry for the Trump campaign.”
“The American requests also called for the W.H.O. to pre-qualify coronavirus drugs and vaccines for use around the world once they were authorized by major regulators in the United States, Canada, Europe or Japan.”
Read 4 tweets
27 Nov
#Covid19 is an uneven pandemic”, says @DrTedros at @WHO press conference on #sarscov2. “70% of cases and deaths are in just four countries.”
(Number seems wrong to me, though general point is true of course. Will check.)
@DrTedros @WHO So, according to @WHO’s own numbers US, India, Brazil and Russia account for about 30 million cases, pretty exactly half the global total of now more than 60 million cases.
On deaths: about 660,000 are US, Brazil, India and Mexico, less than half the 1,4 million global deaths.
@DrTedros @WHO Many countries have shown #covid19 can be controlled with existing tools, says @DrTedros. "One of the things all these countries have in common is an emphasis on testing."
Read 24 tweets
27 Nov
This (German) article by @hfeldwisch raises important questions about the Gangelt publication by @hendrikstreeck et al, that I've been wondering about. It argues that the study underestimates how deadly #sarscov2 is because not all the deaths were counted. medwatch.de/2020/11/26/die…
@hfeldwisch @hendrikstreeck I had wondered about this before because

1. We know that deaths lag cases and studies like this Princess Diamond one (eurosurveillance.org/content/10.280…) take that into account when calculating IFR
2. @hfeldwisch and others had warned before that the Gangelt study was not doing that
@hfeldwisch @hendrikstreeck The study was published in @NatureComms last week. Headline finding was an estimate for the infection fatality rate of #SARSCoV2 of 0,36%.
That was based on 7 deaths in the community of Gangelt compared to 1956 (estimated) infections.
nature.com/articles/s4146…
Read 12 tweets

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