Jon Worth Profile picture
14 Dec, 9 tweets, 3 min read
If there is one aspect of negotiation tactics people think they understand, it's the idea that forcing the timetable increases the chances of an agreement

The tick-tock, tick-tock of the clock forces the sides together

In Brexit it's not so simple
If the topic of negotiation is between two parties, and is binary in nature, a deadline does work

Take for example two football clubs that might (or might not) transfer a player on transfer deadline day - that's why you get a slew of deals at 5 minutes to midnight
The problem is that Brexit - in this phase - is only partially like that

Yes, there is a hard deadline - if there is nothing *ratified* by 31 December, there will be No Deal

Ireland's Taoiseach Martin says publicly that this is the deadline:
But that is the deadline for the *ratification* of a Deal (or provisional ratification - let's set that to the side for a moment)

The problem then is that an agreement - that could *then* be ratified - is going to be needed earlier

But how much earlier?
Discontent is rising in the European Parliament, fearful they will be bounced into rubber stamping something without adequate scrutiny

What is the EP's deadline? Or what's the EP's price for agreeing to a tighter deadline? That's a negotiation in itself

What about UK side?

Here the assumption is that primary legislation would be needed to implement a Deal in the UK. You can pass all that in a day if you need to, but should you?

The likes of Iain Duncan Smith cried they were hoodwinked last time

It's a negotiation too
Then there are the practical implications...

The closer you get to the 31 December ratification deadline, but there is no agreement, so the practical short term costs rise - as explained very well in this thread:

So you end up with a multiple level game - a negotiation with sub-negotiations

In one way the political cost *rises* the longer you wait - the European Parliament can extract more concessions. And there is a *practical* cost to waiting too
Sure, the ticking clock might focus minds in the Brexit talks. But it is not the only impact. This is Brexit after all, whether nothing is simple

/ends

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jon Worth

Jon Worth Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jonworth

15 Dec
OK, it can be avoided no more.

This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.

Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.

It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.

1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:

1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021

2/25
The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.

And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.

We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.

3/25
Read 25 tweets
14 Dec
I'd not thought I'd need to be asking this, but here we are...

We know the way through to a Deal with no time, EU side (with provisional application, and a vote in the EP in January), but what about UK side?
The assumption has been that primary legislation would be needed, UK side, and this would need 2-3 days of parliamentary time. Could be reduced to 1 if absolutely necessary.
So with 3 days next week that *could* be used, and 3 between Christmas and New Year, 23 Dec is pretty much the latest a Deal could be struck without making a major procedural headache UK side?
Read 4 tweets
14 Dec
So there’s a theory doing the rounds that because Johnson and vdL stepped back from the brink yesterday means a Deal is on...

I’d be *very* careful with this
First, I don’t think they stepped back from the brink. For weeks neither side has wanted publicly to be the one seen to pull the 🔌

Yesterday was the latest example of that
Second, I still maintain that Johnson has not made a decision here. Some days he leans towards Deal, sometimes towards No Deal

He has been stuck for weeks, and still is. He’d ideally just not decide *anything*
Read 8 tweets
10 Dec
I see some well known people - including the 🇬🇧 Foreign Secretary and the BBC's Political Editor - are struggling a bit with their #Brexit terminology today

So here's a terminology guide that is as simple as possible.

1/10
DEAL means there is a piece of paper (or, to be precise, more like 600 pages) that both 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 agree and sign, and is OKed by the institutions on both sides, by 31st December.

Were this agreed it would be the basis for 🇬🇧-🇪🇺 relations medium term.

2/10
NO DEAL means there is no piece of paper agreed and signed by 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 by 31st December.

Unlike a DEAL, we do not know how long this NO DEAL (or perhaps better NO DEAL PERIOD) would last. Weeks? Months?

3/10
Read 10 tweets
10 Dec
There's something personally psychologically weird about this morning

I can - logically - see no way to a Deal by 31 December now

But at the back of my brain a kind of "what if?" keeps nagging at me
It's like what supporting a football team about to be relegated must be like.

You know a result in some other game has to end 17-0 for your team to be saved, and the team that needs to win 17-0 has a waterlogged pitch and its main striker injured...
... but until that result comes in you cannot really, completely and fully process what is happening
Read 5 tweets
10 Dec
I see London think tank Brexit Twitter’s line is “deadlines have come and gone, so 🤷‍♂️”

Sunday may indeed not be a solid deadline, but yesterday’s 🍽 changed a few things
First, a meeting was meant to solve what 2x 📞 between vdL and Johnson hadn’t. It didn’t. Differences remain.

Second, at each vdL-Johnson 📞 there was a commitment to speak again. This time there isn’t. It’s back to Barnier-Frost who’ve been trying for months.
Third, were something to emerge Sunday there’s no time for the EP to ratify it. Sunday might not be a deadline as such, but it loses 4 days more.

Fourth, the Commission has now triggered No Deal contingency.
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!