Welcome to the first day of early voting in Georgia's runoff election! The data is going to get a lot fuller and more interesting starting tomorrow, but today we can see where we ended up during the mail-only voting period.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Applications are up to 1.22M, within 7% of where we were for the 2020 general when in-person voting started even with much less time for people to get their applications in.
The racial breakdown for these applicants are much more non-white than what we saw in the general, when about 60% of early voters were white.

White: 53.0%
Black: 31.6%
Hispanic: 2.1%
Asian: 3.2%
Other/Unk: 10.6%
Total votes are up to 260,263. This is much lower than at this point in the general but again that's due to timing. Last week through Wednesday (there's a reporting lag, so this is about what I'm comfortable with) had more mail voters than the same week in the 2020 general.
Nearly 6,000 of these voters did not vote in the 2020 general, and another 1,700 of them were election day voters.
Tomorrow's update will be a lot more fun since we'll really get to start seeing what turnout is gonna look like.

Stay tuned!

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More from @gtryan

9 Nov
We're still waiting on more counties to start certifying their results in Georgia, but a couple more rounds of votes were reported over the weekend.

Fulton
Biden - 1,611 (71.7%)
Trump - 576 (25.6%)

Gwinnett
Biden - 280 (68.5%)
Trump - 123 (30.1%)

Calhoun
Biden - 1 (100.0%)
And there's the update! 10 more counties certified and a chunk more votes reported.

Gwinnett (certified)
Biden - 407 (58.2%)
Trump - 274 (39.2%)

Bibb
Biden - 226 (72.7%)
Trump - 77 (24.8%)

Everything Else
Biden - 81 (45.0%)
Trump - 96 (53.3%)
Little updates from another dozen counties, and we're up to 55 total counties certified (out of 159 total, for those of you not familiar with Georgia).

Results:
Biden - 138 (54.3%)
Trump - 112 (44.1%)

Margin: 10,620
Read 4 tweets
5 Nov
Ok, good afternoon everyone!

There have been a chunk of vote updates so far today, so let's go through them in a reasonable sequence.
First, some of the remaining big-sized counties:

Sumter
Biden - 815 (67.9%)
Trump - 372 (31.1%)

I expected a 530ish vote gain for Biden here, so a little underperfoming.

Putnam
Biden - 652 (47.8%)
Trump - 700 (51.3%)

I expected a 300 vote gain for Trump here, so big Biden win
Next, small updates from counties I thought were done! All of these are net wins for Biden that didn't factor into my projections.

Bartow - 129/125 (+4)
Fayette - 154/62 (+92)
Peach - 54/33 (+21)
Taylor - 83/31 (+52)
Read 19 tweets
5 Nov
I’ve watched a lot of early vote numbers come in today, and have been tracking the margins vs what existing vote predicts they’d be vs what the deficit is.

Right now Biden’s down by 38,126. I think he’s got ~44,500 margin in the outstanding votes.

Biden wins GA.
Predicted margins by outstanding (big) county:

Chatham - 8,225
Clayton - 5,207
Dekalb - 5,237
Dougherty - 1,740
Fulton - 20,025
Gwinnett - 2,393
Rockdale - 542
Sumter - 533
(Sumter’s not big, but that margin’s worth noting)
Read 4 tweets
4 Nov
So, interesting data point.

The first batch of Houston County mail ballots have reported. The county was 60/38 in 2016 and pretty much in line with that after early in-person and day-of votes were counted this year.

Mail votes so far:
Biden - 2.026 (55.8%)
Trump - 1,558 (42.9%)
There are still ~20k mail ballots to go in Houston County it looks like, but this was a county that was supposed to help protect against the Atlanta surge.

If Biden is actually making up ground here, it’s going to be real trouble for Trump.
To follow up here, and thanks to @JoshCrawfordNE for the tip, a peek at Jeff Davis County (yeahhhh, that one. problematic)

Small county, not impactful overall.

Full county went 81/18 for Trump.

Just released early vote totals were
Trump - 530
Biden - 520
Read 14 tweets
4 Nov
Good morning everyone!

As expected we cracked 4 million early votes in the file this morning. We have just over 3.7 million total early votes counted in the Presidential election. So still a little ways to go.
Most of these ballots are in the Democratic strongholds of Fulton and Dekalb, but there are plenty spread around the state as well from D-heavy spots like Clayton and Chatham, to R-heavy counties like Houston.
Trump’s lead is 101,795 at the moment.

A very rough analysis of looking at outstanding ballots by county, and those counties’ voting pattern, and would have Biden netting over 90,000 votes.
Read 5 tweets
4 Nov
First round of Fulton early vote numbers

Biden - 58,946 (80.2%)
Trump - 13,913 (18.9%)

2016 was:

Clinton - 191,819 (69.2%)
Trump - 77,341 (27.9%)
Fulton update as some more early votes and a handful of day-of votes come in

Biden - 65,941 (78.4%)
Trump - 17,410 (20.7%)
More Fulton data

Biden - 107,662 (76.7%)
Trump - 31,230 (22.2%)
Read 5 tweets

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