Since I spent the time pulling it together, thought I'd share a rough projection of #Redistricting2021 with #ElectionTwitter (notwithstanding some uncertainty). 1/34
This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates. bleedingheartland.com/2020/12/23/iow… @DrRyanPhd
This uses the Census Bureau's December apportionment estimates. bleedingheartland.com/2020/12/23/iow… @DrRyanPhd
Getting the 1-seat states out of the way: 2/34
• AK-DE-ND-RI-SD-VT-WY: 4R-3D
Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
• AK-DE-ND-RI-SD-VT-WY: 4R-3D
Moving on to GOP controlled states:
• ID & WV are uniformly red: 2 R each
• No reason to expect any changes in MS: 3R-1D
• Or AL: 6R-1D
• AR: 4R (they can probably make the 2nd uncompetitive)
FL: 17R-12D 3/34
State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
State redistricting laws + 2 new seats makes me imagine they’ll leave existing D seats alone, & add a new one in South FL. Then they can safely add an R seat around Orlando (& maybe try to flip another given 2020 Latino movement), while shoring up FL-26 & 27.
GA: 9R-5D 4/34
Republicans are likely to pack the 6th and 7th into one new safe D seat. But I’m a little more skeptical they’ll carve up the AA-influenced 2nd (to avoid legal risks).
Republicans are likely to pack the 6th and 7th into one new safe D seat. But I’m a little more skeptical they’ll carve up the AA-influenced 2nd (to avoid legal risks).
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1255896386815627268
IN: 8R-1D 5/34
They’ll definitely reinforce the 5th by packing Dem suburbs into the 7th. Obama’s performance in IN likely spooked them in 2011, but can’t see why they won’t try to crack IN-01 now.
They’ll definitely reinforce the 5th by packing Dem suburbs into the 7th. Obama’s performance in IN likely spooked them in 2011, but can’t see why they won’t try to crack IN-01 now.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334533526641897478
MO: 6R-2D 6/34
GOP is definitely cracking the insecure MO-02. But they didn’t crack the AA-influenced MO-05 last time, I presume because of legal risks. However, MO got redder so they could push further.
GOP is definitely cracking the insecure MO-02. But they didn’t crack the AA-influenced MO-05 last time, I presume because of legal risks. However, MO got redder so they could push further.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334726419855839239
NE: 3R 7/34
Rs will shore up NE-02, but it’ll still be competitive, both because they like the attention paid to state priorities from making it a semi-competitive Presidential battleground, and because of trends – it swung more toward Ds than any other Electoral College votes.
Rs will shore up NE-02, but it’ll still be competitive, both because they like the attention paid to state priorities from making it a semi-competitive Presidential battleground, and because of trends – it swung more toward Ds than any other Electoral College votes.
NH: 1R-1D 8/34
Given their poor performance under 2 competitive seats (1 out of 10 this decade aka NH-01 2014), easy to imagine they’d go for a surefire safe seat.
Given their poor performance under 2 competitive seats (1 out of 10 this decade aka NH-01 2014), easy to imagine they’d go for a surefire safe seat.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1336457436425818112
NC: 9R-5D 9/34
NC GOP seem sure to try & claim NC’s new seat, while leaving the existing court-mandated 5 D-seats
NC GOP seem sure to try & claim NC’s new seat, while leaving the existing court-mandated 5 D-seats
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253732377072984066However, I like the odds of the Dem state SCOTUS – even reduced to 4D-3R – intervening to produce a fair 8R-6D map.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253744391941959680
OH: 13R-2D 10/34
Can’t see why GOP won't capitalize on favorable geography+trends. It'll be challenged in court.
They might protect OH-13 to try to keep Ryan from running statewide. Otherwise, Dems best hope is suburban trends dummymandering a few seats.
Can’t see why GOP won't capitalize on favorable geography+trends. It'll be challenged in court.
They might protect OH-13 to try to keep Ryan from running statewide. Otherwise, Dems best hope is suburban trends dummymandering a few seats.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1330744514689069056
OK: 5R 11/34
Oklahoma City is probably getting carved up.
SC: 6R-1D
Don’t know how, but GOP will certainly do something to crack SC-01. Though trends could still make it interesting by the end of the decade.
Oklahoma City is probably getting carved up.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253461045303271425
SC: 6R-1D
Don’t know how, but GOP will certainly do something to crack SC-01. Though trends could still make it interesting by the end of the decade.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1255931507216187397
TN: 8R-1D 12/34
Republicans left TN-05 alone out of fear of 2010’s rural Democrats bouncing back. Hard to see the same qualms next year.
TX: 26R-13D
Huge blow for Dems not to win the state House. This seems quite likely.
Republicans left TN-05 alone out of fear of 2010’s rural Democrats bouncing back. Hard to see the same qualms next year.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253454491342516225
TX: 26R-13D
Huge blow for Dems not to win the state House. This seems quite likely.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1339243243331006464
UT: 4R 13/34
With McAdams losing, Republicans could easily shore up the existing gerrymander.
Dem's best shot is for the commission to recommend a compact map (with Salt Lake City seat) that GOP tweaks to their preferences.
With McAdams losing, Republicans could easily shore up the existing gerrymander.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1255969652360056832
Dem's best shot is for the commission to recommend a compact map (with Salt Lake City seat) that GOP tweaks to their preferences.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1255962949170192384
And now Dem controlled: 14/34
No reason to expect big changes; just tweaks to shore up incumbents:
• CT: 5D
• MA: 9D
IL: 14D-3R
They've learnt their lesson (dummymandered IL-12 & 13 based on Obama's performance), plus have suburban gains to shore up.
No reason to expect big changes; just tweaks to shore up incumbents:
• CT: 5D
• MA: 9D
IL: 14D-3R
They've learnt their lesson (dummymandered IL-12 & 13 based on Obama's performance), plus have suburban gains to shore up.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1340038148194258957
MD: 8D-1R 15/34
They didn’t draw a 9D last time. However, the Dem supermajority can override Hogan, & Republican's ruthlessness (e.g. WI, NC, OH) might prompt them to go for it this time.
They didn’t draw a 9D last time. However, the Dem supermajority can override Hogan, & Republican's ruthlessness (e.g. WI, NC, OH) might prompt them to go for it this time.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1255918483919028226
NM: 3D 16/34
Hard to imagine that Dems won’t try to get XTS back in NM-02, now that they have control this time round.
Though I imagine demographics will push for 2 Hispanic & 1 high-Native American district.
Hard to imagine that Dems won’t try to get XTS back in NM-02, now that they have control this time round.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1330188548067221507
Though I imagine demographics will push for 2 Hispanic & 1 high-Native American district.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253449645709295626
NV: 3D-1R 17/34
They can shore up their vulnerable incumbents by packing rural NV-02.
OR: 5D-1R
It’ll be shocking malpractice if Dems don’t try for 5 seats.
They can shore up their vulnerable incumbents by packing rural NV-02.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1163901390848024576
OR: 5D-1R
It’ll be shocking malpractice if Dems don’t try for 5 seats.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1163909479563288576
NY: 21D-4R 18/34
With Dems finally in full control (sans IDC), I expect they'll push to counterbalance R-gerrymanders. I drew a 23D-3R map (before NY losy a 2nd seat). So they *should* be able to go for at least 21 (without stretching the 1st or 4th).
With Dems finally in full control (sans IDC), I expect they'll push to counterbalance R-gerrymanders. I drew a 23D-3R map (before NY losy a 2nd seat). So they *should* be able to go for at least 21 (without stretching the 1st or 4th).
https://twitter.com/StephenBeban/status/1318045482757713920/
And finally split control / independent commissions: 19/34
AZ (Commission): 6D-4R
Seems realistic (with probably 4 competitive seats, just like there were 3 toss-ups in 2012 – the AZ redistricting commission has to maximize competitiveness).
AZ (Commission): 6D-4R
Seems realistic (with probably 4 competitive seats, just like there were 3 toss-ups in 2012 – the AZ redistricting commission has to maximize competitiveness).
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1164207448120426503
HI (Commission): 2D 20/34
IA (Commission): 3R-1D
Axle seems in good position with Des Moines trending blue.
CO (Commission): maybe 5D-3R
Given trends, but 2 of those will be marginal.
IA (Commission): 3R-1D
Axle seems in good position with Des Moines trending blue.
CO (Commission): maybe 5D-3R
Given trends, but 2 of those will be marginal.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253399658094886913
KS: 3R-1D 21/34
GOP will probably compromise with Kelly by packing KS-03, to prevent a dummymander (by spreading blue suburbs across 2nd & 3rd).
LA: 4R-2D
Similarly, JBE probably gets a 2nd Dem district.
GOP will probably compromise with Kelly by packing KS-03, to prevent a dummymander (by spreading blue suburbs across 2nd & 3rd).
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253405747964248067
LA: 4R-2D
Similarly, JBE probably gets a 2nd Dem district.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253423922726354952
KY: 5R-1D 22/34
With Beshear in office, Republicans may settle for incumbent protection. Though if Republicans kept everyone on board, they could override a Beshear veto for a 6R seat.
With Beshear in office, Republicans may settle for incumbent protection. Though if Republicans kept everyone on board, they could override a Beshear veto for a 6R seat.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253413569451839491
MI (Commission): 7D-6R 23/34
New criteria require partisan fairness, so should be better for Dems than current R-gerrymander, but likely 4~ competitive seats given crosscurrent trends.
New criteria require partisan fairness, so should be better for Dems than current R-gerrymander, but likely 4~ competitive seats given crosscurrent trends.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1164273224445767680
MN: 4D-3R 24/34
If GOP Senate & Walz don’t agree on an incumbent protection map, easy to see a court combing MN-07 & 8, which are losing pop, while keeping the 2nd a Dem-incumbent toss-up.
If GOP Senate & Walz don’t agree on an incumbent protection map, easy to see a court combing MN-07 & 8, which are losing pop, while keeping the 2nd a Dem-incumbent toss-up.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1341607816784719872
ME: 2D 25/34
Assuming Golden keeps hold of ME-02. It's possible Mills leaves it to courts, if that seems more likely to improve ME-02 than GOP legislature.
MT (Commission): 2R
Though the Western 1st will be competitive in waves
Assuming Golden keeps hold of ME-02. It's possible Mills leaves it to courts, if that seems more likely to improve ME-02 than GOP legislature.
MT (Commission): 2R
Though the Western 1st will be competitive in waves
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1253445001390030848
NJ (Commission): 10D-2R 26/34
The commissioner went with the R's gerrymander in 2011, which backfired on them. With suburban trends, Democrats are even more efficiently distributed Ds, so hard to imagine their incumbents will be in a markedly worse/better position than now.
The commissioner went with the R's gerrymander in 2011, which backfired on them. With suburban trends, Democrats are even more efficiently distributed Ds, so hard to imagine their incumbents will be in a markedly worse/better position than now.
PA: 9D-9R 27/34
Unless they agree on incumbent-protection; I’d bank on a deadlock between Wolf & the R-legislature, with the PA SCOTUS drawing another fair map. Wouldn’t be surprised if Dems & Rs swapped PA-08 & PA-01 in 2022
Unless they agree on incumbent-protection; I’d bank on a deadlock between Wolf & the R-legislature, with the PA SCOTUS drawing another fair map. Wouldn’t be surprised if Dems & Rs swapped PA-08 & PA-01 in 2022
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1335690475433562112
WI: 5R-3D 28/34
Even if Evers & the legislature gridlock, GOP control the state SCOTUS, & geography is very R-favorable. That being said, I can see the 1st and/or 3rd being made more favorable for Democrats, but both still a challenge (sans Kind's incumbency).
Even if Evers & the legislature gridlock, GOP control the state SCOTUS, & geography is very R-favorable. That being said, I can see the 1st and/or 3rd being made more favorable for Democrats, but both still a challenge (sans Kind's incumbency).
WA (Commission): 7D-3R 29/34
Easy to see the existing map consolidated. WA-06 & WA-08 will be the ones to watch. (WA-03's geography helps Herrera Beutler).
VA (Commission): 7D-4R
With 2 South VA AA distrcts, likely that 2nd & 7th stay competitive.
Easy to see the existing map consolidated. WA-06 & WA-08 will be the ones to watch. (WA-03's geography helps Herrera Beutler).
VA (Commission): 7D-4R
With 2 South VA AA distrcts, likely that 2nd & 7th stay competitive.
https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1258421756295106560
CA (Commission): 45D-7R 30/34
While a commission; Dems have been good at appealing to the criteria, which emphasize communities of interest, & lack a partisan fairness criteria. So they may well be able to target the 4 Biden-Republican districts in CA. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…
While a commission; Dems have been good at appealing to the criteria, which emphasize communities of interest, & lack a partisan fairness criteria. So they may well be able to target the 4 Biden-Republican districts in CA. cookpolitical.com/analysis/natio…
This breaks out to 225D-210R, but this likely lowballs Rs for 2022 – both because there is more downside risk for Dems in above estimates (e.g. FL, MO, AZ, NJ, CA), & relies on some vulnerable incumbents in R-leaning seats (e.g. IL, ME, PA, NJ, VA). 31/34
States finish Aug 2021-Mar 2022. 32/34 @nathanlgonzales insideelections.com/news/article/w…
Follow: @JMilesColeman + @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball + @kkondik, @Redistrict, @OryxMaps.
+@ForecasterEnten (CNN), @Nate_Cohn (NYT), @FiveThirtyEight, @DKElections, @CookPolitical, @Elections_Daily.
Follow: @JMilesColeman + @LarrySabato's Crystal Ball + @kkondik, @Redistrict, @OryxMaps.
+@ForecasterEnten (CNN), @Nate_Cohn (NYT), @FiveThirtyEight, @DKElections, @CookPolitical, @Elections_Daily.
This #Redistricting2021 projection shows the #ArtoftheGerrymander problem from another angle. 33/34 #ElectionTwitter
Commissions beat partisan control, but need partisan fairness criteria (mandating “efficiency gap” metrics by drawers). @PoliticsWolf dailykos.com/stories/2017/5…
Commissions beat partisan control, but need partisan fairness criteria (mandating “efficiency gap” metrics by drawers). @PoliticsWolf dailykos.com/stories/2017/5…
But even well-designed commission (with partisan fairness requirements) can't deal with changes within given lines over a decade. 34/34
Only multi-member districts can truly fix it. @RepDonBeyer’s #FairRepAct ensures approximate proportionality. @fairvote
Only multi-member districts can truly fix it. @RepDonBeyer’s #FairRepAct ensures approximate proportionality. @fairvote
https://twitter.com/StephenBeban/status/1323150089833963524
@threadreaderapp unroll
This is probably a better example for GA:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331644875637465091
Sorry, I said 8D-1R, when I should have said 7D-1R.
But here is another example of an 8D-0R map:
But here is another example of an 8D-0R map:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334963050110181377
Another example of 5D-3R CO:
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1334561594672631815
Dave shows a potential 4R KS gerrymander
But I think the 3R-1D is more likely, both for dummymander/incumbent protection concerns, but also KS GOP's moderate wing may withhold the numbers for a veto override.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1335991167238987776
But I think the 3R-1D is more likely, both for dummymander/incumbent protection concerns, but also KS GOP's moderate wing may withhold the numbers for a veto override.
Another version of the 7D-4R VA map
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1330616976427921413
I seem to have underestimated how much Dems can be packed into existing South FL. Dave shows how Rs could get both new seats for 18R-11D map. I find it less likely that they'll risk legal jeopardy by pushing further than that.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1330587605017255939
I miscounted FL and MD (tired). So more like 223D-212R. So things mostly balance out (albeit with unfair gerrymanders on both sides). Median seat likely will still lean-R.
Dem majority will be highly susceptible to a 2022 R-wave (midterm penalty). centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Dem majority will be highly susceptible to a 2022 R-wave (midterm penalty). centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
P.S. For more details on the current state of control over redistricting, see: @PoliticsWolf dailykos.com/stories/1992656
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