New day, new GV numbers. We've officially cracked 2 million early voters now, with 2,062,902 votes cast. The daily pace continues to slow a bit, with IP voting down to just 1% ahead of 2020 general pace.
I think the big question now is where does early voting come in, and how does that compare to the general. With a few more days of early in-person voting + ~500k mail applications outstanding It seems like 3 million is likely and 3.5 million isn't.
Also, the most observant of you may notice that we have fewer folks in the "unknown" and "other" classifications now. That's because I got a new file yesterday and so we have demographic data on about 30,000 more voters.
The reason for the drop in 65+ stems from the default birthdate being 1900 if the state didn't have it for some reason. As they've been able to update people's registration from things like license renewals, change of address, etc, these occurrences start to clean themselves up.
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We're up to 1,884,692 votes cast in the Georgia runoffs. After tonight's update we'll probably hit 50% of the early vote turnout for the 2020 general, and then it's the holidays and numbers will slow significantly.
Mail votes increased by 58,111 since yesterday, bringing the total mail vote within 19% of the general's at this point.
In-person votes grew up 147,957 and remain about 3% ahead of pace. Days are coming in below 2020 general pace regularly basis now, so expect this to drop.
GA-07 has jumped ahead of GA-09 now in "early turnout compared to early turnout for the general"
In fact, the bottom 4 congressional districts for turnout so far are all folks who signed on to the Texas brief, and MTG.
In-person voting was 154,628 yesterday, marking the 5th straight day of in-person voting lower than during the general. Given that we'll have effectively 0 votes from Thursday-Sunday this week it'll be telling to see where today and tomorrow end up.
While a lot of numbers are slightly down, the percentage of voters who did not vote in the general election is actually climbing. It's up to 2.9% now, representing 49,118 total voters.
Ok, as promised I dug into the numbers a little more. Particularly around how people voted in the 2020 primary. There are better ways to estimate overall partisanship, but I've stuck with this for now.
First, I want to let folks revisit the breakdown of D and R primary voters who have voted so far, vs the breakdown through the first week of early voting in the general.
Dem "lead" is 154k vs 181k in the general on lower overall turnout. That's about D +16% vs D +17.4%.
This also lines up with what Nate Cohn has been posting about, which looks at this a lot more thoroughly than I think I am. Dems are doing well, but not necessarily as well as they were at this point in the general.
Over 1,123,000 people have cast a vote in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Over 30,000 of them did not vote in the general election in November.
Let's start with some demographic breakdowns. The electorate so far is much more racially diverse than we'd expect at this point, but closer to our expectations from an age perspective.
Welcome to the first day of early voting in Georgia's runoff election! The data is going to get a lot fuller and more interesting starting tomorrow, but today we can see where we ended up during the mail-only voting period.
Applications are up to 1.22M, within 7% of where we were for the 2020 general when in-person voting started even with much less time for people to get their applications in.
The racial breakdown for these applicants are much more non-white than what we saw in the general, when about 60% of early voters were white.
Now, this is a dangerous game to play but I've started looking at some numbers based on the # of applications in so far, and the results from the 2020 general election in each county for mail votes.
First, these metrics were very different for President and the 2 Senate races.
Biden won the mail vote by 398,572 votes (65/34)
Ossoff won by 333,437 (62/36)
Combined D's in the special won by 336,740 (62/36)