After taking yesterday off, we’ve got new #COVID19 stats for Minnesota. These stats are what would have ordinarily been released *yesterday* — that is, they’re data reported to the state through 4 p.m. on Thursday.

2,170 new cases takes the 7-day average down to 2,112/day.
New MN cases continue to trend downward, but at a slowing rate. Today saw the 7-day average for new cases fall by 81 cases from yesterday. That’s the smallest drop in this trendline since it fell by 70 on Dec. 8:
These case totals came on strong but not overwhelming testing volume. The positivity rate also continued to fall week-over-week, but pretty slowly. The 7-day average is still around 5.3%.
Another 57 newly reported #COVID19 deaths today, still a very high number. But it’s down from 65 last Friday, so MN’s average death rate keeps trending slowly down, to 55/day. It was 62/day a week ago.
No halt to the steady decline in new #COVID19 hospitalizations, but they’re not back to pre-spike levels, either:
With just under a week left to go, December 2020 has reported 1,514 #COVID19 deaths, already the most in any month this year.
December has reported 88,267 confirmed #COVID19 cases in Minnesota, just over half of November’s record 170,594. (Note that limited testing makes spring case figures severe underestimates.)
Tomorrow at 11 a.m., @mnhealth will release two days of data in one: from 4 p.m. on Dec. 24 through 4 p.m. on Dec. 26. Keep this in mind — we could, for ex., report 102 deaths, which would be a 1-day record, except it wouldn’t be 1 day, it’d be 2 days with an average of 51/day.
@mnhealth Yes, I asked @mnhealth if they could break out what the data would have been for each day. They said they couldn’t do it. So don’t @ me about this.

Back to my vacation for another 23.5 hours!

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More from @dhmontgomery

27 Dec
Today, @mnhealth released two days of #COVID19 data in one (data reported on 12/25 and 12/26).

But considering it’s two days of data, it’s pretty darn encouraging! New cases were only up a few hundred, and are STILL below last Sunday’s levels (which was just 1 day of data).
@mnhealth And while new cases went up a little bit over last Sunday (which again isn’t apples-to-apples), new tests went up a ton. So the positivity rate was below 3%.

For the first time since Oct. 7, Minnesota’s 7-day average positivity rate is below the key 5% cutoff.
@mnhealth Deaths were what I was worried about, as they’ve been the highest metric recently. Two days of data in one means we could have easily seen 100+ newly reported deaths. Instead, we got 40.

Now, it’s possible next week will see a lot of backlogged deaths from the long weekend.
Read 6 tweets
24 Dec
Another 79 newly reported #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota today means that Minnesota has had its 5,000th #COVID19 death this year. All told 5,050 reported deaths to date.
Still, 79 deaths today is fewer than the 83 we had last Thursday, so #COVID19 deaths *are* still trending downward in Minnesota, now at a 7-day average of 56 deaths per day. (Which is still a TON! But it was 66/day last Thursday.) Image
1,900 new #COVID19 cases is up a little from yesterday’s 1,500, but more than *twice* as many tests. The daily positivity rate was a tiny 3.7%, the lowest since Oct. 4.

Over the last 7 days, MN’s averaged 2,200 cases/day with a 5.3% positivity rate. ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
14 Dec
Minnesota’s #COVID19 cases continue to decline rapidly — just over 3,000 newly reported cases today, compared to 5,300 last Monday. The 7-day average is down to about 3,700/day, or about where things were on Nov. 7.
At this rate, Minnesota’s average daily newly reported #COVID19 cases will be back to pre-surge levels before Christmas:
Last Monday’s tests produced 4,720 tests, down from 7,617 the Monday prior, 7,962 before then, and 8,702 the Monday before that.
Read 7 tweets
13 Dec
Another 85 reported #COVID19 deaths today in Minnesota, as a metric that had seemed like it was plateauing a week ago has resumed a deadly rise. The 7-day average COVID death rate is up to nearly 66 deaths/day, a record high.
Deaths are at record highs both in and out of long-term care facilities. The #COVID19 death rate outside of LTCs is higher than the death rate *in* them in the May peak.
As has been the case for a while, though, the terrible mortality numbers are balanced by improvements in almost every other metric. New #COVID19 cases continue to decline, with a 7-day average down to about 4,000 cases per day. from a peak over 7,000.
Read 9 tweets
12 Dec
Last week I wrote about how student radicals were one of the big drivers behind France's wave of revolutionary conspiracy in 1821-2. Today I'd like to talk a little bit more about the other big group of conspirators: soldiers (and especially ex-soldiers). 1/
2/ The archetypical anti-government veteran in France’s Bourbon Restoration (1814-1830) was the “demi-solde,” or “half-pay officer.” These were former soldiers who were no longer on active duty, but instead were sort of pensioned off, receiving half their old salary.
3/ At first glance, that doesn’t sound bad — you get half your old salary for doing nothing at all? But there are good reasons that many demi-soldes were quite resentful.
Read 18 tweets
12 Dec
Another 67 #COVID19 deaths reported in Minnesota today, though that’s down from 94 yesterday and 75 last Saturday. The 7-day average is 63 deaths per day, just under a record high. Not replicating yesterday’s jump is welcome, but no sign yet of any decline in mortality. Image
Cases have gone up for the third day in a row — but each time lower than the same day last week, so the *trend* is fairly aggressively downward. The 7-day average is now 4,320 cases per day, down from 6,771 two weeks ago. Image
Similarly, Minnesota’s positivity rate is up day-over-day, but *down* week-over-week. The 7-day average is down to 9%, the lowest since late October. Image
Read 7 tweets

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