PHE's COVID surveillance report covering 7th - 13th December landed today.
It's difficult reading.
It's just the second week since lockdown ended but case rates, hosp admissions, and now ICU admissions are all rising, with more deaths inevitable. 🧵
gov.uk/government/sta…
It's difficult reading.
It's just the second week since lockdown ended but case rates, hosp admissions, and now ICU admissions are all rising, with more deaths inevitable. 🧵
gov.uk/government/sta…
As was clear from the gov.uk daily data, case numbers rising, and doing so quite rapidly. 
This is in all age groups (with over case rates in those over 60yrs being a predictor of hospital admissions)
The rise in case rates is dominated by London, SE & EoE.
The case rates seen in October across N Eng now seem inevitable for much of the S.
Would love to think the rest of the country can avoid big increases in cases over the next couple of weeks but I'm not optimistic.
The case rates seen in October across N Eng now seem inevitable for much of the S.
Would love to think the rest of the country can avoid big increases in cases over the next couple of weeks but I'm not optimistic.
Important variation in case rates by ethnicity, but less of a differential by deprivation among younger age groups as case rates rise again.
However, ONS data out today continues to show that those who are more deprived as significantly more likely to die from COVID.
https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1339505109152247810?s=20
In terms of outbreaks/incidents being managed by PHE health protection teams, a small increase in primary schools
And also a rise in care homes after a drop the week before.
Plus the concerning increase in hospital incidents continues.
Hospital admissions are rising again - mainly in SE, London and EoE - and will continue to do so predictably as case rates among more vulnerable adults increase.
And as the gov.uk data shows, there are now more COVID patients in hospital than at the peak of the second wave.
This is not good news. NHS winter has barely started.
This is not good news. NHS winter has barely started.
ICU admissions is more of a mixed picture by region, but general trend is predictably now up again.
And while deaths are still falling following the second lockdown, they will sadly also soon start trending up again, but this time from a far higher baseline than before.
I know this is all gloomy, but it's just all rising so soon again after lockdown.
Christmas is such an important time but please don't make trips or social visits that can wait.
People are being vaccinated every day. There is cause for optimism, it just needs a bit more time.
Christmas is such an important time but please don't make trips or social visits that can wait.
People are being vaccinated every day. There is cause for optimism, it just needs a bit more time.
Also, there's still hardly any flu and people are also getting those vaccines as well.
That is good.
That is good.
PHE surveil rpt @felly500 @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUk @Jeanelleuk @fascinatorfun @profchrisham @petermbenglish @HPIAndyCowper @Davewwest @HSJEditor @KateAlvanley @IndependentSage @nedwards_1 @SamanthaJonesUK @ewanbirney @FurberA @Dr_D_Robertson
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