Share this page!

Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture
Twitter logo
30 Dec 20, 9 tweets, 3 min read
The evidence is in, and the UK variant does appear to be of great concern. The viral load of infected people is higher, and it seems to be about 50% more transmissible. It doesn’t appear to cause more severe illness, but more cases will unfortunately result in greater mortality.
The estimated viral load of people infected with the new variant is substantially higher, although it is not yet clear why. Further laboratory studies will hopefully explain this.
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
In contrast to early speculation, children do not appear to be markedly more susceptible to the new variant.
An investigation using NHS contact tracing data found 15.1% of contacts of people infected with the new variant became infected, compared to 9.8% of contacts of people infected with an older variant.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Mortality does not seem to be substantially different.

In an analysis of 2,700 people followed for 28 days, 0.89% of people with the new variant died compared to 0.73% of those with older variants. This was not statistically significant.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Unfortunately, owing to exponential growth, a 50% increase in transmissibility is worse than it sounds, and will lead to more deaths than a similar increase in lethality would.
There is no evidence to suggest measures to limit transmission of the virus such as masks and ventilation will no longer be effective.

However, measures to limit contacts will need to be more strict to keep transmission in check.
More on the spread of the new variant by @TWenseleers, showing that it really is more transmissible, and can’t simply be explained by a few superspreading events.
It’s also worth adding that while children don’t seem to be more susceptible to this variant, they nonetheless are susceptible to infection, and transmit.

Given the increased transmissibility of the variant, we can unfortunately expect more transmission to occur in schools.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Dr Zoë Hyde

Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @DrZoeHyde

Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture
18 Dec 20
(1/4) If I understand correctly, this is potentially dangerous. Rapid testing is to be rolled out in UK schools, but only staff are to be tested regularly. Students will only be tested if they are close contacts.
🔰 dfemedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/12/15/mas…

This has problems.

H/T: @dgurdasani1.
(2/4)

➡️ Both staff and students should be regularly tested. A proactive approach is required. Find the cases in students before they have a chance to transmit!

➡️ Primary school students should also be tested, not just secondary students. Young children transmit the virus too.
(3/4)

➡️ The rapid test to be used (a lateral flow test) has been shown to give false negatives half of the time.

Because close contacts will no longer quarantine under this programme, it’s likely some will go on to infect others.
bmj.com/content/371/bm…
Read 4 tweets
Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture
16 Dec 20
The latest round of random testing in the UK shows both children and teenagers are now more likely to be infected than adults.

1 in 48 teenagers and 1 in 58 children tested positive.

Infections are decreasing in adults, but increasing in children.

Red bar = most recent round.
The proportion of people testing positive by age group is as follows:

5-12: 1.7%
13-17: 2.1%
18-24: 1.0%
25-34: 1.0%
35-44: 0.8%
45-54: 0.8%
55-64: 0.7%
65+: 0.4%
In the accompanying media release the researchers note cases are no longer decreasing overall and:

“School-age children are ... the most affected age group, which could be linked to schools remaining open during lockdown.”

Link to media release & report: imperial.ac.uk/news/210873/co…
Read 4 tweets
Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture
12 Dec 20
(1/10) Follow-up study of household contacts of people with #COVID19, showing it’s possible to prevent transmission at home.

Daily testing showed some people may not test positive for long. One child was positive for only 2 days. Cases are easily missed.
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27…
(2/10) This was a study of 5 households in Utah, conducted by the CDC. Each household had one index case. CDC staff visited each household within 2-4 days of the index cases’ positive test (day 0), for the next 4 days (day 1-4), and 14 days later. Contacts were tested each visit.
(3/10) In 3 of the 5 households, there was no transmission to other household members (0%).

In the other 2 households, all family members were infected (100%).

Overall, 7 of the total 15 contacts were infected (47%).
Read 10 tweets
Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture
10 Dec 20
(1/5) Study of a biomarker of blood clots in small blood vessels in 50 children with mild (n=21) & severe (n=11) #COVID19, and MIS-C (n=18).

➡️ Biomarker elevated in all groups.

➡️ Evidence of kidney injury in 10% of mild cases (36% severe, 28% MIS-C).
ashpublications.org/bloodadvances/…
(2/5) The children with mild illness included hospital patients in which #SARSCoV2 had been identified in routine testing before admission (unrelated to #COVID19).

As such, it is possible they may not be representative of mild cases generally.
(3/5) It is unclear what the long-term implications of this study are. It is possible these findings are fully reversible.
Read 5 tweets
Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture
9 Dec 20
1. Updated thread on children & #COVID19, summarising recent research.

Summary: further evidence children and adults are equally susceptible, and similarly likely to transmit. Schools have been a driver of the second wave in Europe, Canada, and elsewhere.
#edutwitter #auspol
2. First, a recap. Given similar exposure, children and adults appear equally susceptible to infection, and also appear to transmit at a similar rate. School transmission has been increasing in many countries.
3. Because children are more likely to be asymptomatic than adults, infections in this age group can be difficult to detect.

I wrote an article about how this has affected some of the research to date, and why we mustn’t overlook schools.
Read 30 tweets
Dr Zoë Hyde Profile picture
3 Dec 20
(1/9) #LongCovid is common. In this study of 180 Faroe Islanders (of whom only 8 were hospitalised), 53% had at least 1 symptom after an average of 4 months (minimum follow-up 45 days).

Fatigue, joint pain, and loss of smell and taste were most common.
academic.oup.com/cid/advance-ar…
(2/9) All 187 people who tested positive for #COVID19 between 3 March and 22 April were invited to participate in this study, and 180 took part. Participants were followed up (by telephone) for 45-215 days (average: 125 days).

The average age was 39 years, and 54% were female.
(3/9) In the initial phase of illness, 8 people (4.4%) were asymptomatic.

At the last assessment, just under half (47%) were symptom-free. One-third (33.3%; n=60) had 1 or 2 symptoms, and 19.4% (n=35) had >=3 symptoms.

Two asymptomatic people subsequently reported symptoms.
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @DrZoeHyde has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @DrZoeHyde!

Read all threads by @DrZoeHyde