A First Look at the Military Lessons of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict | @KofmanMichael russiamatters.org/analysis/first…
The conflict "helped settle the q. on whether legacy air defenses...could be suitable or adapted to dealing with contemporary drones. The answer is decidedly negative, especially when combinations of drones are used for target identification and strikes, or via swarming tactics."
"The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict reiterated that individual air defense systems do not aggregate into a layered or integrated air defense, which requires short, medium and operational range systems working with a common picture and with sufficient density."
+1 I guess that's also the main lesson from the 1973 Yom Kippur War: "A smaller ground force, which is well-protected from air attacks, will prove a wiser investment than a large fleet of armor and artillery that lacks effective defense from the air."
"Modern militaries tend to worship at the altar of maneuver warfare, and the U.S. in particular is vested in the cognitive effects of maneuver on enemy forces, or in doctrinal parlance, the ability to 'impose multiple dilemmas.'"
"However, the diffusion of cheap, high-quality sensors on the battlefield negates many of the benefits of terrain and camouflage and can easily be backed by a reconnaissance-strike package. This raises doubts about the ability of maneuver to generate cognitive dilemmas..."

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More from @HoansSolo

6 Oct
+1 “A critical challenge to be worked out is how to transition from a dispersed approach to a concentrated attack, since at the forming-up point there will be a significant vulnerability to artillery, anti-tank guided weapons and other threats.” rusi.org/publication/ru…
Very good analysis above by @Jack_Watling.
A few quick thoughts.

1. (AI-enabled?) battlespace management systems will likely be needed for coordinated dispersed maneuver warfare in the future.
1a. Upgraded low probability of detection/low probability of intercept (LPD/LPI) communications integrated in a military internet of things architecture for C2/ISTAR could be of interest here. But tech capabilities alone will not be the answer.
Read 5 tweets
4 Oct
There is a chance that the impact of armed UAVs on future wars will be exxagetated as a result of the ongoing #Armenia-#Azerbajian conflict, similar to how the “game changing “nature of tactical air strikes/dive bombers was misinterpreted by the Luftwaffe after Spanish Civil War.
Imperfect analogy I know, but in both cases smaller actors fought against one another lacking integrated air defense capabilities and well-trained troops fielding cutting edge mil. equipment on a large scale.TB2 is also an evolutionary platform similar to what US fielded in past.
Apropos, for Mexican artist J.C. Orozco, the dive bomber and the tank where the symbols of modern warfare in this 1940 painting. #MOMA #NYC Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Jun
Ein paar Gedanken zur #Bundesheer Debatte in #Österreich.

Laut Medienberichten wird die militärische Landesverteidigung auf ein Minimum reduziert (Schwerpunkt Infanterie), das Militär auf Cyberdefence u. Katastrophenschutz ausgerichtet.

orf.at/stories/317082…

#thread 👇
1/n
Mit Ausnahme von Cyberdefence wird hier institutionalisiert was de-facto schon lange der Fall ist: Das #Bundesheer "kann nicht" mil. Landesverteidigung.

1.) Im jetzigen Rahmen sind effektive konventionelle Operationen und der Kampf der verbundenen Waffen nicht möglich.
In der Geschichte des Bundesheeres war solch ein Einsatz aber auch nie möglich aus mehreren Gründen, aber ich nenne nur einen:

Fehlende Luftabwehr (z.b., Langstrecken Boden-Luft-Raketen) und Lufstreitkräfte die z.b. Bereitstellungsräume von Panzerreserven schützen würden.
Read 24 tweets
23 Jun
US dropping/not enforcing CAATSA re. India's purchase of Russian-made S-400 Triumf air defense systems for service in the Indian Air Force would paradoxically be a concrete sign for closer US-India ties.
India and Russia signed a $5.5 billion contract for the S-400 systems in 2018. Russia has reportedly delayed delivery of S-400 system to December 2021 due to Covid-19. Delivery of 1st unit was expected by October 2020 with delivery of all 5 squadrons completed by April 2023.
Russia pushed back date to 2025. India, per media reports, wants accelerated delivery schedule now.

In 2019, US reportedly offered India the MIM-104F Patriot (PAC-3) SAM defense system and Terminal high Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in lieu of the S-400.
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
US-India defense deals since 2015 short #thread

Sept. 2015: 22 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and 15 CH-47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopter for estimated $3billion.

#TrumpInIndia #TrumpIndiaVisit
(Included in the seal above deal are 812 AGM-114L-3 Hellfire Longbow missiles, 542 AGM-114R-3 Hellfire-II missiles, 245 Stinger Block I-92H missiles .)

July 20 2016: $1 billion follow-on order for 4 Poseidon 8I Neptune planes. #TrumpInIndia
Nov. 2016: Deal for 145 M777 howitzers from BAE Systems at cost of around $750 million

2017- No deals AFAIK
2018- No deals AFAIK
Read 5 tweets
16 Aug 19
The timing of this leak gives the impression that Taiwan is once more used as a bargaining chip in Trump's trade negotiations with China, but it also more and more looks like that the F-16 deal will indeed happen. wapo.st/2z0FCGP?tid=ss…
Guess this can only be officially approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee/ House Foreign Affairs Committee after the six-week congressional recess, which began on July 26.
However, US State Department can still officially approve the possible arms deal.

FWIW: The last sale of U.S. fighter jets to Taiwan took place in 1992, under the George H.W. Bush administration.
Read 7 tweets

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