Thread by @ADMBriggs

Wk 27 Test and Trace - 26/11/20 to 02/12/20

Performance continues to get better as we come out of lockdown, but case numbers already starting to rise again across some parts of the country.

gov.uk/government/pub…

The number of people being tested has dropped a little, but the number of positive cases has fallen by 13%.

But we know from both PHE surveillance and gov.uk daily data, that T&T case numbers are going to plateau and start rising again next week.

https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1337158365026398215?s=20

As the number of tests being done falls, the turnaround time continues to improve.

Of the 91,578 cases passed to T&T, 86% were reached - same as recent weeks. This also means 12,849 cases weren't reached.

And there's now a definite downward trend in the percentage of cases providing details of contacts. This may reflect lockdown or indicate declining willingness to engage.

The percentage reached within 24hrs is 76%, which is good for T&T.

Of those not reached within 24 hrs, we don't know the additional impact of local contact tracing systems yet. But a change this week in how case status is recorded on the T&T computer system may mean this starts to get reported in a couple of weeks or so. 🤞

Now here's the big change:

Through a much more sensible approach to household contacts over the past two weeks (along with lockdown meaning a greater proportion of contacts are from the same household), THE PERCENTAGE OF CONTACTS REACHED BY T&T HAS GONE FROM 59% TWO WEEKS AGO TO 85%

This is ALL due to a single change of not requiring every contact in the same HH to be phoned individually. It's a better experience for HHs, and a much better reflection of whether contacts are actually reached or not.

(the % of non HH close contacts reached has stayed at 65%)

It has also massively changed the time taken to reach contacts. The % of contacts reached within 24 hrs from when a case was transferred to T&T has risen from just 29% in mid October, to 73%.

This is all really positive and shows how small operational changes can make a big difference.

However, it won't make any difference to whether people are isolating as required.

T&T can still improve, but more attention is now needed for supporting people to isolate.

Local authorities are offering a range of practical and social support to residents but that can only go so far.

Essentially, no-one should be worse off for having to isolate.

Winter is going to be really hard for case rates and NHS admissions.

It's great the T&T is doing better, but it'll mean nothing if people don't think they need to follow social distancing or are unable to isolate when reqd.

Clear comms and support seem more important than ever.

Wk 27 T&T ☝️ @felly500 @trishgreenhalgh @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUk @Jeanelleuk @fascinatorfun @profchrisham @petermbenglish @HPIAndyCowper @Davewwest @HSJEditor @KateAlvanley @IndependentSage @nedwards_1 @chrischirp @SamanthaJonesUK

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