Analysis of how margin of error could have affected all 16 VAR offside decisions in the Prem.

- 5 of 14 disallowed count
- Of the 5, 3 are Liverpool
- Three could have changed result (2 Liverpool)
- Only goal allowed would be ruled out on "Umpire's Call"

A thread.
To start with, if you missed it, here's yesterday's thread explaining how the Eredivisie uses margin of error on VAR offside.

Southampton v Tottenham (Sept. 20)

Goal (scored by Harry Kane) disallowed for offside against Son Heung-Min (0-0, Spurs won 2-5)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Goal remains disallowed.
Newcastle v Brighton (Sept. 20)

Neal Maupay goal allowed after being ruled out for offside, 8th minute (Brighton 0-1 up, finished 0-3)

VAR DECISION: Onside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Final result not affected, but Brighton would have had an onside goal remain disallowed.
Brighton v Man United (Sept. 26)

Marcus Rashford goal disallowed for offside (1-1, Man United won 3-2)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Offside lines not broadcast, ahead of the ball.
Leicester v West Ham (Oct. 4)

Jamie Vardy offside in build-up to Harvey Barnes goal, 90th minute (0-3)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Onside

Final result unaffected.
Everton v Liverpool (Oct. 17)

Jordan Henderson goal ruled out for offside against Sadio Mane, 90th minute (2-2)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Onside

Liverpool would probably have won a game they drew 2-2.
Newcastle v Man United (Oct. 17)

Bruno Fernandes goal ruled out for offside against Juan Mata, 19th minute (1-0, Man United won 1-4)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Clear offside, full calibration not required.
Leeds v Wolves (Oct. 19)

Goal for Romain Saiss disallowed for offside in the build-up by Daniel Podence, 54th minute (0-0, Wolves won 0-1)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Clear offside, full calibration not required.
Liverpool v Sheffield United (Oct. 24)

Mohamed Salah goal disallowed for offside, 62nd minute (1-1, Liverpool won 2-1)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Onside

Final result not affected.
Wolves v Crystal Palace (Oct. 30)

Penalty for Crystal Palace cancelled for offside against Patrick van Aanholt, 38th minute (Wolves 2-0)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Clear offside, full calibration not required.
Southampton v Villa (Nov. 1)

Ezri Konsa own goal disallowed for offside against Che Adams, 3rd minute (0-0, finished 3-4)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Goal remains disallowed.
Crystal Palace v Leeds (Nov. 7)

Patrick Bamford goal disallowed for offside, 19th minute (1-0, finished 4-1)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Onside

Early in game so possible result changer.
Arsenal v Aston Villa (Nov. 8)

John McGinn goal disallowed for offside against Ross Barkley, 1st minute (0-0, finished 0-3)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Goal remains disallowed.
Man City v Burnley (Nov. 28)

Bailey Peacock-Farrell own goal disallowed for offside in the build-up against Gabriel Jesus, 77th minute (5-0)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Goal remains disallowed. Lines do not touch.
Brighton v Liverpool (Nov. 28)

Mohamed Salah goal disallowed for offside, 35th minute (0-0, finished 1-1)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Onside

Was 0-0 at the time, so result could have been affected.
Brighton v Liverpool (Nov. 28)

Offside against Sadio Mane after scoring, 85th minute (0-1, finished 1-1)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Clear offside, full calibration not required.
West Ham v Aston Villa (Nov. 30)

Ollie Watkins goal disallowed for offside, 92nd minute (2-1)

VAR DECISION: Offside
WITH MARGIN OF ERROR: Offside

Lines do not touch, so VAR offside decision stands.

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More from @DaleJohnsonESPN

1 Dec
We need a thread about West Ham v Aston Villa and offside.

The Dutch "margin of error" is suddenly getting traction in the UK media. Which of course you'd have known about two months ago if you followed the Monday VAR thread.

This ain't a silver bullet, but it would be better.
There are a couple important things to debunk.

- "Thicker lines" is misleading
- Players will still be offside by an inch

Which feeds into this discussion between @GNev2 and @Carra23 on MNF, specifically to Gary Neville's point.
The Dutch used "clear and obvious" on offside until this season, opting to introduce Hawk-eye tech as a more accurate tool.

But the lines have NOT been made thicker. It's purely that if the final red and blue lines touch, the decision stays on field. Umpire's call.
Read 16 tweets
30 Nov
Here's your Monday VAR thread. Not too long this week because there's not much to talk about, and one incident is related to a few others. So it's just:

- Why Mo Salah could only be given offside
- Brighton's penalty vs. Liverpool

If there's any others unrelated, do ask.
Let's preface this by saying we all hate the marginal offside decisions. There are clear issues with overall accuracy due to a number of factors.

But FIFA says this is the system we must use. So I'm setting out how it's used.
The Mo Salah offside caused a lot of misplaced anger. The whole debate is getting a little tiresome. We have been with Hawkeye offside for almost 16 months now, we know what to expect.

Offsides like Patrick Bamford deserve anger, but this was a standard marginal offside.
Read 17 tweets
23 Nov
HANDBALL LAW UPDATE

Just in from the crucial IFAB meeting to decide any clarifications in the 2021-22 laws.

In relation to the handball Law, given that the interpretation of handball incidents has not always been consistent, further clarification is supported.
Notwithstanding the revised 2019-20 wording, it was re-emphasised that the final judgment remains with the referee and not every touch of a player’s hand/arm with the ball is an offence.
For the definition of “unnaturally bigger”, referees should judge the position of the arm in relation to the player’s movement.

While the handball law is not going to be rewritten, it should now be tidied up and clarified from the mess it is in the written laws.
Read 11 tweets
23 Nov
It's your Monday VAR thread, looking at:

- The increasing mess of "clear and obvious"
- Man United penalty
- Handball uncertainty
Regular readers of this thread will know that it's not the VAR's job to make sure a ref gets every decision right.

Otherwise the game is being totally re-refereed to the subjective opinion of the VAR.

The VAR is there to correct CLEAR errors. So it's where we have a problem.
With the WBA and Aston Villa penalties, there was definite contact on the shins of Conor Gallagher and Trezeguet.

So, are we now saying that a feather brush of the ball with the studs rules out a penalty through VAR? But without it (Salah) the penalty stands?
Read 17 tweets
21 Nov
Oh. My. Word.

Orlando goalkeeper Pedro Gallese saves the final spot-kick to send them through to the Conference semifinals.

But the VAR spots that Gallese had come off his line. Retake ordered.

But Gallese had already been booked, and gets a second yellow!

Shootout back on!
This is incredible. Orlando have made a sub to bring goalkeeper Brian Rowe on to take part in the shootout.

But the officials have no idea if Orlando are allowed to do it.

Rowe has been to the goal, back to the bench, and now he's back to the goal!

What the hell is going on.
And now Rowe is back to the bench, outfield player Rodrigo Schlegel goes in goal.

New York City score. But Nani MISSES the winning penalty chance.
Read 10 tweets
9 Nov
It's the Monday VAR thread. A busy one today for some reason.... including:

- Bamford offside
- Handball!
- Barkley offside
Starting with the worst of the weekend, the Patrick Bamford disallowed goal for Leeds at Palace.

There's no point going over the general flaws again, you can read about that in detail in the attached thread, but I'll cover the specifics of this decision.
First a reminder that you can now play the ball with the top of your arm after the law changed in the summer. It's why Mane was offside against Everton too.

And you can score with it; Gabriel already has for Arsenal against Fulham.
Read 29 tweets

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