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Drew O.

2 Jan, 16 tweets, 3 min read

One of the things that I think is rather fascinating is the early declare aspect of WR evaluations.

As you know, Devonta Smith had the opportunity to declare last year but presumably the NFL said no thanks.

Let's dive in.

This is the overall hit rate, not accounting for draft capital. This is just everyone that has been drafted from rounds 1-7.

Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%

So lets start cutting it down.

Here are the early declares with no control for draft capital.

Top 12 - 32/110 = 29%
Top 24 - 45/110 = 41%

Here are the non-early declares

Top 12 - 22/251 = 9%
Top 24 - 36/251 = 14%

The contrast here is striking.

But we need to control for draft capital. Players generally dont declare early if they arent going to be drafted highly....

Here is our control for draft capital.

Round 7

Early Declare

Top 12 - 0/4 = 0%
Top 24 - 0/4 = 0%

Non-Early Declare

Top 12 - 3/39 = 8%
Top 24 - 4/39 = 10%

Round 6

Early Declare

Top 12 - 1/4 = 25%
Top 24 - 1/4 = 25%

Non-Early Declare

Top 12 - 0/29 = 0%
Top 24 - 0/29 = 0%

Not that it matters, but the early declare that hit used to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers, you've probably heard of him.

Round 5

Early Declare

Top 12 - 1/5 = 20%
Top 24 - 1/5 = 20%

Non-Early Declare

Top 12 - 2/34 = 6%
Top 24 - 2/34 = 6%

Not that it matters but the early declare that hit just turned Josh Allen into a competent passer.

Round 4

Early Declare

Top 12 - 1/13 = 8%
Top 24 - 3/13 = 23%

Non-Early Declare

Top 12 - 1/46 = 2%
Top 24 - 4/46 = 9%

Round 3

Early Declare

Top 12 - 2/15 = 13%
Top 24 - 3/15 = 20%

Non-Early Declare

Top 12 - 7/52 = 13%
Top 24 - 12/52 = 23%

Round 2

Early Declare

Top 12 - 11/31 = 35%
Top 24 - 15/31 = 48%

Non-Early Declare

Top 12 - 5/30 = 17%
Top 24 - 7/30 = 23%

Round 1

Early Declare

Top 12 - 16/38 = 42%
Top 24 - 22/38 = 58%

Non-Early Declare

Top 12 - 4/21 = 19%
Top 24 - 7/21 = 33%

My assumption for why the first and second rounders take such a nose dive comparatively when they are seniors is because of we aren't comparing apples to apples.

If player x deserved to be drafted in the first round as a junior he probably would have just declared as a junior.

If he went back to school and dominated as the oldest kid in class, it artificially pumps up his draft stock because we are no longer comparing him to his peers. His peers are in the NFL.

If you NEED some recency bias in your lyfe, let me show you this one.

Here are the seniors from the 2020 class.

Here are the early declares.

Which group do you want to select from?

Guess which pool your boi Devonta Smith falls into?

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More from @DFBeanCounter

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

3 Jan

People keep pointing to Terry McLaurin as this great example of a player that was held back in college because of his great teammates and that's why he didn't breakout in college..

Let's take a quick look at the studs holding him back his last two years in college..

2017 receiving yards leaders.

Feel free to stop me when I get to the studs

Parris Campbell - 584
KJ Hill - 549
Terry McLaurin - 436
Johnnie Dixon - 422
Binjimen Victor - 349
Austin Mack - 343

2018 receiving leaders

Parris Campbell - 1,063
KJ Hill - 885
Terry McLaurin - 701
Johnnie Dixon - 669

Read 4 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

3 Jan

It has been brought to my attention that there are a great many breakout age deniers #onhere or perhaps just some are uninformed.

Let's see what history can teach us about Devonta's chances, shall we?

Let's dive in.

As always, the first thing to look at is the overall hit rate.

I have 361 players in my database with a breakout age that were drafted in rounds 1-7 from 2003-2017.

The hit rate is:

Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%

So lets see if Breakout age can explain that

First we'll look at breakout age by age for the full sample from rounds 1-7 and then we'll start controlling for draft capital.

Up first - No breakout age.

Top 12 - 2/43 = 5%
Top 24 - 2/43 = 5%

Read 25 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

1 Jan

After hitting 6k last night I started reflecting on how I ended up in this fantasy football space.

I thought you might be interested in a bit of an unusual story.

It all started back in 2015. I was talking to one of my best friends about how my redraft team had performed in week 1. He mentioned that he had never been in a league and would love to give it a try.

I had always wanted to start a dynasty league but had no idea how. 💡

I promptly called everyone that I knew that played fantasy football to see if they'd be interested in trying out a dynasty league.

We ended up finding 9 people and one friend said he didnt have the time, but that he would "draft" the team and we could find someone to takeover

Read 44 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

19 Sep 20

So here is a thread on testing the new #bulletproofprospect process for wide receivers.

I took the exact same procedure and applied it as though it was 2011 and then tested it on the classes from 2012-2017 to see how it worked.

Lets dive in.

First off, here were the players it identified as bulletproof+ from 2003-2011. Please remember I only use the bulletproof process on players drafted rounds 1-3.

12/18 hit = 67%

I guess I should mention how the tiers work.

Transcendent > Generational > Bulletproof > Cornerstone > Maybe > Bust.

The tier names are NOT to be taken literally. They are just fun, so relax.

Read 33 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

23 Jun 20

By far the biggest things I look for in fantasy football is consistent excellence. Not so much from a raw production stand point, but from an underlying standpoint.

The player that I think is being massively overlooked right now is Curtis Samuel.

Lets dive in.

Samuel absolutely looks the part of a quality fantasy producer from a physical perspective.

He is thicc at 5'11 and 196 pounds for a robust 27.3 BMI.

And he has speed for dayz with his 100th percentile 4.31 - 40 yard dash

He was productive in college... (even at Ohio state, which I've heard is nearly impossible to do and that it should never be held against anyone that wasnt productive)

PS. Pretty much EVERY good WR in the NFL was productive in college. The rest are pretenders.. 😋

Read 14 tweets

Drew O.

@DFBeanCounter

16 Jun 20

Going through the QB's for my June rankings on Patreon and it seems like month after month after month I am substantially higher on Matthew Stafford than consensus.

Lets talk about that.

(short thread)

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1141080960374468608?s=20

Here are Stafford's fantasy football finishes by year since he entered the NFL.

2018 really stands out in a bad way. Please keep in mind he played most of 2018 with a broken bone in his back.