Thread by @dhmontgomery

Another 79 newly reported #COVID19 deaths in Minnesota today means that Minnesota has had its 5,000th #COVID19 death this year. All told 5,050 reported deaths to date.

Still, 79 deaths today is fewer than the 83 we had last Thursday, so #COVID19 deaths *are* still trending downward in Minnesota, now at a 7-day average of 56 deaths per day. (Which is still a TON! But it was 66/day last Thursday.)

1,900 new #COVID19 cases is up a little from yesterday’s 1,500, but more than *twice* as many tests. The daily positivity rate was a tiny 3.7%, the lowest since Oct. 4.

Over the last 7 days, MN’s averaged 2,200 cases/day with a 5.3% positivity rate.

Testing volumes have been pretty flat all week — no upward surge in pre-Christmas testing to be seen (though a weeks-long decline in testing volume did halt). We’ll see if Saturday’s report (with people getting their test results today) shows a one-day spike, at least.

#COVID19 hospital admission rates continue to plummet, but aren’t yet back to pre-spike levels.

Cases are falling all over the state, but aren’t quite back to pre-spike levels anywhere:

Controlling for testing volume, positivity rate is falling in almost every county in Minnesota.

Hennepin and Ramsey counties have had a positivity rate below 5% over the past week.

Minnesota’s average positivity rate is so close to getting under 5% that my stupid script thinks it will happen later today.

But cases have been declining more slowly than they were earlier this month; we probably won’t get back to pre-spike levels until next week at the earliest.

There will be NO #COVID19 data release tomorrow, due to Christmas Day. On Saturday, @mnhealth will release the data that would otherwise have been released on Friday. On Sunday, we get two days of data in one, which will mess up all the trendlines.

Then we repeat for New Year’s.

@mnhealth The year is nearly done, so here’s a look at total deaths in Minnesota (through the 48th week, or about the start of December — more recent 2020 data is incomplete). We’ve had nearly 5,000 more deaths than last year, dramatically above recent trends.

@mnhealth This death discrepancy will only widen once you add the final four weeks in, since December 2020 has seen the height of MN’s #COVID19 death spike:

@mnhealth This holds true even if you account for population growth. MN’s per capita death rate in 2020 (through Week 48) is nearly 80 deaths per 100,000 people above 2019, by far the biggest jump in recent years.

@mnhealth It’s not surprising that the death rate has been rising, even with improving medicine — Minnesota’s population is getting older, and this is crude death rate, not age-adjusted.