1/ a quick thread on trading, investing, and managing your own psychology.
we've all had moments where hindsight gives us 20/20 vision into a trade, an investment, or deal.
*BUT* we're bad at incorporating these experiences into our future decision-making.
2/ there is not enough self-improvement or mental fitness training out there for our relationship with money 💸 it's a toxic relationship for many
but you can take more ownership and control of your financial decisions by adopting some simple self-improvement practices!
3/ start by keeping a journal of your investing decisions. document *why* you're doing what you're doing.
simple questions:
- why am i investing?
- what are my expectations of return? are they realistic?
- what is the timeline i plan to hold this?
- how am i sizing this?
4/ re-visit your investments periodically and write down how your feelings change.
- what did you get right? what did you get wrong?
- how was your sizing? was it too small, too large, or appropriate for your portfolio
- how does this investment make you feel? worried? content?
5/ get actual data and review it!
look at your portfolio of investments and evaluate timing, risk, distribution across asset classes and sectors, effort / $ invested, look at it all
now write down how it makes you feel. write what you want to do differently next quarter.
6/ you can keep these notes anywhere, just keep it all together and keep it organized in a way that works for you and is easy to reference. your system will improve over time.
now when i trade, i take 2 minutes to jot down my thinking. i can now spot patterns.
7/ investing is just like any other skill - you can actively work to get better by tracking, evaluating, and improving your skills.
your psychology and your emotions are your most dangerous enemy. understanding how you react to your feelings can help you make better decisions.
8/ not advice, DYOR, but don't *not* invest because you're afraid or because of past mistakes. invest time and energy in getting better at investing!
i have too many conversations w people about "i wish i" "i should have" "why didn't i" - and i have little sympathy for them
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1/ quick thread on capital markets and their participants
who participates in in capital markets? finance pro's and traders are focused on optimizing the opportunity cost of capital and (1) preserving principal while (2) optimizing growth
you usually start with a goal in mind
2/ understanding the opportunity cost of capital is an important exercise, and one that changes constantly.
if you have 100 bitcoin, your opportunity cost of capital could be 8% income from lending it. or it could be the 20,000% APY you could earn by wrapping it and farming.
3/ opportunity cost of capital is a fancy way of saying "making your money work in the best way possible"
crypto is a $300B market. a lot of ppl who are fundamentally long (holding assets) want to make money while waiting for "number go up"
1/ the crypto fundraising scene is *crazy* right now.
there's so much money chasing every deal, so many new funds, and every day i get a text, call, or email from at least 2-3 founders asking for help navigating the landscape.
some insights from 6 years and 200 deals
2/ you get what you optimize for.
if you optimize for valuation and raise a lot quickly, expectations will be high. raising too much and spending too much spirals very quickly.
there aren't many B / C investors, so be careful of the barbell. valuation isn't everything.
3/ don't raise without a STRONG lead! i've done way too many deals where i end up doing a TON of heavy lifting as an angel.
due diligence your investors. know what each investor is bringing to the table. get intros to founders in their portfolio.
2/ bitcoin is being increasingly financialized as an asset. the clearest evidence of the demand for bitcoin as a store of value is the rapid growth of AUM in financial products.
3/ data also supports the thesis that bitcoin is a savings technology - it is increasingly used as a store of value 🔒
data from @glassnode shows that this year alone, 8.7% of bitcoin has been taken off exchange, presumably for long term storage 🏦
1/ to all the crypto people obsessing over the recent news of a "digital dollar" - it's terrifying and is basically the opposite of what crypto is all about (systemic hedge, self-sovereign, etc)
what they're talking about is similar to what Sweden has done
a short story...
2/ only 13% of people in Sweden use cash on a weekly basis
by contrast, 70% of Americans use cash on a weekly basis
why the difference? Sweden has great connectivity infrastructure (broadband), small population (under 10M), and a legacy of adopting new technology
3/ most Swedes are using a payment app called "Swish" to pay for things. it's basically like Venmo, and allows free and instant transfers. all you need is a phone number. but...