Minnesota’s #COVID19 cases continue to decline rapidly — just over 3,000 newly reported cases today, compared to 5,300 last Monday. The 7-day average is down to about 3,700/day, or about where things were on Nov. 7.
At this rate, Minnesota’s average daily newly reported #COVID19 cases will be back to pre-surge levels before Christmas:
Last Monday’s tests produced 4,720 tests, down from 7,617 the Monday prior, 7,962 before then, and 8,702 the Monday before that.
And these drops in case numbers aren’t a factor of low testing. The positivity rate is dropping, too. Today’s daily positivity rate was 6.7%, down from 8.3% last Monday and 13.4% the week before. The 7-day average positivity rate is 8.6%.
#COVID19 hospital admissions are dropping, too, though we’ve had a couple days now of ICU rates sort of plateauing that I’m watching.
18 newly reported deaths today is down from 85 yesterday, but Mondays and Tuesdays often have low death totals. Last Monday had 21 deaths. The 7-day average is 65 deaths/day, down very slightly from what it was yesterday, and way up from past weeks:
A massive plunge the last two days in the number of active, confirmed #COVID19 cases, as the nearly 18,000 cases MN reported the Saturday and Sunday after Thanksgiving finally cycle out of the average.

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More from @dhmontgomery

13 Dec
Another 85 reported #COVID19 deaths today in Minnesota, as a metric that had seemed like it was plateauing a week ago has resumed a deadly rise. The 7-day average COVID death rate is up to nearly 66 deaths/day, a record high.
Deaths are at record highs both in and out of long-term care facilities. The #COVID19 death rate outside of LTCs is higher than the death rate *in* them in the May peak.
As has been the case for a while, though, the terrible mortality numbers are balanced by improvements in almost every other metric. New #COVID19 cases continue to decline, with a 7-day average down to about 4,000 cases per day. from a peak over 7,000.
Read 9 tweets
12 Dec
Last week I wrote about how student radicals were one of the big drivers behind France's wave of revolutionary conspiracy in 1821-2. Today I'd like to talk a little bit more about the other big group of conspirators: soldiers (and especially ex-soldiers). 1/
2/ The archetypical anti-government veteran in France’s Bourbon Restoration (1814-1830) was the “demi-solde,” or “half-pay officer.” These were former soldiers who were no longer on active duty, but instead were sort of pensioned off, receiving half their old salary.
3/ At first glance, that doesn’t sound bad — you get half your old salary for doing nothing at all? But there are good reasons that many demi-soldes were quite resentful.
Read 18 tweets
12 Dec
Another 67 #COVID19 deaths reported in Minnesota today, though that’s down from 94 yesterday and 75 last Saturday. The 7-day average is 63 deaths per day, just under a record high. Not replicating yesterday’s jump is welcome, but no sign yet of any decline in mortality. Image
Cases have gone up for the third day in a row — but each time lower than the same day last week, so the *trend* is fairly aggressively downward. The 7-day average is now 4,320 cases per day, down from 6,771 two weeks ago. Image
Similarly, Minnesota’s positivity rate is up day-over-day, but *down* week-over-week. The 7-day average is down to 9%, the lowest since late October. Image
Read 7 tweets
20 Nov
So last night, @mngop Chair @jkcarnah claimed "extreme abnormalities and statistical variations from Minnesota's historic voter trends” in the 2020 election. I delved into her specific claims, which turned out to be vague, off-base or simply wrong: mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@mngop @jkcarnah 2/ For example, @jkcarnah wrote, "Democrats saw declining vote totals in two consecutive presidential elections in Wright County, including a 14.8% decline in 2016, then in 2020 there was a sudden surge twice as large for Biden with 52.1% growth.” But…
@mngop @jkcarnah 3/ This is a claim based on total votes for Democratic presidential candidates, and ignores the fact that 2020 saw a massive turnout spike and a collapse in support for 3rd party candidates. Biden got 8K more votes in Wright County — and so did Trump!
Read 15 tweets
20 Nov
Today was another bad day for #COVID19 deaths & hospitalizations in Minnesota. But I want to focus on better news: newly reported cases went down, while testing volume went up! This is exactly what we want to see (repeated on more than one day) when looking for a possible peak.
Now, this good news is good only in context. Even today’s “good” positivity rate is still 11.7%, far above the target of 5%. But in the context of this week’s slightly slower case growth rate and flat positivity rate, it’s slowly strengthening the case for an approaching peak.
Of course, bad reports Saturday and Sunday could change the direction of the trend again, making all this moot. All trends continue until they don’t! But compared to the ever-escalating bad news of past weeks, these possibly illusory glimmers of hope are an improvement!
Read 6 tweets
19 Nov
Another day, another grisly #COVID19 death record in Minnesota. 72 deaths, with a seven-day average of 41/day (also a record).
Today saw cases shoot back up after a few days of decline — as we would expect given that it’s Thursday, when reported testing volume usually increases. Today saw the second-highest number of reported cases on record, but also the second-highest number of reported tests.
With both cases and tests up, Minnesota’s positivity rate barely budged. It’s been largely flat (albeit high) for more than a week, even as cases continue to rise. I’m watching this stat very closely.
Read 8 tweets

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