Hope everyone had a good holidays, especially the 36,525 folks who voted in-person over the last 4 days.

We're up to 2,126,254 total votes cast in the runoff with both voting methods about 25% behind the general election's pace.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
The top-6 congressional districts for turnout, compared to their early vote totals in the 2020 general, are all of the Democratic-held seats now.

GA-14, where Trump will be coming next Monday, is dead last by a lot.
Another data point for you:

60.3% of D primary voters have already voted (745,576) vs 47.4% of R primary voters (504,950).

That leaves another 875,728 early voters so far who did not vote in the D or R primary in June.
The demo breakdown of just that group of 875k:

White - 54.8%
Black - 28.2%
Hispanic - 3.0%
Asian - 3.9%
Other/Unk - 10.1%

18 to 29 - 14.3%
30 to 39 - 12.7%
40 to 49 - 16.2%
50 to 64 - 31.4%
65 plus - 25.3%
And where those non-primary voters are coming from:

138,498 - Fulton
86,394 - Gwinnett
76,066 - Dekalb
59,182 - Cobb
28,503 - Forsyth
23,998 - Cherokee
20,682 - Henry
19,822 - Clayton
17,219 - Chatham
15,821 - Columbia

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Ryan Anderson

Ryan Anderson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @gtryan

29 Dec
Big day of voting yesterday brings us up to 2,337,477 total votes in the January runoffs. Lots of other folks have written some good stuff this morning so today's thread is a series of links.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Here's @Nate_Cohn to start us off with daily breakdowns by race. Takeaway: only one single day of early voting saw Black voters with a lower share of the electorate than the same day in November.

Statewide totals and precinct-level maps of turnout rates from @stphnfwlr

Read 5 tweets
24 Dec
New day, new GV numbers. We've officially cracked 2 million early voters now, with 2,062,902 votes cast. The daily pace continues to slow a bit, with IP voting down to just 1% ahead of 2020 general pace.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
I think the big question now is where does early voting come in, and how does that compare to the general. With a few more days of early in-person voting + ~500k mail applications outstanding It seems like 3 million is likely and 3.5 million isn't.
Also, the most observant of you may notice that we have fewer folks in the "unknown" and "other" classifications now. That's because I got a new file yesterday and so we have demographic data on about 30,000 more voters.
Read 5 tweets
23 Dec
We're up to 1,884,692 votes cast in the Georgia runoffs. After tonight's update we'll probably hit 50% of the early vote turnout for the 2020 general, and then it's the holidays and numbers will slow significantly.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Mail votes increased by 58,111 since yesterday, bringing the total mail vote within 19% of the general's at this point.

In-person votes grew up 147,957 and remain about 3% ahead of pace. Days are coming in below 2020 general pace regularly basis now, so expect this to drop.
GA-07 has jumped ahead of GA-09 now in "early turnout compared to early turnout for the general"

In fact, the bottom 4 congressional districts for turnout so far are all folks who signed on to the Texas brief, and MTG.

georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php
Read 5 tweets
22 Dec
1,678,624 people have voted in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. 621,098 by mail and just over 1 million in-person.

Overall, vote totals are within 7% of this point in the general election.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
In-person voting was 154,628 yesterday, marking the 5th straight day of in-person voting lower than during the general. Given that we'll have effectively 0 votes from Thursday-Sunday this week it'll be telling to see where today and tomorrow end up.
While a lot of numbers are slightly down, the percentage of voters who did not vote in the general election is actually climbing. It's up to 2.9% now, representing 49,118 total voters.
Read 4 tweets
19 Dec
Ok, as promised I dug into the numbers a little more. Particularly around how people voted in the 2020 primary. There are better ways to estimate overall partisanship, but I've stuck with this for now.
First, I want to let folks revisit the breakdown of D and R primary voters who have voted so far, vs the breakdown through the first week of early voting in the general.

Dem "lead" is 154k vs 181k in the general on lower overall turnout. That's about D +16% vs D +17.4%.
This also lines up with what Nate Cohn has been posting about, which looks at this a lot more thoroughly than I think I am. Dems are doing well, but not necessarily as well as they were at this point in the general.

Read 8 tweets
18 Dec
Over 1,123,000 people have cast a vote in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. Over 30,000 of them did not vote in the general election in November.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Let's start with some demographic breakdowns. The electorate so far is much more racially diverse than we'd expect at this point, but closer to our expectations from an age perspective.

As mentioned previously, young voters tend to vote later: georgiavotes.substack.com/p/1026-who-vot…
The current electorate is just under 55% white. If we include everyone with an approved, outstanding mail ballot that number drops below 54%.

Just as a comparison, the early voting electorate in the general was 56.6% white.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!