Last week I wrote about how student radicals were one of the big drivers behind France's wave of revolutionary conspiracy in 1821-2. Today I'd like to talk a little bit more about the other big group of conspirators: soldiers (and especially ex-soldiers). 1/
2/ The archetypical anti-government veteran in France’s Bourbon Restoration (1814-1830) was the “demi-solde,” or “half-pay officer.” These were former soldiers who were no longer on active duty, but instead were sort of pensioned off, receiving half their old salary.
3/ At first glance, that doesn’t sound bad — you get half your old salary for doing nothing at all? But there are good reasons that many demi-soldes were quite resentful.
4/ The most obvious is that these were professional military officers, who enjoyed their career and were good at it, and now had that denied to them.
5/ But even beyond that, the circumstances of being a demi-solde had limitations. You weren’t actually pensioned — you were technically still in the military. Which meant that you were forbidden to work other jobs. Your half salary was ALL you got (unless you had wealth).
6/ You could always quit the army, of course, and do whatever you wanted. But these were, again, professional soldiers who wanted to be in the army. Being a demi-solde meant at least a *chance* that you’d eventually get called up to active duty again.
7/ The circumstances of all this was the military wind-down after the Napoleonic Wars. King Louis XVIII slashed the army’s ranks for budget reasons — France was nearly broke, and didn’t NEED a huge army now that it was at peace, so reductions saved money — but also politics.
8/ France’s huge Napoleonic army included lots of army officers who were still politically sympathetic to Napoleon — “Bonapartists.” The Hundred Days in 1815, when Napoleon escaped Elba and co-opted the French army, showed the danger of leaving these men in command.
9/ So huge numbers of active duty officers were put on half-pay status. And the officers most likely to keep their posts were the ones who were ostentatiously loyal to Louis XVIII, while Bonapartist officers often found themselves on half-pay.
10/ On active duty, a captain might earn 148 francs/month, or 1,776/year, a respectable salary. A lieutenant could earn 88/month, a sous-lieutenant 82.
Now halve that: 74, 44, 41 francs per month.
An unskilled day laborer earned between 30 & 60 francs/month at this time.
11/ Beyond just scraping by in forced retirement, unable to do another trade, the government (very reasonably) saw these men as security risks — and so subjected them to constant surveillance. Insult to injury.
12/ So it’s not surprising that these demi-soldes became notorious anti-government intriguers, and that many of them were quick join up when secret societies began plotting coups in 1821, as I cover in Episode 23 of @TheSiecle: thesiecle.com/episode23/
@TheSiecle 13/ In fact, this idea of the Bonapartist demi-solde has become a bit overblown. Only a small share of the thousands of half-pay officers were ever identified as seditious; as one historian writes, “many of them were ostentatiously loyal in the hope of recall.”
14/ But it wasn’t a myth. A "very vocal and highly visible minority” of demi-soldes were active in the political opposition, through both legal and illegal means, during the Bourbon Restoration.
15/ Those demi-soldes lucky enough to live in Paris were especially likely to conspire.
Another drawback of half-pay status was you were required to live in your home town — often some tiny village these officers had left a decade or two ago, and had few ties to.
16/ In Paris, aside from the city’s many other charms, there was at least the possibility that you could work some connections with the war ministry to get put back on active duty. It happened occasionally, if rarely. In your “home town” that was much less likely.
17/ So these put-upon half-pay officers were prime recruits for anti-government conspiracies — and welcome recruits, since veterans could be very useful in getting to the conspirators’ real recruitment targets: *active-duty* soldiers, who could provide the muscle for a coup.
18/18 You can find out how this conspiring all went down in the latest episode of my history podcast, @TheSiecle: thesiecle.com/episode23/
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Minnesota’s #COVID19 cases continue to decline rapidly — just over 3,000 newly reported cases today, compared to 5,300 last Monday. The 7-day average is down to about 3,700/day, or about where things were on Nov. 7.
At this rate, Minnesota’s average daily newly reported #COVID19 cases will be back to pre-surge levels before Christmas:
Last Monday’s tests produced 4,720 tests, down from 7,617 the Monday prior, 7,962 before then, and 8,702 the Monday before that.
Another 85 reported #COVID19 deaths today in Minnesota, as a metric that had seemed like it was plateauing a week ago has resumed a deadly rise. The 7-day average COVID death rate is up to nearly 66 deaths/day, a record high.
Deaths are at record highs both in and out of long-term care facilities. The #COVID19 death rate outside of LTCs is higher than the death rate *in* them in the May peak.
As has been the case for a while, though, the terrible mortality numbers are balanced by improvements in almost every other metric. New #COVID19 cases continue to decline, with a 7-day average down to about 4,000 cases per day. from a peak over 7,000.
Another 67 #COVID19 deaths reported in Minnesota today, though that’s down from 94 yesterday and 75 last Saturday. The 7-day average is 63 deaths per day, just under a record high. Not replicating yesterday’s jump is welcome, but no sign yet of any decline in mortality.
Cases have gone up for the third day in a row — but each time lower than the same day last week, so the *trend* is fairly aggressively downward. The 7-day average is now 4,320 cases per day, down from 6,771 two weeks ago.
Similarly, Minnesota’s positivity rate is up day-over-day, but *down* week-over-week. The 7-day average is down to 9%, the lowest since late October.
So last night, @mngop Chair @jkcarnah claimed "extreme abnormalities and statistical variations from Minnesota's historic voter trends” in the 2020 election. I delved into her specific claims, which turned out to be vague, off-base or simply wrong: mprnews.org/story/2020/11/…
@mngop@jkcarnah 2/ For example, @jkcarnah wrote, "Democrats saw declining vote totals in two consecutive presidential elections in Wright County, including a 14.8% decline in 2016, then in 2020 there was a sudden surge twice as large for Biden with 52.1% growth.” But…
@mngop@jkcarnah 3/ This is a claim based on total votes for Democratic presidential candidates, and ignores the fact that 2020 saw a massive turnout spike and a collapse in support for 3rd party candidates. Biden got 8K more votes in Wright County — and so did Trump!
Today was another bad day for #COVID19 deaths & hospitalizations in Minnesota. But I want to focus on better news: newly reported cases went down, while testing volume went up! This is exactly what we want to see (repeated on more than one day) when looking for a possible peak.
Now, this good news is good only in context. Even today’s “good” positivity rate is still 11.7%, far above the target of 5%. But in the context of this week’s slightly slower case growth rate and flat positivity rate, it’s slowly strengthening the case for an approaching peak.
Of course, bad reports Saturday and Sunday could change the direction of the trend again, making all this moot. All trends continue until they don’t! But compared to the ever-escalating bad news of past weeks, these possibly illusory glimmers of hope are an improvement!
Another day, another grisly #COVID19 death record in Minnesota. 72 deaths, with a seven-day average of 41/day (also a record).
Today saw cases shoot back up after a few days of decline — as we would expect given that it’s Thursday, when reported testing volume usually increases. Today saw the second-highest number of reported cases on record, but also the second-highest number of reported tests.
With both cases and tests up, Minnesota’s positivity rate barely budged. It’s been largely flat (albeit high) for more than a week, even as cases continue to rise. I’m watching this stat very closely.