Thread by @hysperbole

My understanding, as someone who has covered #Somalia from the ground since early 2017, is that this abrupt shift could have extremely negative reverberations on the people the US troops were previously meant to support.

https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1335011123012259841

There is no opinion here on the impact the US presence has had thus far in #Somalia, it is to say that, it is my understanding that, abrupt movements such as the quick withdrawal of troops, would not be beneficial to any stated local or international aims.

The general understanding I have is that the US has been providing support for #Danab, the Somali Special forces, who have been the most effective national militia to fight al Shabaab.

The #Danab are imperfect, and there is an ongoing discussion amongst policy makers about whether supporting #Danab is the best way to counter al Shabaab. However, within the present dynamic, they are functional and - to my understanding - viewed as comparatively nonpartisan.

The #Danab are viewed as nonpartisan compared, especially, to other troops/militia who have gotten international support (whether from the #Gulf or the #UK, etc) and become infantry that carries out personal/political aims.

These groups have conducted missions that are more related to national political priorities and less related to countering the presence of al Shabaab.

Whether or not prioritizing AS makes sense is a separate conversation that is not for me -- so all this might all be grist for the mill in the long run...

-- but my understanding is that losing a symbolically non-partisan fighting force right now, ahead of an election, could only contribute to instability in #Somalia and have an impact that reverberates directly or indirectly for literally decades.

I would assume that since US troops in #Somalia are likely to get slow rolled to #Kenya and #Djibouti that there's an angle thats say essentially nothing will change besides some slow movements until the Biden administration at which point everything goes back to the status quo.

This outcome - that some foot shuffling happens and nothing really changes and then Biden takes over and everything sorts itself back - is possible - however, that outcome, as far as I can understand it, is basically the best case and least likely scenario.

But I am only a journalist so, this is just my understanding.