Thread by @gtryan

Hooo baby. 46,819 votes recorded yesterday gets us up to 200,995 total votes cast in the runoff elections so far.

And next week we get to start seeing what the early in-person numbers look like too.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com

Now, this is a dangerous game to play but I've started looking at some numbers based on the # of applications in so far, and the results from the 2020 general election in each county for mail votes.

First, these metrics were very different for President and the 2 Senate races.

Biden won the mail vote by 398,572 votes (65/34)
Ossoff won by 333,437 (62/36)
Combined D's in the special won by 336,740 (62/36)

Right now, based on applying the mail breakdown in the general to the runoff applications by county, Democrats would be up by 318k-366k votes.

Those are good numbers for them! But they need the applications to actually become votes, and they need it to be that higher number.

Also, once early voting starts, they need the big counties to keep showing up. Democrats only won Cobb and Gwinnett early in-person voting with 55%-57% of the vote. That's not a huge margin, and if it falls it would mean big trouble.

So yeah, mail is performing like Democrats would generally hope it would but there's a long way to go. Here's to more and better information next week!