Improved Dave's #Redistricting App brings me joy! (Gratefully anticipating post-2020). @davesredist @mikemathieu #ElectionTwitter 1/27
@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
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@PoliticsWolf @ecaliberseven @DKElections @JMilesColeman @SenhorRaposa @Center4Politics @Redistrict @fairvote @jbview
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Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-… 
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Reflecting the overall regional movements; the West and South maps help up well. In 2016, Clinton easily won #NM01 and #NM03. The 20% Native American purple #NM02 weakened slightly, but stayed blue, and @RepTorresSmall would likely lock it down. 4/27 davesredistricting.org/join/da6b4423-…
NV would have 2 safe D seats. #NV04 is competitive, and probably politically overlaps the real #NV03. It weakened a couple of points, but uniting Carson City and certain Las Vegas burbs kept it blue, unlike @RepSusieLee’s current district. 5/27 davesredistricting.org/join/2dc13864-…
This CO map uses two R vote sinks: the rural East-West #CO04, and ‘Millennium Falcon’ #CO06. 4 of 5 Dem seats would have stayed safely blue. #CO03’s margin shrunk, but would likely been safe for @RepDMB (assuming Rep John Salazar had not regained it). 6/27 davesredistricting.org/join/3217bb1f-…
Funny thing about this TX map is that there was not a uniform swing. Instead, seats tended to move in directions that reinforced their original lean. The only competitive seat, the Waco-Austin #TX31, solidified into a stronger D seat by 2016. 7/27 davesredistricting.org/join/759b9c25-…
One of my most aesthetically pleasing; WA worked as intended. While the northeast Spokane #WA05 slid out of reach; #WA03 remained a swing district – and the swap of Lewis and Klickitat counties for Yakima would likely have let @ElectLong win in 2018. 8/27 davesredistricting.org/join/c0d9c63d-…
Another favorite; almost-boringly effective. Trump outperformed *2008* only in safe-R Appalachian #VA06 #VA09. Given the asymmetry of unilateral disarmament; I wouldn’t blame #VAPolitics Dems for gerrymandering while waiting for a national solution. 9/27 davesredistricting.org/join/a735f4d8-…
A third one of which I am proud. It also showed me how terrifyingly well GA’s polarization and population distribution lends itself to gerrymandering. All the blue districts turned bluer by 2016, solidifying the two most vulnerable – #GA02 and #GA12. 10/27 davesredistricting.org/join/4bd50c27-…
TN shifted mostly expectedly. D vote increased in Nashville-Murfreesboro #TN05; and collapsed in the #TN03 ‘lobster.’ But the Memphis-districts diverged: northwest Memphis-Clarksville #TN08 went D+6 to D+2; southwest Memphis-Jackson #TN09 vice versa. 11/27 davesredistricting.org/join/401f996b-…
Along with the previous and next maps; SC seems to require a gerrymander just to get a proportional congressional delegation. Inexplicably, #SC02, #SC05, and #SC06 varied more downballot for Senate 2016: 50.8%, 52.6%, and 46.8% respectively. 12/27 davesredistricting.org/join/e8e89d1c-…
Obviously, some version of this was really the only good option for AR – something all political observers recognized even in 2010, despite @MikeRossUpdates’ optimism. The Delta-Little Rock #AR02 went from D+2 to D+6, as all the others got redder. 13/27 davesredistricting.org/join/743d5215-…
The Midwest and Northeast are even more intriguing.
IA is a good example, holding up as well as could be expected. #IA04 is an effective vote sink. This enabled #IA02 and #IA03 to stay Dem, though #IA01 cratered. 2 lean-D are better than 3-lean R. 14/27 davesredistricting.org/join/6f0f9df8-…
IA is a good example, holding up as well as could be expected. #IA04 is an effective vote sink. This enabled #IA02 and #IA03 to stay Dem, though #IA01 cratered. 2 lean-D are better than 3-lean R. 14/27 davesredistricting.org/join/6f0f9df8-…
My only indisputable dummymander failed to account for Obama’s neighbour-state bonus. Ironic, since that’s why I suspected splitting Dems across #IL12-#IL13 was a mistake. I overreached with the bloody #IN08 and Fort Wayne #IN03 turning blood red. 15/27 davesredistricting.org/join/c7418947-…
I anticipated failure; but *this* ‘blue wall’ seemed to actually hold 😉. Granted, it weakened: #OH05, Appalachian #OH06 (49.6% Obama!) sailed off the playing field. But D seats stayed blue (albeit Youngstown #OH16 if only for @TimRyan’s incumbency). 17/27 davesredistricting.org/join/63c2f657-…
I think this succeeded. A single R vote sink (#WI05) enabled 7 strong Obama seats. Clinton still won 4. Plus #WI06 stayed competitive. No way to have anticipated how badly northern Wisconsin could have used another R vote sink without hindsight bias. 18/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d3f1cf40-…
Oh, how deceptively complex a single line can be. I wanted to apply ME’s statewide Democratic advantage consistently across both districts. Simple, right? But #ME01 and #ME02 insist on diverging. They reopened a gap between them in 2016. 19/27 davesredistricting.org/join/23bc0994-…
NJ lends itself to gerrymandering. With #NJ03 and #NJ05 as vote sinks, this map would have secured an equivalent result (8D-2R) to the current delegation, except much earlier (and more securely) than 2019. 20/27 davesredistricting.org/join/40272825-…
Another three of my favorites now. MI exceeded my expectations of how it fared. Just 2 R vote sinks allowed 12(!) D-leaning districts in 2008. Of which, 8 stayed D-leaning in 2016. The other 4 would have been competitive; even safe with D incumbents. 21/27 davesredistricting.org/join/2c409f9d-…
Contrast 2018’s 2D-for-2R flips on the real map with this durable Democratic advantage: 6 of 8 (including @collinpeterson’s #MN08!) gave Obama >57%. 5 would still be D-leaning in 2016; and the #MN08 didn’t crack 50% for Trump – much easier to defend. 22/27 davesredistricting.org/join/4a30925d-…
Dems’ biggest missed opportunity: 2 R vote sinks to turn the rest blue (albeit some competitive e.g. ‘microscope’ #NY17 'earmuff' #NY26). Fwiw, imo: @repdelgado= #NY23, @RepBrindisi= #NY19; @LTGovhochulNY= #NY26. Katko may still have won bluer #NY24. 23/27 davesredistricting.org/join/44a1430f-…
The previous two have a theme of Dems failing to maximize their partisan advantages. Perhaps they are instinctually fairer / less willing to push the boundaries. And/or, as the next map suggests, maybe they push a counterproductive interpretation of the #VRA. 24/27
Fascinating House-primaries experiment: trade MD’s majority-minority districts for max partisan gain. And yet: more Ds would offer better policy; and dividing black pop by 2016 vote share shows 5 black-majority Dem primaries and 1 black-plurality. 25/27 davesredistricting.org/join/4466a699-…
Now, to be clear, some of my maps could be tidied up. I also deliberately didn’t concern myself too strictly with state or federal laws (see: MD and the VRA).
Other people have produced interesting, illustrative maps that did – e.g. NC (and others): 26/27
Other people have produced interesting, illustrative maps that did – e.g. NC (and others):
26/27
However, the point remains: how powerful #gerrymandering is. It can amplify a D/R majorities’ edge. Or cement unfair majorities in competitive states – despite waves (10-14-18) and shifting political demographics (12-16).
We need @DonBeyer's #FairRepAct for #fairmaps. 27/27
We need @DonBeyer's #FairRepAct for #fairmaps. 27/27
