I'd just like to place on record that #NoDealBrexit is just about the worst *political* idea I've ever heard. In the 1000% unlikely event I was advising the PM, I would be extremely strongly against.
It's the classic Weak Man's Strong Man decision, like Steve McClaren dropping David Beckham. Sugar rush of the call, then all your problems get much worse.
It supercharges your opponents, allows Labour all the political landscape, is a *vast* gift to the SNP, revives the Lib Dems - all at a stroke.
The public don't want No Deal. You just won an election promising to make it all go away. You're under attack for your competence on Covid. The last thing you need is loads more blame.
You need to move on, convince middle of the road voters who have peeled away. You need to talk infrastructure, jobs, Covid recovery, climate change, hospitals.
No-one cares about arbitration mechanisms and customs forms. They just want to get it done. Get Brexit done.
Balls this up today, you could be bundled out of office within a couple of years after an ERM-style debacle on the borders, on supermarket shelves, in Northern Ireland.
...While Sunak and then Starmer have to face the Q of how to build the hard border with Scotland, and where in England and Wales to base Trident.
Do the deal. /END

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More from @gsoh31

18 Nov
Astounding to see how #Labour has acted in three prejudicial ways that challenge law:
1. Timing. Many cases take *years*. One day if you're privileged.
2. Case subject. This case clearly about #antisemitism, even if technically not. One rule *again* on this, another elsewhere.
3. Treatment. This a bit more arguable, but there are signs of backroom dealing.
They have just been found to have *broken the law* *multiple times* on all these fronts. Yet they do it again!
These people are just total amateurs with no understanding of how even a medium-sized public body or private company would act in three circumstances. Just burning through reputation, credit and cash. Hopeless.
Read 4 tweets
4 Apr
It's hard to get the tone right on this, but let's remind ourselves of why #Corbyn is having to go: he was a complete disgrace from start to finish. /THREAD
First and foremost, he made #Labour a frightening and unsafe place for Jews. He was so arrogant he invented a new meaning for the word 'Zionist' and then divided Jews into good and bad. Sinister and frightening.
He turned Labour into a site of hatred, threats and misogyny. His staff covered up and lied, and then covered up and lied some more.
Read 11 tweets
24 Feb
Not on strike today because my branch did not reach the turnout threshold, but solidarity to all those taking action today in the #UCUstrike. It's complicated, but hear me out.
Let's leave the pensions dispute to one side, because it's complicated. I am hopeful of some sort of settlement here. More important are:- (1) Casualisation. Universities are making up for their real terms funding crunch with vastly exploited hourly-paid teachers. Got to stop.
Then there's (2) Pay. Here I've got my own issues with my union's approach. I don't need more pay. Across-the-board % rises in themselves regressive. But the same people being casualised (and everyone 'below') SL needs a big uplift to make the profession competitive.
Read 9 tweets
12 Feb
So here's the thing about Keir Starmer: I'm not clear at all how he's going to handle things as LOTO. Maybe he isn't either. 🤷‍♂️ /THREAD
So often I've thought that he's a very clear-minded and cynical actor, which is great in my book. 👍 That's what politics is about. He waited to resign in summer 2016, then wrote a more-in-sorrow-than-anger letter. That miner in his video was a masterstroke of cynicism.
He gradually eroded Labour's Euroscepticism until he got what he wanted. He appealed to Conference delegates to make him unsackable. I like it. Highly intelligent.
Read 9 tweets
15 Dec 19
God, this 'on the one hand this, on the other hand that' equivocation from some Labour MPs. Shocking. Look, your party has been occupied at the top by people who hate it. /THREAD
They hate its grassroots trade unionism (which is why they have to stitch up its elections). They hate its liberalism, and all those Liberal MPs who helped to make it in the interwar.
They hate its Methodism. They hate its Christian socialism. They hate its debt to Catholic Social Teaching. They hate its outward-looking pluralism. They hate its commitment to the common corps of Europeanism.
Read 5 tweets
11 Dec 19
Last point for now, but for all the rejoicing about polls, British politics can drift into a very difficult place from here. I call it the Death Zone, and the heatmap of probable results is drifting perilously close to it. Here's what I mean. /THREAD
Death Zone (1) tiny Con working majority, or just short. Enough to pass the WAB, get #Brexit, not enough to pass all the critical enabling legislation or extend transition. Risks of crashing out of transition rise sharply.
Death Zone (2) Cons on say 314, enough to cling to office but not to pass the WAB. Have to extend #Brexit again, have another GE in early spring perhaps. Still pretty deadly threat to all the political parties.
Read 5 tweets

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