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Aaron Derfel

31 Dec 20, 9 tweets, 6 min read

1) While Montreal reported a dip in #COVID19 cases Wednesday, the #coronavirus surged in regions outside the metropolis, underscoring the #pandemic’s cruel unpredictability. In this thread, I will review the latest trends in the city and the province.

2) What’s noteworthy is the extent to which the #pandemic is intensifying in two regions which had previously succeeded in controlling the contagion: the Eastern Townships and Abitibi-Témiscamingue. The former posted 123 cases Wednesday from 73 the day before.

3) In Abitibi, #COVID19 cases jumped from two to six, and La Presse is reporting the latest numbers are 13 to be revealed on Thursday. Public health officials are concerned people in the region may have flouted guidelines on family gatherings over the holidays.

4) Meanwhile, Montreal counted 754 #COVID19 cases on Wednesday, a drop of more than 200 from the day before. This may be a one-day blip, given that the trend in the previous three days was in the 900-plus range. Please see the chart below.

@mtlgazette

5) The fact is the #COVID19 positivity rate is rising all over Montreal, as I reported earlier today in the @mtlgazette. A week ago, the rate was 9.3%. By Wednesday, it climbed to a disturbing 10.6%. Please click on the updated story below for context. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…

6) Although the number of #COVID19 outbreaks has dipped in Montreal (mostly in the workplace), provincially they’re up slightly. #COVID19 clusters rose by four in health institutions and by 17 in the workplace. Please see the chart below showing a total of 1,606 active outbreaks.

7) Unfortunately, such outbreaks will ultimately result in more hospitalizations. On Wednesday, the province crossed the 1,200 mark in hospitalizations and posted the highest number of ICU stays to date in the second wave: 152. Please take a look at the chart below.

8) What I find astonishing is the sheer number of people in Montreal — in the middle of a #pandemic — receiving hallway medicine in the city’s ERs. At the Jewish General Hospital, 70 patients have been stuck in its ER for at least two days. At the Lakeshore General, it’s 16.

9) Quebec is poised to close 2020 with more than 200,000 #COVID19 infections. The province’s death toll stood at 8,165 Wednesday, and Montreal’s rose by seven to 3,847. The one bit of good news is a fresh shipment of the Moderna vaccines. They couldn’t come sooner. End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

1 Jan

1) With nearly two-thirds of the Montreal region’s hospital #pandemic beds now filled with #COVI19 patients, there’s a good chance the city’s intensive-care units will reach over-capacity as early as Jan. 17, according to the latest projections by a provincial health institute.

2) “For the first time, it is likely that dedicated (bed) capacity will be exceeded within the next three weeks,” warns the Institut national d’excellence en santé et en services sociaux (INESSS). At the same time, more and more health workers are contracting #COVID19.

3) Although Quebec on Thursday posted a noticeable drop in #COVID19 hospitalizations (down by 36 to 1,175), the number of ICU stays rose by 13 to 165. What’s more, the province set a record 2,819 cases, a percentage of which will turn into hospitalizations in a week or two.

Read 12 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

30 Dec 20

1) For at least the past two days, the centre of Montreal has been virtually exploding with #COVID19 cases to an extent not witnessed since the first wave. In this thread, I will try to explain what might be going on in the city.

2) First, Montreal posted a record 968 #COVID19 cases Tuesday. The city’s seven-day average inched up to 43.03 cases per 100,000 residents. That’s 18 cases higher than the 25-case threshold set by Harvard University’s public health experts to recommend total stay-at-home orders.

3) For the past three days, Montreal has recorded daily #COVID19 cases in the 900-range, suggesting the second wave has not yet peaked in the metropolis. Outside of the city, the #pandemic may have plateaued in some regions of the province.

Read 9 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

29 Dec 20

1) At the current rate Quebec is vaccinating against #COVID19, it could take up to 8,522 days to achieve collective immunity against the #coronavirus in the province. In this thread, I will explain why the vaccine rollout will be a lot more complicated than some may have hoped.

2) I am basing the above calculations on comments that Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious-diseases expert in the U.S., made to the New York Times on Dec. 24, as well as an interview I conducted with Dr. Philippe De Wals, a member of the Comité sur l’immunisation du Québec.

3) Dr. Fauci had this to say: “I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 per cent (of the U.S. population vaccinated). But I'm not going to say 90%." In another interview, Fauci suggested 80% to achieve herd immunity. Let’s go with that figure and apply it to Quebec.

Read 15 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

29 Dec 20

1) Outbreaks of #COVID19 were flaring up Monday in five seniors’ residences and one long-term care centre as the #pandemic intensified both in Montreal and across the province. In this thread, I will examine the latest developments.

2) In the most dramatic example, the Masion familiale de Coaticook in the Estrie reported 36 #COVID19 cases in the past 24 hours, as the chart below makes clear. In the next serious example, a Chartwell seniors’ residence in the Montérégie posted 28 infections since Sunday.

3) Across the province, the Quebec Health Ministry confirmed an increase of 16 #COVID19 outbreaks since Dec. 24, including 17 more in health-care institutions. What’s odd is the spike of 17 clusters in schools even though they’ve been closed for more than a week. See below.

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

28 Dec 20

1) Montreal on Sunday posted a record 943 #COVID19 cases in the #pandemic. That’s up from just 200 cases on Nov. 19. In this thread, I will focus on the contagiousness of the #coronavirus and whether Quebec might have the new variant discovered in the United Kingdom.

2) The city’s rolling seven-day average has reached nearly 39 cases per 100,000 population. But what’s also worth noting is that the whole province is now at a rate of 26.24 cases per 100,000, well above Harvard University’s threshold of 25 to impose stay-at-home orders.

3) In fact, Quebec has now posted eight consecutive days of #COVID19 cases above the 2,000 mark. Remember when Quebec’s chief public health officer, Dr. Horacio Arruda, said in November that he hoped the province’s daily number would drop below 1,000?

Read 10 tweets

Aaron Derfel

@Aaron_Derfel

27 Dec 20

1) As Quebecers await word on whether a more contagious variant of the #coronavirus is circulating in the province, it’s worth reviewing the latest provincial data on workplace outbreaks, with cases surging in the manufacturing industry as well as in retail and big box stores.

2) The number of workplace #COVID19 outbreaks in the province soared from 272 on Dec. 12 to 699 on Dec. 19 — a truly dramatic increase that underscores the contagiousness of the #coronavirus. Please see the latest chart below by the Institut national de santé publique du Québec.

3) What stands out is the sheer number of #COVID19 clusters in Quebec manufacturing, including in food processing as well as in factories involved in a wide range of products. A total of 1,336 workers in manufacturing contracted the #coronavirus out of 187 outbreaks.

Read 9 tweets

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