I cover US airstrikes on the ground from Somalia, and wrote a number of investigations on the topic. The implications that this potential withdrawal has given the fragile situation in the country is significant and about more than airstrikes or counter-terrorism.
Comments that the airstrikes will continue and/or the generally vague statements about the boost this could give to al Shabaab seems to be the mainstream US focus and are practically besides if you want to talk about how this will impact people on the ground.
The impact this seemingly relatively abrupt even small withdrawal could have is on Somali politics and the #Danab, the Somali Special Forces who work with the US.
And while perhaps this seems too wonky its actually a pretty straightforward narrative to get across: a major international player's quick posture shift will have an immediate impact on national politics and - the world over - national politics is what matters most to civilians.
The story at the moment is that rapid policy shifts made by powerful international actors impact delicate situations.
Discussing counter-terrorism and civilian casualties in #airstrikes is not sophisticated and using the precious space mainstream media gives to the US in Somalia to focus on that is a waste.
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"The #US change in #Somalia has nothing to do with Somalia and has to do with US politics" - a source
There's also legitimate concern that the #FGS will try to deploy #Danab around #Mogadishu to suppress any uprising at the end of the Presidential election. #Danab was formed to be a crack force against al Shabaab, not to suppress a democratic process.
The Somali federal government recently upset the US by ousting and imprisoning the #Danab commander and replacing him with one more loyal to the current president.
My understanding, as someone who has covered #Somalia from the ground since early 2017, is that this abrupt shift could have extremely negative reverberations on the people the US troops were previously meant to support.
There is no opinion here on the impact the US presence has had thus far in #Somalia, it is to say that, it is my understanding that, abrupt movements such as the quick withdrawal of troops, would not be beneficial to any stated local or international aims.
The general understanding I have is that the US has been providing support for #Danab, the Somali Special forces, who have been the most effective national militia to fight al Shabaab.
The article notes that Kenyan authorities have to assent before a strike. Strikes in #Somalia are also carried out "in partnership" with the government, but issues include politicized intelligence and power imbalances.
The US military says it has conducted at least 148 strikes in Somalia in the past three years, killing at least 900 - 1000 people. It alleges all but two were militant fighters associated with al Shabaab.
What I wanted to know was, even if that's the case (and my reporting along with @amnesty's have found that it is not) how are the strikes impacting civilians?
@amnesty I found that U.S. air strikes in Somalia have damaged farms, homes and livestock. Strikes have also created a climate of uncertainty and paranoia within the communities they hit, as civilians start suspecting each other of being targeted members of al-Shabab.
The US military confirmed to me it was on an operation in the village of Shanta Baraako the night two civilians, including one mother died. Madina Hospital verified the death certificate. inthesetimes.com/features/us-mi…
I don't think I have ever seen a man break down until I overly bluntly started questioning Hassan about his sister's death during the US "advise and assist" raid his home. His face fell. He collapsed into sobs. His sister.
Thankful to @inthesetimesmag, the Leonard C. Goodman Institute for Investigative Reporting and most importantly the Khamis family for the support in reporting this piece; this will not be my last.
Yesterday General Waldhauser said US #airstrikes won't stop al Shabab in #Somalia. I spent five weeks on the ground investigating the impact of the strikes. Here's what I found: thenation.com/article/somali…
Halimo Mohamed Abdi said the blast broke both her hips, left shrapnel embedded in her thigh, and caused terrible burns that cost her both breasts.Before she lost consciousness, she told me, she saw three boys—9, 10, and 16—die in the explosion about 30 miles outside #Mogadishu.
Abdi, like many Somali herders, doesn’t follow the Western calendar, so she’s unsure of the exact date of the strike. But she says it was about two weeks before Eid al-Fitr, which began on the evening of June 14 last year.