Rumours are flying wild on how close we are to a #Brexit deal. My sense is that a deal is still possible, but the necessary compromises have yet to be made and time is running out soon.
To me it is therefore high time to think also about the political ramifications of no deal.
To me it is therefore high time to think also about the political ramifications of no deal.
https://twitter.com/SWPBerlin/status/1334495338523136003
In this analysis, I look at three political scenarios:
1. Friendly no deal - in which EU and UK seemlessly continue negotiations and try to limit no deal fallout via unilateral actions and mini deals. Ruled out by the EU, though the temptation will be there in some member states.
1. Friendly no deal - in which EU and UK seemlessly continue negotiations and try to limit no deal fallout via unilateral actions and mini deals. Ruled out by the EU, though the temptation will be there in some member states.
2. A 'grown-up no deal' - in which the no deal consequences come, but after some confrontations both sides get back to negotiation table quickly. Preferred by EU, likely will be supported by US, but does not square with UK politics which will need to blame EU for no deal fallout.
3. An Acrimonious no deal - where the UK and EU blame each other, UK violates the Withdrawal Agreement via the Internal Market Bill, and escalating tensions lead to a mid-term damage to the relationship. The way back to negotiation table will be long and difficult.
My conclusions:
The EU will remain interested in a long-term stable relationship with the UK, but the way back to the negotiation table will be much harder than many in Berlin or Brussels assume. The UK will not 'crawl' back to the negotiation table.
The EU will remain interested in a long-term stable relationship with the UK, but the way back to the negotiation table will be much harder than many in Berlin or Brussels assume. The UK will not 'crawl' back to the negotiation table.
The choice between a friendly and a grown-up no deal is largely the EU's, the choice between a grown-up and acrimonious no deal will be made in London.
Given how the #Brexit negotiations went so far, this unfortunately points an acrimonious no deal.
Given how the #Brexit negotiations went so far, this unfortunately points an acrimonious no deal.
Although the escalation potential for the UK will be limited, in particular Ireland will be very exposed in case of acrimonious no deal. Foreign and security policy, so far shielded from Brexit, is also likely to suffer. It will make a transatlantic restart more difficult.
In sum, if EU and UK fail to get an agreement soon, one will not be around the corner. The way back to the negotiation table will be fraught, the damage to the relationship long and it will also become more difficult for the EU to get to a working relationship with Britain. /ends
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