Another 85 reported #COVID19 deaths today in Minnesota, as a metric that had seemed like it was plateauing a week ago has resumed a deadly rise. The 7-day average COVID death rate is up to nearly 66 deaths/day, a record high. 
Deaths are at record highs both in and out of long-term care facilities. The #COVID19 death rate outside of LTCs is higher than the death rate *in* them in the May peak.
As has been the case for a while, though, the terrible mortality numbers are balanced by improvements in almost every other metric. New #COVID19 cases continue to decline, with a 7-day average down to about 4,000 cases per day. from a peak over 7,000.
And this fall in cases isn’t driven by testing volume, either. New tests grew by more than new cases in today’s report, and the positivity rate fell again, now down to a 7-day average of 8.9 percent, from a peak of 15 percent.
#COVID19 hospital admission rates are also dropping (though some metrics suggest ICU admissions might have flattened out — too soon to say if that’s real or not):
#COVID19 cases have doubled since 33 days ago (which is good — 33 days ago, cases were on pace to double in just 25 days). Right now they’re on pace to double in 63 days, or by Feb. 14, and this is trending longer.
Deaths, though, are on pace to double in 44 days.
Deaths, though, are on pace to double in 44 days.
In recent weeks, the #COVID19 death rate has been highest in parts of rural Minnesota. But even as some of those regions are seeing mild improvements, #COVID19 mortality is rising in the metro:
With no sign of the case improvement slowing, Minnesota is still on pace to see its case volume get back to pre-surge case levels before Christmas (and this is by report date, so by sample date this would happen a few days sooner):
(Yesterday this chart showed Dec. 24 as the target date, and today Dec. 23, but that’s not a big difference — it’s a question of decimals and rounding.)
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