Welcome to the first day of early voting in Georgia's runoff election! The data is going to get a lot fuller and more interesting starting tomorrow, but today we can see where we ended up during the mail-only voting period.
Applications are up to 1.22M, within 7% of where we were for the 2020 general when in-person voting started even with much less time for people to get their applications in.
The racial breakdown for these applicants are much more non-white than what we saw in the general, when about 60% of early voters were white.
Total votes are up to 260,263. This is much lower than at this point in the general but again that's due to timing. Last week through Wednesday (there's a reporting lag, so this is about what I'm comfortable with) had more mail voters than the same week in the 2020 general.
Nearly 6,000 of these voters did not vote in the 2020 general, and another 1,700 of them were election day voters.
Tomorrow's update will be a lot more fun since we'll really get to start seeing what turnout is gonna look like.
Stay tuned!
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Little updates from another dozen counties, and we're up to 55 total counties certified (out of 159 total, for those of you not familiar with Georgia).
I’ve watched a lot of early vote numbers come in today, and have been tracking the margins vs what existing vote predicts they’d be vs what the deficit is.
Right now Biden’s down by 38,126. I think he’s got ~44,500 margin in the outstanding votes.
The first batch of Houston County mail ballots have reported. The county was 60/38 in 2016 and pretty much in line with that after early in-person and day-of votes were counted this year.
Mail votes so far:
Biden - 2.026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)
There are still ~20k mail ballots to go in Houston County it looks like, but this was a county that was supposed to help protect against the Atlanta surge.
If Biden is actually making up ground here, it’s going to be real trouble for Trump.
To follow up here, and thanks to @JoshCrawfordNE for the tip, a peek at Jeff Davis County (yeahhhh, that one. problematic)
Small county, not impactful overall.
Full county went 81/18 for Trump.
Just released early vote totals were
Trump - 530
Biden - 520
As expected we cracked 4 million early votes in the file this morning. We have just over 3.7 million total early votes counted in the Presidential election. So still a little ways to go.
Most of these ballots are in the Democratic strongholds of Fulton and Dekalb, but there are plenty spread around the state as well from D-heavy spots like Clayton and Chatham, to R-heavy counties like Houston.
Trump’s lead is 101,795 at the moment.
A very rough analysis of looking at outstanding ballots by county, and those counties’ voting pattern, and would have Biden netting over 90,000 votes.