Thread by @ADMBriggs

Latest PHE flu and surveillance report now out.

Looks at 23/11 to 28/11

Case rates falling, flu remains low, and as ever, big regional/age/ethnicity/deprivation variation.

gov.uk/government/sta…

We we know, cases and case rates are falling fairly fast. 83,764 cases in the week covered, 45% from the peak of 150,943 two weeks previously.

Case rates falling across all ages - including those over 60 yrs (more likely to be hospitalised).

Although rates of decline are slowest in <9 yrs and >70yrs.

Rates also declining in all regions.

And whilst mass testing will find cases, its impact on regional case rates isn't yet totally clear and will vary based on uptake, baseline prevalence etc. Approx 25% of Liverpool's weekly cases were found using LFDs.

But this is an important slide.

Age by region.

Note much slower declines in SE, London, E of Eng. Plus rising case numbers in 10-19yrs in London, and much slower decline in 80% in East Mids.

Rates also falling among all ethnic groups and deprivation groups, but falling faster among some than others.

Big drop in outbreaks this week, encouragingly this is particularly the case in care homes and secondary schools.

But also in workplaces. Will be interesting to see if moving back into tier systems will impact that at all, or whether this represents more sustainable working from home and COVID secure working.

Sustained fall in hospital admissions, but this varies markedly by region. V encouraging now seeing falls in the Midlands, but rates continue to creep up in SE.

And the same is true for ICU admissions. Great to see drops in the Midlands, less compelling falls in the South plus a slightly worrying uptick in the NW.

However, while rate of growth might be slowing, death rates continue to rise, with significant excess mortality.

But to end on a high, social distancing, masks and handwashing are really helping when it comes to flu and respiratory infections.

A&E presentations for acute respiratory infections are way down on normal (although part of this will be driven by people not wanting to attend ED)

For GP visits in and out of hours it's the same (ILI = influenza-like illness)

And even for google searches.

Finally, just three flu admissions in the week covered, and flu vaccination rates KEEP CLIMBING 🙌

So in general, this is good news, but hospitals remain under pressure as result of both COVID bed use, but also having to adopt new ways of operating, staff shortages and more (see @ChrisCEOHopson's excellent thread on this)

https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/status/1333059416313245696?s=20

That means keeping rates low thru winter as we move back to tiers is as important as ever. Only through low case rates can the NHS can function and society start to open up again.

The COVID vaccine's exciting but the population level cover required is still a long way off.

This week's PHE surveillance rpt @felly500 @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUk @Jeanelleuk @fascinatorfun @profchrisham @petermbenglish @HPIAndyCowper @Davewwest @HSJEditor @KateAlvanley @IndependentSage @nedwards_1 @SamanthaJonesUK @ewanbirney @FurberA