fly4dat Profile picture
22 Dec, 21 tweets, 14 min read
1/ Now that I’ve reached 4206.9 followers, I thought it’d be time for a *short* historical overview.

I’ve joined Twitter in October of 2018. I had a specific reason in mind regarding $TSLAQ, so I wanted to become part of the community.

$TSLA
2/ But I haven’t planned my presence for long. Hence my handle: I wanted something I couldn’t emotionally relate to. @fly4dat sounded like something even below neutral. Who likes flies anyway? Not even flies do in some cases.
3/ First, I was trying to add value by finding some strange stuff, of which, at that time, have been way more than now.

Lots of speculation about M3 ramp-up, SuX refresh (LOL), and the evergreen scams: FSD, the Semi, the Roadster.
4/ Leaf blowers, Teslaquila (yeah, Elon is sometimes late but always delivers! bah), who knows what else.

We've been speculating on real gross margins. That hasn't changed since.
5/ I’ve gained a few early followers. The first one was @Polixenes13, but veteran Q like @contrapositiv3, @coverdrive12, @clagasperoni, @o_rust, @contrarianshort, @eventdrivenmgr, @harfangcap, @twainsmustache, @hilinetrail, @pluginfud were among my first followers.
6/ I’ve laughed a lot at the jokes and puns of @ko_strad. @paul91701736 still hasn’t put me on the blocklist.

There are a couple of silent ones like @thebubblebubble, @antonwahlman, but hey, I have silent real life friends too.
7/ I’ve made some virtual friends too, starting with @deansheikh1, @AlexT18503601, @teslacharts, @montana_skeptic, @mtass7, @scidood . Among them, I’ve learned a LOT from the extremely knowledgeable people like @ortheraboot, @paul_m_huettner, @cppinvest, @boriquagato, @eriksdalen
8/ @almingtoncap, @4xrevenue, @bradmunchen, @jaberwock2, @jcoviedo6, @sascha_p, @davidmarchorn, @PlainSite and @kawasakiKR11, and some whose accounts are private so I won't name them here.
9/ We’ve lost way too many friends on the way. One of the most painful ones is @skabooshka, but there are a lot who have been suspended, got their accounts deleted. Many simply had enough and quit. No wonder, but I'm missing them.
10/ On the other side of the trade, I’ve had decent discussions with @smack_check, @greentheonly, @troyteslike, @ihors3, @mortenlund89, @fmossotto, @nasalahe, @vedaprime, @abledoc, @tilmanwinkler and @tslafanmtl. More bulls worth mentioning are @reflexfunds, @DKurac, @TaylorOgan.
11/ There are way too many good ppl out there to mention, so the above list is very much incomplete. I’ve left out a few because of privacy reasons, and others due to the lack of space on Twitter. Or due to the small brains flies have. Apologies.
12/ I feel I became an integral part of the Q community in 19Q1. During my visit to Miami, it has been my first sighting of an M3. Wow, what an underwhelming experience it was.
13/ I’ve read a lot about panel gaps, paint defects, frozen door handles, but reality was worse than my expectations. Pics with PedroERP:

14/ This happened at the same time as the M3 was about to be introduced in Europe. I gave delivery estimates, which were much lower than the typical bull estimate of 50-100k/Q but higher than the typical bear 8-10k estimate: .
15/ In retrospect, they haven’t delivered all the orders, had a bit of backlog for Q2, and I’m still very happy with that estimate. Had a few nice estimates (Europe and WW) since.
16/ There has been a lot of speculation about my nationality and place of residence. I'm still not ready to disclose it. But curious about your best guess (pls comment "other"!)
17/ What I can tell you is that I'm honored to be followed by one of the wealthiest ppl in my country. I salute him for standing up for his values.
18/ Fun thing is that I also have an IRL friend even often interacting with me who doesn't know who I am. I feel bad. I'll tell he/him/she/her later. He/him/she/her, just to make sure.
19/ Having over 4206.9 followers is a huge thing for a tiny European fly who struggles with his English. But flies are where shit is. And there is a lot of shit here, so I'll stay until it goes away.
20/ And with this, @brodieferguson, my second follow after @skabooshka just followed me back. These 2 guys have been the ones that I've read from a browser before I've regged my first ever Twitter account. Wow.
Okay. So I mustn't have made a typo at the very top of my list. Tagging @orthereaboot again. Sorry.

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More from @fly4dat

22 Dec
1/ ICCT came out with their October European analysis. Bottom line: Daimler, FCA/Tesla/Honda and VW don't look good, Ford-Volvo not too close while the others are close to the target.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ However, if you look close enough, October #'s are usually much closer to the targets (that vary by OEM! as their car sizes and other parameters vary too) than yearly averages. Based on that alone, Nov/Dec will help pretty much everone better than average reach targets.
3/ For example, look at Daimler: their share of electrified vehicles has doubled during the year.

Oct figures don't include models like Volvo XC40, Renault Twingo, Fiat 500e, VW ID.4 and others that will add to Nov-Dec data, while most others have a strong EOY push.
Read 7 tweets
1 Dec
1/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s have started to come in.

Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -50% YoY but will get somewhat less bad with more countries reporting).

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
2/ More #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s are in.

Again: Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -39% YoY).

Expect DE, PT, LU tomorrow, UK on Fri, monthly breakdowns and EE next week. We still don't have GR Oct.

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
3/ #Tesla 🇪🇺 Nov #'s now include DE and detailed CH

Again: Important: ships came late so Nov is totally irrelevant but for SuX (which stands at -33% YoY).

Expect LU and UK tomorrow, monthly breakdowns and EE next week. We still don't have GR Oct.

$TSLA $TSLAQ ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
1 Dec
1/ This is a serious topic worth digging into. I've been discussing with friends for a while what the escape plan could be?

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ Shareholders of other OEMs are shareholders there and not in Tesla for a reason. They wouldn't accept $TSLA shares without guarantees that they can get out safely. However, financial engineering has always been Tesla's strong suit, and there is too much at stake here.
3/ Others argue that $TSLA would fail at a DD. Well, there are always some utterly corrupt C-suites, not necessarily only Italians, if you know what I mean. Also, 2/ answers the DD question too.
Read 6 tweets
26 Nov
1/ 8 #Tesla ships have sailed to Europe🇪🇺 this quarter, and it's unlikely that there will be more.

With inventory, that means they will have ~30k M3's available for delivery in EU. Compares to 31.8k last Q4.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ But there is always some inventory left (logistics hiccups, rejects, even if everything gets sold). 2-3k seems to be the minimum now, so 27-28k is a theoretical maximum.

As we don't yet know December demand, I'll report back with my estimate later. Expect 24-28k.
3/ That 10-15% yearly M3 fall is after SuX drop of 30-35%. In a market where BEV sales ex-Tesla will have grown by 150% (2.5x).
Read 7 tweets
25 Nov
🚨🪄MAGIC🪄🚨!

The new #Tesla SR+ MIC with LFP battery needs 142Wh/km, while the old one needed 149Wh/km.

MIC weighs 1,874kg, US M3 SR+ weighed 1,720kg.

What a drag coefficient reduction a chrome delete does! Oh, wait, no chrome delete to be seen.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
And it's still a 4-seater at the very best.

h/t to my beautiful assistant who asked to remain anonymous.
Read 4 tweets
14 Nov
1/ 🇪🇺 weekend update.

TL;DR: #Tesla will likely lag 19Q4 by a wide margin.

There have been 8 ships to Europe for ~28.2k in 19Q4 and 6.2k in opening inventory, so $TSLA could deliver a record 31.8k M3's.

This year they are at 6 ships with a 7th being loaded.

$TSLA $TSLAQ
2/ There is time for 3 more ships, but they need 1 (maybe 2) more to APAC.

The China window of opportunity has pretty much closed, no ship from Shanghai could reach Europe in time.

So 9 ships tops, unless Tesla a) ships from the East or b) sends cars from Shanghai by train.
3/ Although it's possible that they ship again from the East, I find it unlikely this time. They would have had plenty of time to ship from SFO, and shipping from the East is costlier and involves more risk.

Similarly, shipping from China by train is quick but pricey (and new).
Read 7 tweets

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