Rocking baby so took the chance to read this excellent summary of mega new @theCCCuk net-zero- consistent climate advice for UK, by my @CarbonBrief colleagues.
Some v striking aspects beyond headline target recommendation of 78% cut by 2035.
➡️proposed new 78% goal by 2035 is 2x as fast as old 80% by 2050
➡️bye-bye "net carbon account" (🙏🙏) you won't be missed (v impt but if it means nothing to you, count yourself lucky)
➡️advice offers several paths to net-zero, w/ UK hitting NZ as early as ~2042 (see chart)
2/5
➡️pathways include more significant behaviour change eg on diet
➡️avg annual net cost to 2050 seen 3x lower than in last yr's advice (~£16b vs ~£50b/yr, see chart, tho baby brain so could be reading wrong)
➡️costs (=investment!) seen yielding net GAIN for GDP overall
3/5
➡️electricity supply to grow >>2x by 2050, with large majority wind/solar
➡️calls for 2035 phaseout of unabated gas power (currently ~40% of annual supplies)
➡️interesting + diplomatic use of tech neutral terms by CCC (see chart, "firm", "flexible low carbon")
4/5
➡️in main "balanced NZ", H2 for heat largely for backup ("hybrid heat pumps") & what looks to be <<10% of demand (see chart vs CCC's 2018 "full H2" w/ ~400TWh for heat)
➡️still big role for H2 but mainly in shipping + industry
➡️less H2 than last yr's advice, ~220TWh vs 270
5/5
PS I won't be around here much, but yes, I really am sad enough to be interested in reading this stuff while being on paternity leave.
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UK govt has published 38pp doc on its 10-point climate plan, with numbers.
Adding them up, it looks like the new measures would only close 55% of the gap to meeting UK's 4th/5th carbon budgets…even before thinking about net zero ambition.
🌞 solar 20-50% cheaper than IEA said last yr
🏭 coal in "structural decline"
⛽️ no peak yet for oil
🔥 gas to rise 30%
☁️ CO2 plateau…unless more climate action
🎯 + 1st-ever modelling on 1.5C
Eye-popping new data just out for UK car sales in Sep20
⚡️ new record for BEVs, up 3x in a yr & 7x since 2016
🔌 >10% of cars now come with a plug
⛽️ just 2/3 are conventional cars (cf 98% in 2015)
🚗 overall sales down ~40% since 2017 peak
More than 10% of UK new car sales now come with a plug ie pure EVs or plug-in hybrids
With the rise of hybrids, now at a record 21% of sales, that means only ~2/3 of new cars sold in the UK today are conventional petrol or diesel, down from around 98% just five years ago (!)
Remarkably, diesels now make up just 14% of UK new car sales, down from around 50% in 2015