Tweet

@jillongovt

More from @jonworth

Jon Worth

@jonworth

15 Dec

OK, it can be avoided no more.

This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.

Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.

It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.

1/25

If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:

1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021

2/25

The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.

And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.

We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.

3/25

Read 25 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

14 Dec

If there is one aspect of negotiation tactics people think they understand, it's the idea that forcing the timetable increases the chances of an agreement

The tick-tock, tick-tock of the clock forces the sides together

In Brexit it's not so simple

If the topic of negotiation is between two parties, and is binary in nature, a deadline does work

Take for example two football clubs that might (or might not) transfer a player on transfer deadline day - that's why you get a slew of deals at 5 minutes to midnight

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1338399228847120384

The problem is that Brexit - in this phase - is only partially like that

Yes, there is a hard deadline - if there is nothing *ratified* by 31 December, there will be No Deal

Ireland's Taoiseach Martin says publicly that this is the deadline:

https://twitter.com/RTENewsPaulC/status/1338399228847120384

Read 9 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

14 Dec

So there’s a theory doing the rounds that because Johnson and vdL stepped back from the brink yesterday means a Deal is on...

I’d be *very* careful with this

First, I don’t think they stepped back from the brink. For weeks neither side has wanted publicly to be the one seen to pull the 🔌

Yesterday was the latest example of that

Second, I still maintain that Johnson has not made a decision here. Some days he leans towards Deal, sometimes towards No Deal

He has been stuck for weeks, and still is. He’d ideally just not decide *anything*

Read 8 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

10 Dec

I see some well known people - including the 🇬🇧 Foreign Secretary and the BBC's Political Editor - are struggling a bit with their #Brexit terminology today

So here's a terminology guide that is as simple as possible.

1/10

DEAL means there is a piece of paper (or, to be precise, more like 600 pages) that both 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 agree and sign, and is OKed by the institutions on both sides, by 31st December.

Were this agreed it would be the basis for 🇬🇧-🇪🇺 relations medium term.

2/10

NO DEAL means there is no piece of paper agreed and signed by 🇬🇧 and 🇪🇺 by 31st December.

Unlike a DEAL, we do not know how long this NO DEAL (or perhaps better NO DEAL PERIOD) would last. Weeks? Months?

3/10

Read 10 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

10 Dec

There's something personally psychologically weird about this morning

I can - logically - see no way to a Deal by 31 December now

But at the back of my brain a kind of "what if?" keeps nagging at me

It's like what supporting a football team about to be relegated must be like.

You know a result in some other game has to end 17-0 for your team to be saved, and the team that needs to win 17-0 has a waterlogged pitch and its main striker injured...

... but until that result comes in you cannot really, completely and fully process what is happening

Read 5 tweets

Jon Worth

@jonworth

10 Dec

I see London think tank Brexit Twitter’s line is “deadlines have come and gone, so 🤷‍♂️”

Sunday may indeed not be a solid deadline, but yesterday’s 🍽 changed a few things

First, a meeting was meant to solve what 2x 📞 between vdL and Johnson hadn’t. It didn’t. Differences remain.

Second, at each vdL-Johnson 📞 there was a commitment to speak again. This time there isn’t. It’s back to Barnier-Frost who’ve been trying for months.

Third, were something to emerge Sunday there’s no time for the EP to ratify it. Sunday might not be a deadline as such, but it loses 4 days more.

Fourth, the Commission has now triggered No Deal contingency.

Read 4 tweets

Share this page!

Jon Worth

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

More from @jonworth

Jon Worth

Jon Worth

Jon Worth

Jon Worth

Jon Worth

Jon Worth

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Like this author's thread?