+1 “A critical challenge to be worked out is how to transition from a dispersed approach to a concentrated attack, since at the forming-up point there will be a significant vulnerability to artillery, anti-tank guided weapons and other threats.” rusi.org/publication/ru…
Very good analysis above by @Jack_Watling.
A few quick thoughts.

1. (AI-enabled?) battlespace management systems will likely be needed for coordinated dispersed maneuver warfare in the future.
1a. Upgraded low probability of detection/low probability of intercept (LPD/LPI) communications integrated in a military internet of things architecture for C2/ISTAR could be of interest here. But tech capabilities alone will not be the answer.
2. Advantage of NATO vis-a-vis others in executing dispersed operations is mission command doctrine. However, dispersed maneuver would likely require decentralized decision-making/execution rather than centralized decision-making/dec. execution (raises deconfliction problems.)
3. Short-range air defenses/elecronic warfare capabilities to cover dispersed formations will indeed be important. I'd add cyber capabilities, especially for beginning of any hostilities. This mandates organizational restructuring/regrouping.

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More from @HoansSolo

4 Oct
There is a chance that the impact of armed UAVs on future wars will be exxagetated as a result of the ongoing #Armenia-#Azerbajian conflict, similar to how the “game changing “nature of tactical air strikes/dive bombers was misinterpreted by the Luftwaffe after Spanish Civil War.
Imperfect analogy I know, but in both cases smaller actors fought against one another lacking integrated air defense capabilities and well-trained troops fielding cutting edge mil. equipment on a large scale.TB2 is also an evolutionary platform similar to what US fielded in past.
Apropos, for Mexican artist J.C. Orozco, the dive bomber and the tank where the symbols of modern warfare in this 1940 painting. #MOMA #NYC Image
Read 4 tweets
24 Jun
Ein paar Gedanken zur #Bundesheer Debatte in #Österreich.

Laut Medienberichten wird die militärische Landesverteidigung auf ein Minimum reduziert (Schwerpunkt Infanterie), das Militär auf Cyberdefence u. Katastrophenschutz ausgerichtet.

orf.at/stories/317082…

#thread 👇
1/n
Mit Ausnahme von Cyberdefence wird hier institutionalisiert was de-facto schon lange der Fall ist: Das #Bundesheer "kann nicht" mil. Landesverteidigung.

1.) Im jetzigen Rahmen sind effektive konventionelle Operationen und der Kampf der verbundenen Waffen nicht möglich.
In der Geschichte des Bundesheeres war solch ein Einsatz aber auch nie möglich aus mehreren Gründen, aber ich nenne nur einen:

Fehlende Luftabwehr (z.b., Langstrecken Boden-Luft-Raketen) und Lufstreitkräfte die z.b. Bereitstellungsräume von Panzerreserven schützen würden.
Read 24 tweets
23 Jun
US dropping/not enforcing CAATSA re. India's purchase of Russian-made S-400 Triumf air defense systems for service in the Indian Air Force would paradoxically be a concrete sign for closer US-India ties.
India and Russia signed a $5.5 billion contract for the S-400 systems in 2018. Russia has reportedly delayed delivery of S-400 system to December 2021 due to Covid-19. Delivery of 1st unit was expected by October 2020 with delivery of all 5 squadrons completed by April 2023.
Russia pushed back date to 2025. India, per media reports, wants accelerated delivery schedule now.

In 2019, US reportedly offered India the MIM-104F Patriot (PAC-3) SAM defense system and Terminal high Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in lieu of the S-400.
Read 5 tweets
24 Feb
US-India defense deals since 2015 short #thread

Sept. 2015: 22 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters and 15 CH-47F Chinook heavy-lift helicopter for estimated $3billion.

#TrumpInIndia #TrumpIndiaVisit
(Included in the seal above deal are 812 AGM-114L-3 Hellfire Longbow missiles, 542 AGM-114R-3 Hellfire-II missiles, 245 Stinger Block I-92H missiles .)

July 20 2016: $1 billion follow-on order for 4 Poseidon 8I Neptune planes. #TrumpInIndia
Nov. 2016: Deal for 145 M777 howitzers from BAE Systems at cost of around $750 million

2017- No deals AFAIK
2018- No deals AFAIK
Read 5 tweets
16 Aug 19
The timing of this leak gives the impression that Taiwan is once more used as a bargaining chip in Trump's trade negotiations with China, but it also more and more looks like that the F-16 deal will indeed happen. wapo.st/2z0FCGP?tid=ss…
Guess this can only be officially approved by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee/ House Foreign Affairs Committee after the six-week congressional recess, which began on July 26.
However, US State Department can still officially approve the possible arms deal.

FWIW: The last sale of U.S. fighter jets to Taiwan took place in 1992, under the George H.W. Bush administration.
Read 7 tweets
11 Nov 18
Nov. 11 1918: The last Austro-Hungarian Emperor Charles I signs a proclamation in which he "relinquish(ed) every participation in the administration of the State" marking the end of the 600-year rule of the Habsburgs over #Austria. #TodayInHistory #ArmisticeDay100 #Armistice100
On 13 November, Charles IV issued a similar (Eckartsau) proclamation for #Hungary. In neither declaration did the emperor use the word 'abdication'. Indeed, he tried to reclaim the Hungarian throne twice in 1921. "I did not abdicate, and never will," he wrote to a confidant.
Altogether the losses of Austria-Hungary during #WW1 can be estimated at around 2 million (excluding direct civilian war deaths). #ArmisticeDay100 #ArmisticeDay
Read 7 tweets

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