1) With nearly two-thirds of the Montreal region’s hospital #pandemic beds now filled with #COVI19 patients, there’s a good chance the city’s intensive-care units will reach over-capacity as early as Jan. 17, according to the latest projections by a provincial health institute. 
2) “For the first time, it is likely that dedicated (bed) capacity will be exceeded within the next three weeks,” warns the Institut national d’excellence en santé et en services sociaux (INESSS). At the same time, more and more health workers are contracting #COVID19.
3) Although Quebec on Thursday posted a noticeable drop in #COVID19 hospitalizations (down by 36 to 1,175), the number of ICU stays rose by 13 to 165. What’s more, the province set a record 2,819 cases, a percentage of which will turn into hospitalizations in a week or two.
4) January is likely to prove the toughest month to date in the #pandemic for Montreal-area hospitals, which have had to postpone elective surgeries last spring and now to absorb the influx of #COVID19 patients. The shortage of personnel is also the worst it’s ever been.
5) Meanwhile, Quebec will close out 2020 with 1,645 #COVID19 outbreaks, up by 39 since Wednesday and one of the highest to date in the #pandemic. #COVID19 clusters were rising in every sector, most notably in the workplace and in health care.
6) Six critical #COVID19 outbreaks were flaring up in long-term care centres (CHSLDs), and and two in seniors’ residences (RPAs), mostly off-island, as the chart below makes clear. In the worst example, the Pavillon Beauharnois in the Montérégie reported 30 new cases in 24 hours.
7) And Montreal itself was not faring any better, with the city back to posting daily cases in the 900-range, a sign the second wave has still not plateaued. The city’s seven-day average was an alarming 41.15 #COVID19 cases per 100,000 residents. Please see the chart below.
8) At the neighborhood level, the centre of Montreal, the north end and the east end each recorded more than 200 #COVID19 infections in the past two days, according to the chart below. By comparison, on Sept. 1, the whole city posted only 22 cases.
9) Since Sept. 1, the unofficial start of the second wave, a total of 2,464 people in Quebec have lost their lives to #COVID19. On Thursday alone, the province declared 62 more deaths. The city of Montreal added 15 to a death toll of 3,862. Please review the chart below.
10) Faced with such a dire situation, it’s expected Quebec will proceed with giving as many people the first shots of the #COVID19 vaccine as possible rather than holding on to its reserve supply, counting on a steady stream of shipments to administer the booster shots later.
11) But those vaccine shipments will have to swell in size into the hundreds of thousands of doses, rather than the current 30,000 to 40,000, to adequately inoculate the Quebec population quickly. End of thread. Here's to a much better 2021! Happy New Year, everyone! Stay safe.
Addendum: I also wanted to thank the more than 20,000 people who have followed this daily thread since I wrote my first one on the #pandemic nearly 300 days ago. Your kind words, support and constructive criticism have been very much appreciated.
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