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Ryan Anderson Profile picture
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21 Dec, 3 tweets, 2 min read
Quick update on my end today. 1,471,144 votes in the runoff election so far.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
2 fun stats for you today.

71,713 people who voted by mail in the general election have voted early in-person for the runoff.

Only 34,348 people who voted early in-person in the general have voted by mail in the runoff.

That can def skew the trend of each voting method.
And also, D-leaning congressional districts had a mighty good Friday-through-Sunday voting period. Below is their turnout compared to early votes for the 2020 general.

georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php

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Ryan Anderson Profile picture
19 Dec
Ok, as promised I dug into the numbers a little more. Particularly around how people voted in the 2020 primary. There are better ways to estimate overall partisanship, but I've stuck with this for now.
First, I want to let folks revisit the breakdown of D and R primary voters who have voted so far, vs the breakdown through the first week of early voting in the general.

Dem "lead" is 154k vs 181k in the general on lower overall turnout. That's about D +16% vs D +17.4%.
This also lines up with what Nate Cohn has been posting about, which looks at this a lot more thoroughly than I think I am. Dems are doing well, but not necessarily as well as they were at this point in the general.

Read 8 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
18 Dec
Over 1,123,000 people have cast a vote in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Over 30,000 of them did not vote in the general election in November.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Let's start with some demographic breakdowns. The electorate so far is much more racially diverse than we'd expect at this point, but closer to our expectations from an age perspective.

As mentioned previously, young voters tend to vote later: georgiavotes.substack.com/p/1026-who-vot…
The current electorate is just under 55% white. If we include everyone with an approved, outstanding mail ballot that number drops below 54%.

Just as a comparison, the early voting electorate in the general was 56.6% white.
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
14 Dec
Welcome to the first day of early voting in Georgia's runoff election! The data is going to get a lot fuller and more interesting starting tomorrow, but today we can see where we ended up during the mail-only voting period.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Applications are up to 1.22M, within 7% of where we were for the 2020 general when in-person voting started even with much less time for people to get their applications in.
The racial breakdown for these applicants are much more non-white than what we saw in the general, when about 60% of early voters were white.

White: 53.0%
Black: 31.6%
Hispanic: 2.1%
Asian: 3.2%
Other/Unk: 10.6%
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
11 Dec
Hooo baby. 46,819 votes recorded yesterday gets us up to 200,995 total votes cast in the runoff elections so far.

And next week we get to start seeing what the early in-person numbers look like too.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Now, this is a dangerous game to play but I've started looking at some numbers based on the # of applications in so far, and the results from the 2020 general election in each county for mail votes.
First, these metrics were very different for President and the 2 Senate races.

Biden won the mail vote by 398,572 votes (65/34)
Ossoff won by 333,437 (62/36)
Combined D's in the special won by 336,740 (62/36)
Read 6 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
10 Dec
Yesterday we recorded 32,000 more applications and 42,500 more votes. Vote by mail applications are now within 9% of the general election's total at this point.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Over 3,300 of these people didn't vote in the general election. I don't know who you are or what you were doing, but ok then.

Three times as many people who DIDN'T VOTE (3,366) have already voted, compared to people who voted on election day (1,055) and have voted by mail.
15 counties now have more mail applications in than they recorded mail votes in the general.

The top one is Sumter County (70.3%/29.1% to Biden in mail voting, 52.0%/47.2% overall).
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
9 Nov
We're still waiting on more counties to start certifying their results in Georgia, but a couple more rounds of votes were reported over the weekend.

Fulton
Biden - 1,611 (71.7%)
Trump - 576 (25.6%)

Gwinnett
Biden - 280 (68.5%)
Trump - 123 (30.1%)

Calhoun
Biden - 1 (100.0%)
And there's the update! 10 more counties certified and a chunk more votes reported.

Gwinnett (certified)
Biden - 407 (58.2%)
Trump - 274 (39.2%)

Bibb
Biden - 226 (72.7%)
Trump - 77 (24.8%)

Everything Else
Biden - 81 (45.0%)
Trump - 96 (53.3%)
Little updates from another dozen counties, and we're up to 55 total counties certified (out of 159 total, for those of you not familiar with Georgia).

Results:
Biden - 138 (54.3%)
Trump - 112 (44.1%)

Margin: 10,620
Read 4 tweets

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