Welcome to the #ArtOfTheGerrymander! 1/43

A Dem-map a day to explore:
* state political geography &
* unfairness of single-winner districts
@davesredist +2020 projections #ElectionTwitter

@JMilesColeman @mikemathieu @PoliticsWolf @DKElections @Redistrict
dailykos.com/stories/2019/1…
2/43 Our running total starts: 5D-8R (skipping AK, DE, ND, SD, RI, VT, WY, HI, ID, WV).

NB: I try to maintain communities of interest & relatively compact maps; but compromise for D-maximization (may not comply with local rules). And I apply VRA as >50% primary (not total) pop.
3/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Utah

First off are some red states with competitive suburban seats e.g. Salt Lake City. I'd rate UT-04 as competitive by default, but would lean D with @RepBenMcAdams' incumbency. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 5D-11R-1? davesredistricting.org/join/7d2588ec-… ImageImageImageImage
4/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Nebraska

Combining Omaha and Lincoln creates a blue-trending district. But not yet safe outside of a wave, so would default it to toss-up (in a neutral environment). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 5D-13R-2? davesredistricting.org/join/68a3a69b-… ImageImageImageImage
5/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Kansas

It is a stretch – but was so astonished that you can get 2 competitive districts out of KS that I had to go with it (Kansas City to Topeka, & K.C. to Wichita via Junction City). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 5D-15R-4? davesredistricting.org/join/834cf29d-… ImageImageImageImage
6/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Missouri

MO-03 would have been competitive a decade ago (like the old MO-03 before it was eliminated). But St Louis’ suburbs can definitely still support two solid Dem seats. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 8D-20R-4? davesredistricting.org/join/a8f63d3b-… ImageImageImageImage
7/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Indiana

It’ll be very interesting to see whether the trends in Fort Wayne and the Indianapolis suburbs are enough to convert IN-03 and IN-07 into Democratic-leaning seats. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 10D-25R-6? davesredistricting.org/join/159b53b4-… ImageImageImageImage
8/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Kentucky

Clinton lost KY-04 by 8.6% but it’s a winnable toss-up thanks to Cincinnati's blue-trend. Not only did Beshear win (57.6-40.5%), so did Stumbo (2019 AG) by 90 votes (50-50%)! #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 11D-29R-7? davesredistricting.org/join/be3f3c35-… ImageImageImageImage
9/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Tennessee

Moving South, some fascinatingly polarized geography. Ds can squeeze two close seats out of West TN; & Trump lost ground in the 3rd/Chattanooga-Knoxville & 4th/Murfreesboro. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 12D-35R-9? davesredistricting.org/join/ffcfcecb-… ImageImageImageImage
10/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #SouthCarolina

Charleston should push the 1st out of competitive; so realistically @RepCunningham would only be vulnerable in a primary. A fairly clean map; solid 4R-3D delegation. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 14D-39R-10? davesredistricting.org/join/d44d82ef-… ImageImageImageImage
11/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Alabama

Another gerrymander that just gets Ds a proportional result. My only surprise was that both Dem districts can get over 50% African-American without getting too egregious. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 16D-43R-10? davesredistricting.org/join/14944a29-… ImageImageImageImage
12/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Mississippi

One rural (the Delta), one suburban (Jackson-Hattiesburg-Meridian), both >50% black, and relative clean lines. MS’s inelasticity makes their margins pretty secure. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 18D-45R-10? davesredistricting.org/join/66cb82cc-… ImageImageImageImage
13/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Louisiana

Amazingly, it is possible to get 3 fairly coherent Dem districts: New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and the Bayou (aka Mississippi and Red Rivers district). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 20D-48R-11? davesredistricting.org/join/06655da4-… ImageImageImageImage
14/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Arkansas

The last of our Mississippi River African-American districts. Promising Democratic trends in Conway (Faulkner County) should counter rural loses to the Republicans. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 21D-51R-11? davesredistricting.org/join/9995215a-… ImageImageImageImage
15/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Oklahoma

Heading West, @RepKendraHorn’s seat would become fairly safe. Edmondson (18 Gov) won it 57.4-38.4%; also came close in the 1st (48.2-48.8%) but Tulsa isn’t as large as OKC. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 21D-55R-12? davesredistricting.org/join/075a7793-… ImageImageImageImage
16/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #NewMexico

Much easier for @RepTorresSmall to defend this 22.8% Native American NM-02 district.
Would have to see where Pres third party vote goes before confident NM-03 is safe. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 22D-55R-14? davesredistricting.org/join/b378ae6c-… ImageImageImageImage
17/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Colorado

CO-03 is the only toss-up, enabled by two very different R vote sinks: ‘Millennium Falcon’ CO-05 (suburban Colorado Springs) & CO-04 (rural Western Slope & Eastern Plains). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 27D-57R-15? davesredistricting.org/join/0efca1bd-… ImageImageImageImage
18/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Nevada

@RepHorsford’s NV-04 gets shored up; and @RepSusieLee’s NV-03 stays competitive, but now leans slightly to the left rather than R+2 – a very good bellwether of the state. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 29D-58R-16? davesredistricting.org/join/2cc78bab-… ImageImageImageImage
19/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #California

Only 4 R seats (far inland)! All 11 swing districts voted Clinton & are trending blue (San Joaquin Valley/10, 21, & Southern California/25, 36, 39, 41-42, 45, 47-48, 50). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 66D-62R-27? davesredistricting.org/join/bf0cac45-… ImageImageImageImage
20/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Massachusetts

From one coastal Democratic bastion to another; this map shores up the 9th district – the only seat currently in any conceivable danger. But not under these lines. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 75D-62R-27? davesredistricting.org/join/f047245b-… ImageImageImageImage
21/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Connecticut

Sticking with the Northeast; Connecticut’s 2nd and 5th are reinforced, while ending the 1st’s fishhook tendrils (Always nice when your map is safer AND more compact). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 80D-62R-27? davesredistricting.org/join/6a4fc146-… ImageImageImageImage
22/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #NewHampshire

I figured I’d try to make both districts match the statewide partisanship as closely as possible. A little bit cleaner than the current map; both seats still toss-ups. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 80D-62R-29? davesredistricting.org/join/92d35792-… ImageImageImageImage
23/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Maine

I applied the same logic in Maine: each district got a share of R-trending rural and D-trending suburbs, which should cancel out and keep them both balanced. Cleaner too, imo. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 80D-62R-31? davesredistricting.org/join/a0ec3361-… ImageImageImageImage
24/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Montana

Rounding off the 2-CDs club, our new entrant (replacing RI). MT's western 1st is a toss-up; ironically, without containing 1st & 3rd biggest cities (Billings & Great Falls). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 80D-63R-32? davesredistricting.org/join/7ba78752-… ImageImageImageImage
25/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Oregon

Remaining Northwest, the Portland suburbs can fit another Dem district, while strengthening both @RepSchrader’s OR-05, & @RepPeterDeFazio’s OR-04 (though still competitive). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 84D-64R-33? davesredistricting.org/join/923efb15-… ImageImageImageImage
26/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Washington

Easy enough to get 7 Dem seats; limited options to cleanly improve WA-03. Managed to shave off a few points with Yakima, but Herrera Beutler is still a strong incumbent. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 91D-66R-34? davesredistricting.org/join/6018d572-… ImageImageImageImage
27/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Illinois

Continuing with states dominated by a major city: Chicago & the collar counties can support 12 seats. The 13th & @RepCheri’s 17th were trickier, but got them Dem-leaning. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 103D-69R-36? davesredistricting.org/join/f6b79a62-… ImageImageImageImage
28/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #NewYork

And of course NYC. 3 Republican vote sinks upstate; the rest of the districts lean Democratic (albeit 3 toss-up seats only narrowly so). Plus my NYC 10th & 12th are tidier. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 123D-72R-39? davesredistricting.org/join/8d354d68-… ImageImageImageImage
29/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #NewJersey

Following the Mid-Atlantic coast; NJ is one of my prettiest gerrymanders. And the only swing district (NJ-11) is trending Democratic. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 133D-73R-40? davesredistricting.org/join/4184f962-… ImageImageImageImage
30/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Maryland

Good to discover that Maryland Dems can get a map that both delivers even more Democratic seats, yet is much more compact than the current spaghetti junction of districts. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 141D-73R-40? davesredistricting.org/join/09e1f627-… ImageImageImageImage
31/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Pennsylvania

Transitioning to the Midwest; felt bad cracking Bucks (worth it). Sacrificing Wilkes-Barre + dividing Pittsburgh (rather than stretch to Erie) avoids dummymanders. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 149D-80R-42? davesredistricting.org/join/f38a763c-… ImageImageImageImage
32/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Wisconsin

Reversing the current 5R-3D delegation requires splitting Dane (Madison), joining the BOW counties (Green Bay-Appleton-Oshkosh), & relying on water contiguity (WI-08). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 153D-83R-43? davesredistricting.org/join/b4e7f54a-… ImageImageImageImage
33/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Iowa

I bit the bullet and settled for 2 D-leaning seats. Trying to push the 1st from lean-R to true toss-up just leaves the 2nd and 3rd vulnerable to more erosion. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 153D-85R-45? davesredistricting.org/join/d826943f-… ImageImageImageImage
34/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Michigan

This 7D-4R-2? map is a very satisfying reversal. NB: I’d expect African-Americans would make up a majority in the Democratic primaries for both MI-09 and MI-13. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 160D-89R-47? davesredistricting.org/join/74529ec5-… ImageImageImageImage
35/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Minnesota

I focused on safeguarding 5 seats with the Twin Cities; but @collinpeterson's MN-07 also wound up bluer. Always impressed how Obama did in rural Midwest, in retrospect. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 165D-91R-47? davesredistricting.org/join/7edcd08f-… ImageImageImageImage
36/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Ohio

OH-03 & OH-10 restored to their previous (2002-10) positions: Dayton & Cleveland, respectively. The former is the only innate toss-up, but Mike Turner seems to defy gravity. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 173D-97R-48? davesredistricting.org/join/43885342-… ImageImageImageImage
37/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Florida

Another traditional swing-state. 3 of the 5 toss-ups are getting safer: Jacksonville (4) & Tampa (14+15). 2 are trending-R: St Petersburg (13) & 18th (but Nelson 51-49%). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 187D-107R-53? davesredistricting.org/join/7aa3360f-… ImageImageImageImage
38/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Texas

Onto the New Purples! 25-14 D map; 12 seats were right-leaning in 2008: Waco-Austin-San Antonio (20, 39) Fort Worth-Dallas (24, 26, 32, 38) & Houston (2, 7, 10, 22, 29, 37). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 212D-121R-53? davesredistricting.org/join/6237901b-… ImageImageImageImage
39/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Georgia

The only toss-up is the (surprisingly high Hispanic) GA-07. And with Atlanta’s suburbs trending blue, I imagine it’d just get more left-leaning. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 220D-126R-54? davesredistricting.org/join/105f9ab7-… ImageImageImageImage
40/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #NorthCarolina

NC is an interesting one: Charlotte will continue to cement NC-08 and NC-10. Dems would have African-American-majority *primaries* in 5 of 9 seats (1, 2, 9, 12, 13). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 227D-131R-56? davesredistricting.org/join/2e376bfb-… ImageImageImageImage
41/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Arizona

Remarkably, every district was more R than the nation in 2008 (McCain’s home-state bonus?). Now, the only toss-ups: AZ-01 (Sinema 51.7-45.0%) & AZ-10 (Sinema 52.6-44.5%). #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 232D-134R-58? davesredistricting.org/join/f5ca6e27-… ImageImageImageImage
42/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #Virginia

Finally, my sentimental favorite. Assuming wins in the 3 D-trending toss-ups (1, 5, 11); this is a 9-2(!) map. Yes, I’m quite proud of myself. #ElectionTwitter

Running Total: 238D-136R-61? davesredistricting.org/join/92002e0d-… ImageImageImageImage
43/43 #ArtOfTheGerrymander: #fairmaps

My thread is yet another illustration of how gerrymandering can unfairly amplify a majority’s dominance. fairvote.org/fair_rep_in_co…

@RepDonBeyer’s #FairRepAct would implement STV, achieving proportional results for the House. @fairvote Image

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More from @StephenBeban

28 Mar
My contribution to keeping quarantined #ElectionTwitter sane: A Tour of the 50 States*

*Equal-population simulation (approximated by counties) 1/40
@JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @HarryEnten @Redistrict @ecaliberseven @PoliticsWolf @uselectionatlas @DKElections @Center4Politics
I used Redraw the States to resize them all to 10-11 Electoral Votes (sans DC/3 & Los Angeles county/16).

Electoral College:
2016: Clinton 297-241
2012: Obama 317-221

Then got curious how they voted for Gov/Sen... 2/40
kevinhayeswilson.com/redraw/?share=…
NB: Methodology: I combined results by year-sets e.g. 2012-16 (Sen), and 2013-16 (Gov).

I used the wonderful ourcampaigns.com to pull county results going back to 1957 (i.e. stopped when Hawaii and Alaska were admitted as states + data quality issues that far back). 3/40
Read 42 tweets
30 Jan
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets

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