Another 67 #COVID19 deaths reported in Minnesota today, though that’s down from 94 yesterday and 75 last Saturday. The 7-day average is 63 deaths per day, just under a record high. Not replicating yesterday’s jump is welcome, but no sign yet of any decline in mortality. Image
Cases have gone up for the third day in a row — but each time lower than the same day last week, so the *trend* is fairly aggressively downward. The 7-day average is now 4,320 cases per day, down from 6,771 two weeks ago. Image
Similarly, Minnesota’s positivity rate is up day-over-day, but *down* week-over-week. The 7-day average is down to 9%, the lowest since late October. Image
Yesterday, Minnesota’s case decline put us to return to pre-spike case levels by Christmas Day. Today’s improvement accelerates that a little bit: if trends continue we’ll now get back to the ~1,500 cases per day level on Dec. 24: Image
Cases are falling in every region and every age bracket: ImageImage
Hospital admissions and bed use are both still trending down: ImageImage
Something else to note about Minnesota’s downward case trend today: about 5% of today’s newly reported cases were more than 2 weeks old, so the number of recent cases is down by even more than it appears. Here’s cases by sample date (which is distorted by Thanksgiving, n.b.): Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with David H. Montgomery

David H. Montgomery Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @dhmontgomery

14 Dec
Minnesota’s #COVID19 cases continue to decline rapidly — just over 3,000 newly reported cases today, compared to 5,300 last Monday. The 7-day average is down to about 3,700/day, or about where things were on Nov. 7. Image
At this rate, Minnesota’s average daily newly reported #COVID19 cases will be back to pre-surge levels before Christmas: Image
Last Monday’s tests produced 4,720 tests, down from 7,617 the Monday prior, 7,962 before then, and 8,702 the Monday before that. Image
Read 7 tweets
13 Dec
Another 85 reported #COVID19 deaths today in Minnesota, as a metric that had seemed like it was plateauing a week ago has resumed a deadly rise. The 7-day average COVID death rate is up to nearly 66 deaths/day, a record high. Image
Deaths are at record highs both in and out of long-term care facilities. The #COVID19 death rate outside of LTCs is higher than the death rate *in* them in the May peak. Image
As has been the case for a while, though, the terrible mortality numbers are balanced by improvements in almost every other metric. New #COVID19 cases continue to decline, with a 7-day average down to about 4,000 cases per day. from a peak over 7,000. Image
Read 9 tweets
12 Dec
Last week I wrote about how student radicals were one of the big drivers behind France's wave of revolutionary conspiracy in 1821-2. Today I'd like to talk a little bit more about the other big group of conspirators: soldiers (and especially ex-soldiers). 1/
2/ The archetypical anti-government veteran in France’s Bourbon Restoration (1814-1830) was the “demi-solde,” or “half-pay officer.” These were former soldiers who were no longer on active duty, but instead were sort of pensioned off, receiving half their old salary.
3/ At first glance, that doesn’t sound bad — you get half your old salary for doing nothing at all? But there are good reasons that many demi-soldes were quite resentful.
Read 18 tweets
20 Nov
So last night, @mngop Chair @jkcarnah claimed "extreme abnormalities and statistical variations from Minnesota's historic voter trends” in the 2020 election. I delved into her specific claims, which turned out to be vague, off-base or simply wrong: mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@mngop @jkcarnah 2/ For example, @jkcarnah wrote, "Democrats saw declining vote totals in two consecutive presidential elections in Wright County, including a 14.8% decline in 2016, then in 2020 there was a sudden surge twice as large for Biden with 52.1% growth.” But…
@mngop @jkcarnah 3/ This is a claim based on total votes for Democratic presidential candidates, and ignores the fact that 2020 saw a massive turnout spike and a collapse in support for 3rd party candidates. Biden got 8K more votes in Wright County — and so did Trump!
Read 15 tweets
20 Nov
Today was another bad day for #COVID19 deaths & hospitalizations in Minnesota. But I want to focus on better news: newly reported cases went down, while testing volume went up! This is exactly what we want to see (repeated on more than one day) when looking for a possible peak.
Now, this good news is good only in context. Even today’s “good” positivity rate is still 11.7%, far above the target of 5%. But in the context of this week’s slightly slower case growth rate and flat positivity rate, it’s slowly strengthening the case for an approaching peak.
Of course, bad reports Saturday and Sunday could change the direction of the trend again, making all this moot. All trends continue until they don’t! But compared to the ever-escalating bad news of past weeks, these possibly illusory glimmers of hope are an improvement!
Read 6 tweets
19 Nov
Another day, another grisly #COVID19 death record in Minnesota. 72 deaths, with a seven-day average of 41/day (also a record).
Today saw cases shoot back up after a few days of decline — as we would expect given that it’s Thursday, when reported testing volume usually increases. Today saw the second-highest number of reported cases on record, but also the second-highest number of reported tests.
With both cases and tests up, Minnesota’s positivity rate barely budged. It’s been largely flat (albeit high) for more than a week, even as cases continue to rise. I’m watching this stat very closely.
Read 8 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!