We we know, cases and case rates are falling fairly fast. 83,764 cases in the week covered, 45% from the peak of 150,943 two weeks previously.
Case rates falling across all ages - including those over 60 yrs (more likely to be hospitalised).
Although rates of decline are slowest in <9 yrs and >70yrs.
Rates also declining in all regions.
And whilst mass testing will find cases, its impact on regional case rates isn't yet totally clear and will vary based on uptake, baseline prevalence etc. Approx 25% of Liverpool's weekly cases were found using LFDs.
But this is an important slide.
Age by region.
Note much slower declines in SE, London, E of Eng. Plus rising case numbers in 10-19yrs in London, and much slower decline in 80% in East Mids.
Rates also falling among all ethnic groups and deprivation groups, but falling faster among some than others.
Big drop in outbreaks this week, encouragingly this is particularly the case in care homes and secondary schools.
But also in workplaces. Will be interesting to see if moving back into tier systems will impact that at all, or whether this represents more sustainable working from home and COVID secure working.
Sustained fall in hospital admissions, but this varies markedly by region. V encouraging now seeing falls in the Midlands, but rates continue to creep up in SE.
And the same is true for ICU admissions. Great to see drops in the Midlands, less compelling falls in the South plus a slightly worrying uptick in the NW.
However, while rate of growth might be slowing, death rates continue to rise, with significant excess mortality.
But to end on a high, social distancing, masks and handwashing are really helping when it comes to flu and respiratory infections.
A&E presentations for acute respiratory infections are way down on normal (although part of this will be driven by people not wanting to attend ED)
For GP visits in and out of hours it's the same (ILI = influenza-like illness)
And even for google searches.
Finally, just three flu admissions in the week covered, and flu vaccination rates KEEP CLIMBING 🙌
So in general, this is good news, but hospitals remain under pressure as result of both COVID bed use, but also having to adopt new ways of operating, staff shortages and more (see @ChrisCEOHopson's excellent thread on this)
That means keeping rates low thru winter as we move back to tiers is as important as ever. Only through low case rates can the NHS can function and society start to open up again.
The COVID vaccine's exciting but the population level cover required is still a long way off.
A 5% drop in the number of people getting tested this week (to 1.66m), but a 28% drop in cases.
Drawing conclusions about falling positivity rates over time is getting increasingly tricky as testing among asymptomatic people is rolled out. As have said previously, reporting symptomatic separately to asymptomatic would hugely help with understanding the data.
Interesting that number of individuals tested down by 1% this week (although that's still 1.74m people).
This includes the lateral flow devices being used in Liverpool and some other settings (reported in pillar 2).
Cases fell for the first time since mid-August. Down 9% to 152,660, and positivity also down. This is consistent with PHE data today, as well as ONS survey.
Welcome signs that case numbers and case rates are falling both in PHE data & ONS survey
Not going to disentangle positivity rates here, mass/lateral flow testing is in pillar 2, many will have confirmatory PCRs, & ideally symptomatic vs asymptomatic would be reported separately
And these falling case rates are across ALL age groups and ALL regions.
12% increase in people getting tested which is good (now 1.74m in a week(!)), but note from 6th Nov, pillar 2 now includes people having the rapid lateral flow tests (e.g. Liverpool pilot) and this will only increase in numbers.
The knock-on impact is lower P2 positivity rates.
The implications of this is that it makes it far harder to interpret positivity rates, esp if you don't separate out test device, or asymptomatic vs symptomatic testing.