Thread by @GeorginaEWright

Extending the transition period is a lovely idea - in theory. But in practice, it's a total minefield and not clear it can be done in time. Why? Thread.

1. Several ways to buy more time for talks:
(i) Extend transition period (TP) before July 2020: missed that deadline
(ii) Extend TP by amending withdrawal agreement (WA): legally v complicated for EU
(iii) Create a brand new TP: politically v complicated

2. Different beasts: transition period (TP) ≠ art 50 talks. EU uses a legal basis for every treaty it strikes. For withdrawal agreement (& TP), it used article 50. Problem is: art 50 designed for a member state *that is on its way out* - *not* one that has already left.

3. 30 June deadline: that's why the UK & EU included a provision in the withdrawal agreement to extend the transition period. Problem is: there was a deadline. That deadline (30 June) has been missed. WA also prevents joint committee from amending end date of transition period.

4. Changing end date of TP in WA is complicated for EU: EU wd need to find a new legal basis in EU treaty (not clear there is one). Also requires UK & EU to agree terms of extension (UK ££ contribution to EU budget, abiding by EU law). Too little, too late.

5. Creating a brand new TP is also complicated: EU cd use article 207 (& 217/218). UK wd probably need act of parliament. UK & EU wd need to agree terms (£ contribution to EU budget, following EU rules, etc). Negotiators wd almost certainly need to drop FTA talks to focus.

6. Deal vs no deal: time has always been true enemy of Brexit. It is still possible to reach a deal and provisionally apply it before end of yr. That seems - at this point in time - easier than trying to extend transition period. END.

7. You can find out more about the options (& political/legal complexities) outlined above in @instituteforgov paper I co-authored with @jameskkane & @HST_Etherington here: instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/i…