Thread by @jonworth

So there’s a theory doing the rounds that because Johnson and vdL stepped back from the brink yesterday means a Deal is on...

I’d be *very* careful with this

First, I don’t think they stepped back from the brink. For weeks neither side has wanted publicly to be the one seen to pull the 🔌

Yesterday was the latest example of that

Second, I still maintain that Johnson has not made a decision here. Some days he leans towards Deal, sometimes towards No Deal

He has been stuck for weeks, and still is. He’d ideally just not decide *anything*

Third, while an understanding of the cost of No Deal is increasing, so the short term benefit of Deal is decreasing - as @AnnaJerzewska has pointed out it’s too late for businesses to adjust to what’s in a Deal by 1 Jan now

Fourth, by leaving all this so late the path to ratify EU side becomes really messy. The EP can’t do its scrutiny now, so will extract some concession if provisional ratification is to be needed.

Fifth, a Deal agreed now will have to contain some standstill periods or implementation periods that a Deal agreed a month ago would not have needed - giving ERGers another reason to scream betrayal.

Sixth, the series of deadlines and calls last week helped structure things, even if the deadlines were missed. We do not even have those for the next few days.

In short: I don’t see any fundamental change based on what happened yesterday. Except perhaps that the path to ratify a Deal is now even more messy than it was before.

/ends