Thread by @hysperbole

"The #US change in #Somalia has nothing to do with Somalia and has to do with US politics" - a source

There's also legitimate concern that the #FGS will try to deploy #Danab around #Mogadishu to suppress any uprising at the end of the Presidential election. #Danab was formed to be a crack force against al Shabaab, not to suppress a democratic process.

The Somali federal government recently upset the US by ousting and imprisoning the #Danab commander and replacing him with one more loyal to the current president.

The US gathers intelligence with drone surveillance. My understanding is that the US gathers and analyzes the intelligence before sharing it with Danab and then they act on the findings. If the US is not on the ground, that could slow down the operations, giving AS more room.

While yes, all changes will be slow rolled, kicked to neighboring countries or to Bancroft and then presumably reinstated with the Biden administration, the situation in #Somalia at the moment is so delicate that small shifts will have a big impact.

Also US sources telling me they're not sure what's going to happen with equipment in #Baledagole or #Kismayo bases.

#Danab doesn't have the presence to occupy all that space.

Adding to this thread because I'm having continued conversations with well-placed sources on this, another tells me that the US government can be counted on to hold the government in check and wouldn't allow #Danab to be misused.

I'm also told that while the US did not appreciate the over-reach, the new #Danab commander can be trusted to carry out the mission to focus on countering al Shabaab, and wouldn't be swayed by politics.

These are all potential forecasts and concerns and from well-placed individuals based on the well-confirmed basics that are circulating. There's a lot that hasn't been decided, this thread is just to flesh out the conversation.