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Ryan Anderson Profile picture
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29 Dec, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Big day of voting yesterday brings us up to 2,337,477 total votes in the January runoffs. Lots of other folks have written some good stuff this morning so today's thread is a series of links.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Here's @Nate_Cohn to start us off with daily breakdowns by race. Takeaway: only one single day of early voting saw Black voters with a lower share of the electorate than the same day in November.

Statewide totals and precinct-level maps of turnout rates from @stphnfwlr

More demographic breakdowns + a look at the big Red and Blue counties by @WinWithJMC

And finally, @NW_Horadam breaks down the VBM trends for us by congressional district

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Ryan Anderson Profile picture
30 Dec
Yesterday saw 228,855 votes recorded in the runoff elections, with in-person voting actually surpassing same day voting from the November cycle.

2,566,332 total people have voted.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
91,165 of those voters didn't vote in the November election, a percentage that just keeps growing and is now at 3.6%. There are more voters who didn't vote in November so far than there are voters who voted on Election Day (78,804, 3.1% of the total).
Black voters continue to make up over 31% of the total electorate, vs just under 28% in the November early vote.

Yesterday's turnout was 28.1% Black vs 23.7% on the same day for November voting. Here's your @Nate_Cohn-esque chart. Image
Read 7 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
28 Dec
Hope everyone had a good holidays, especially the 36,525 folks who voted in-person over the last 4 days.

We're up to 2,126,254 total votes cast in the runoff with both voting methods about 25% behind the general election's pace.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
The top-6 congressional districts for turnout, compared to their early vote totals in the 2020 general, are all of the Democratic-held seats now.

GA-14, where Trump will be coming next Monday, is dead last by a lot.
Another data point for you:

60.3% of D primary voters have already voted (745,576) vs 47.4% of R primary voters (504,950).

That leaves another 875,728 early voters so far who did not vote in the D or R primary in June.
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
24 Dec
New day, new GV numbers. We've officially cracked 2 million early voters now, with 2,062,902 votes cast. The daily pace continues to slow a bit, with IP voting down to just 1% ahead of 2020 general pace.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
I think the big question now is where does early voting come in, and how does that compare to the general. With a few more days of early in-person voting + ~500k mail applications outstanding It seems like 3 million is likely and 3.5 million isn't.
Also, the most observant of you may notice that we have fewer folks in the "unknown" and "other" classifications now. That's because I got a new file yesterday and so we have demographic data on about 30,000 more voters.
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
23 Dec
We're up to 1,884,692 votes cast in the Georgia runoffs. After tonight's update we'll probably hit 50% of the early vote turnout for the 2020 general, and then it's the holidays and numbers will slow significantly.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
Mail votes increased by 58,111 since yesterday, bringing the total mail vote within 19% of the general's at this point.

In-person votes grew up 147,957 and remain about 3% ahead of pace. Days are coming in below 2020 general pace regularly basis now, so expect this to drop.
GA-07 has jumped ahead of GA-09 now in "early turnout compared to early turnout for the general"

In fact, the bottom 4 congressional districts for turnout so far are all folks who signed on to the Texas brief, and MTG.

georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php
Read 5 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
22 Dec
1,678,624 people have voted in the Senate runoff elections in Georgia. 621,098 by mail and just over 1 million in-person.

Overall, vote totals are within 7% of this point in the general election.

#gapol #gapolitics

georgiavotes.com
In-person voting was 154,628 yesterday, marking the 5th straight day of in-person voting lower than during the general. Given that we'll have effectively 0 votes from Thursday-Sunday this week it'll be telling to see where today and tomorrow end up.
While a lot of numbers are slightly down, the percentage of voters who did not vote in the general election is actually climbing. It's up to 2.9% now, representing 49,118 total voters.
Read 4 tweets
Ryan Anderson Profile picture
19 Dec
Ok, as promised I dug into the numbers a little more. Particularly around how people voted in the 2020 primary. There are better ways to estimate overall partisanship, but I've stuck with this for now.
First, I want to let folks revisit the breakdown of D and R primary voters who have voted so far, vs the breakdown through the first week of early voting in the general.

Dem "lead" is 154k vs 181k in the general on lower overall turnout. That's about D +16% vs D +17.4%.
This also lines up with what Nate Cohn has been posting about, which looks at this a lot more thoroughly than I think I am. Dems are doing well, but not necessarily as well as they were at this point in the general.

Read 8 tweets

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