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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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23 Dec, 6 tweets, 3 min read
BIOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE B.1.1.7 🇬🇧 variant #SARSCoV2:

Read these 4 key circled sentences from @CovidGenomicsUK on why the mutations are worrisome.

Experts don’t think it will strongly affect vaccines, but some say maybe slightly.

See 🧵 for details. cogconsortium.uk/wp-content/upl…
2) This table also explains how much the variant B.1.1.7 has been seen recently. Notice how much of the total within last 28 days.
3) brand new details on the viral load.
4) Details on mutation in master thread.
5) Dr Bedford doesn’t think it’ll significantly reduce vaccine efficacy in the 2021 rollout. But it’s possible over time on longer time horizons if we don’t defeat it quickly.
6) Though Dr Bedford says single mutations will typically have small impact on a vaccine that induced multiple immune responses, he doesn’t exclude an effect on vaccine if there is a “large antigenic change” (binding of virus changes a lot). We will know with more studies soon.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Dec
BREAKING—US CDC will require negative coronavirus test for all airline passengers from 🇬🇧 starting Dec 28th— test must be within 3 days of flight. Either PCR or rapid tests acceptable. Pax must submit results to airlines. #COVID19 washingtonpost.com/local/traffica…
2) “British officials have been alarmed at the swift spread of the new variant and are also concerned about an even faster-spreading mutation identified in South Africa. Researchers say there is no evidence either variant is more deadly, & optimistic existing vaccines will work.
3) “It is also possible the vaccines could quickly be updated if changes are needed, they said.
“Viruses constantly change through mutation, and preliminary analysis in the UK suggests that this new variant may be up to 70% more transmissible than previous,” the CDC said.
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Dec
⚠️Fecal aerosols... 9 infections in 3 families due to vertically shared toilet drainage pipes + aerosols from pipes.

To even prove it, tracer gas was released into drainage system of one unit & shown to come out of the other.

➡️Fecal airborne transmission is real. #COVID19
2) Potential scenario is infection through drainage system. U-traps typically act as water seals in each bathroom. But they can dry out if unused allowing aerosols from one unit to travel to another. Image
3) Thus is an amazingly detailed epidemiological study. They ruled out all other forms of transmission because the infected families had no other contact in their high rise. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… Image
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
25 Dec
2x HORRENDOUS tragedies—

—Nurse silenced by @YumaRegional hospital for speaking out about safety for security guards w/out adequate PPE

—Prison #COVID19 outbreak that has infected hundreds in Yuma, AZ prison—even killed the prison warden, and endangered prison staff & inmates.
2) The @YumaRegional hospital administration is so terrible and horrendous that key 🏥 are now resigning at high rates. Image
3) A huge wave of nurses have now resigned from @YumaRegional hospital. The security guards who weren’t given adequate PPEs also unable to speak up. Image
Read 7 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
24 Dec
YOU CAN’T FIND MUTATIONS ==> IF YOU DON’T GENETIC 🧬 SEQUENCE.

Australia 🇦🇺 & New Zealand 🇳🇿 is leading the world of ~half of all viruses in their countries sequenced.

UK 🇬🇧 leads in total #SARSCoV2 samples sequenced.

USA 🇺🇸 ranks—#43 in % 🧬 sequenced. So #winning, not.🧵 Image
2) “Given the small fraction of U.S. infections that have been sequenced, the variant could already be in the United States without having been detected,” the CDC wrote on its website.
3) Remember the old saying, “No testing, no pandemic”?

📌Same goes for virus mutations. “No sequencing, no new mutated variants”

➡️We can’t be ostrich in the sand about this. To stop pandemic, we have to stay ahead of it—know when it’s changing or becoming more contagious. Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
24 Dec
On the brink—

📌Over 2 in 5 U.S. hospitals with intensive care units have reached occupancy levels of >=85%.

📌Contrast with early Oct, just 1 in 4 that full. #COVID19

📌The 85% occupancy’ is the threshold to trigger regional stay-at-home orders.
nytimes.com/interactive/20… Image
2) “When patients get really sick with Covid, they’re in the hospital for weeks,” said Dr. Arghavan Salles, a physician who has worked in I.C.U.s in New York and Arizona over the course of the pandemic. Image
3) “When patients get really sick with Covid, they’re in the hospital for weeks,” said Dr. @arghavan_salles, a physician who has worked in I.C.U.s in New York and Arizona over the course of the pandemic. Image
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
23 Dec
💡New—VIRAL LOAD OF UK🇬🇧 b.1.1.7 VARIANT:

➡️New study by @OxfordViromics group indeed finds **higher viral load** for new variant w/ 501 mutation & 69-70 deletion.

📌How much higher? “Inferred viral loads were *3-fold higher* in people w/ new variant”.🧵
coronavirus-fraser-group.org/files/files/up…
2) Outside Greater London, the variant has higher viral loads. Within Greater London, the new variant does not have significantly higher viral loads. But this could be due to demographics, such as a faster variant growth rate in particular age-groups.
3) So is it higher or not? Or is it some London / non-London effect? ➡️ it’s really higher.

➡️In a multivariable model (adjusting mutually), what won was the B.1.1.7 variant’s 501Y mutation as key—**higher viral load**

❌London/other region interaction effect not significant.
Read 4 tweets

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